Stomach punch! Detroit is killing me. If they lose on Sunday to Minnesota, we'll have seen 3 of the 4 worst 4-game home losing streaks in the past 4 years this season. Vancouver already lost 9 in a row at home, 4 on a chase of this system. Washington lost 4 at home, badly. Now Detroit is on the brink of the worst 4-game home losing streak. (going by the odds) Not to mention, Edmonton has dropped 3 in a row at home and faces Vancouver next. Ouch.
I did the back checking since the lockout and shootouts - this system did work. But I feel like this season is the "return to the mean".
Definitely will do some data analysis after this season.
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Stomach punch! Detroit is killing me. If they lose on Sunday to Minnesota, we'll have seen 3 of the 4 worst 4-game home losing streaks in the past 4 years this season. Vancouver already lost 9 in a row at home, 4 on a chase of this system. Washington lost 4 at home, badly. Now Detroit is on the brink of the worst 4-game home losing streak. (going by the odds) Not to mention, Edmonton has dropped 3 in a row at home and faces Vancouver next. Ouch.
I did the back checking since the lockout and shootouts - this system did work. But I feel like this season is the "return to the mean".
Definitely will do some data analysis after this season.
Whats the damage with the units after the Detroit fiasco last night?
Well, there is no way in hell anyone could have taken Detroit straight up because those odds were just ridiculous.
This is what I have for Detroit in my tracking spreadsheet:
G1: 1.45
G2: 1.602
G3: 1.61
All regulation odds. So, added all up this means down 21.6 units
because of the chase. Of course there is a 4th game coming up but
there is not enough profit left to chase again. Anyways, like I said,
this was to be expected and this is why I was tracking the system. So
that those who stopped at the right time when this was hot could see
how badly the season ends off when chasing. The same goes for any kind
of strategy , whatever the criteria is.
Unlucky - You are correct in
saying that this is probably the worst stretch of home game series
losses we've seen in quite a while. On the flip side, the system has
done pretty well in past seasons so perhaps this is a reason for the
08-09 season going down the drain so fast + hard.
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Quote Originally Posted by nojuice:
Whats the damage with the units after the Detroit fiasco last night?
Well, there is no way in hell anyone could have taken Detroit straight up because those odds were just ridiculous.
This is what I have for Detroit in my tracking spreadsheet:
G1: 1.45
G2: 1.602
G3: 1.61
All regulation odds. So, added all up this means down 21.6 units
because of the chase. Of course there is a 4th game coming up but
there is not enough profit left to chase again. Anyways, like I said,
this was to be expected and this is why I was tracking the system. So
that those who stopped at the right time when this was hot could see
how badly the season ends off when chasing. The same goes for any kind
of strategy , whatever the criteria is.
Unlucky - You are correct in
saying that this is probably the worst stretch of home game series
losses we've seen in quite a while. On the flip side, the system has
done pretty well in past seasons so perhaps this is a reason for the
08-09 season going down the drain so fast + hard.
Well, there is no way in hell anyone could have taken Detroit straight up because those odds were just ridiculous.
This is what I have for Detroit in my tracking spreadsheet:
G1: 1.45
G2: 1.602
G3: 1.61
All regulation odds. So, added all up this means down 21.6 units
because of the chase. Of course there is a 4th game coming up but
there is not enough profit left to chase again. Anyways, like I said,
this was to be expected and this is why I was tracking the system. So
that those who stopped at the right time when this was hot could see
how badly the season ends off when chasing. The same goes for any kind
of strategy , whatever the criteria is.
Unlucky - You are correct in
saying that this is probably the worst stretch of home game series
losses we've seen in quite a while. On the flip side, the system has
done pretty well in past seasons so perhaps this is a reason for the
08-09 season going down the drain so fast + hard.
There is a way that someone could have taken DET straight up. I did. Thankfully, I had to back down the bet on game 3 so that I could afford game 4 vs. MIN. So, I haven't lost as much as I would have. If I would have played game 3 for the full amount, I would be down 62 units! With a line of about -270 Sunday, a loss would result in a 230 unit loss!!!!!!
I've been thinking about sample size a bit, and have come to realize that 3 to 4 years is still a small sample size. When one streak can knock out 30 to 40 units, it only takes a couple of those to ruin a season.
For those that care, I plan on having the rest of my hockey bankroll on DET on Sunday. Not sure if I'm playing the ML or PL. I want to play the PL to try to win back more, but I'm really scared of DET winning by only 1 goal. MIN needs this game more, but damn, DET is so due to win.
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
Well, there is no way in hell anyone could have taken Detroit straight up because those odds were just ridiculous.
This is what I have for Detroit in my tracking spreadsheet:
G1: 1.45
G2: 1.602
G3: 1.61
All regulation odds. So, added all up this means down 21.6 units
because of the chase. Of course there is a 4th game coming up but
there is not enough profit left to chase again. Anyways, like I said,
this was to be expected and this is why I was tracking the system. So
that those who stopped at the right time when this was hot could see
how badly the season ends off when chasing. The same goes for any kind
of strategy , whatever the criteria is.
Unlucky - You are correct in
saying that this is probably the worst stretch of home game series
losses we've seen in quite a while. On the flip side, the system has
done pretty well in past seasons so perhaps this is a reason for the
08-09 season going down the drain so fast + hard.
There is a way that someone could have taken DET straight up. I did. Thankfully, I had to back down the bet on game 3 so that I could afford game 4 vs. MIN. So, I haven't lost as much as I would have. If I would have played game 3 for the full amount, I would be down 62 units! With a line of about -270 Sunday, a loss would result in a 230 unit loss!!!!!!
I've been thinking about sample size a bit, and have come to realize that 3 to 4 years is still a small sample size. When one streak can knock out 30 to 40 units, it only takes a couple of those to ruin a season.
For those that care, I plan on having the rest of my hockey bankroll on DET on Sunday. Not sure if I'm playing the ML or PL. I want to play the PL to try to win back more, but I'm really scared of DET winning by only 1 goal. MIN needs this game more, but damn, DET is so due to win.
There is a way that someone could have taken DET straight up. I did. Thankfully, I had to back down the bet on game 3 so that I could afford game 4 vs. MIN. So, I haven't lost as much as I would have. If I would have played game 3 for the full amount, I would be down 62 units! With a line of about -270 Sunday, a loss would result in a 230 unit loss!!!!!!
I've been thinking about sample size a bit, and have come to realize that 3 to 4 years is still a small sample size. When one streak can knock out 30 to 40 units, it only takes a couple of those to ruin a season.
For those that care, I plan on having the rest of my hockey bankroll on DET on Sunday. Not sure if I'm playing the ML or PL. I want to play the PL to try to win back more, but I'm really scared of DET winning by only 1 goal. MIN needs this game more, but damn, DET is so due to win.
Whoa, shit. I'm assuming you can't play regulation lines right? That is one of the key points I was trying to make throughout the tracking. There is no way you can beat the odds by playing straight up moneylines with teams at home for three consecutive games. Sure, most of the time, the team favored by more than -200 will win the first or second game, but it is foolish to think that the team will NOT lose 3 in a row. Looking back at the season so far, I can assure you that playing the regulation did not lead to any important losses. What it does is limit the overall chasing amounts to be considerably less than what you'll be putting up to recuperate with Detroit. BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by Unlucky187:
There is a way that someone could have taken DET straight up. I did. Thankfully, I had to back down the bet on game 3 so that I could afford game 4 vs. MIN. So, I haven't lost as much as I would have. If I would have played game 3 for the full amount, I would be down 62 units! With a line of about -270 Sunday, a loss would result in a 230 unit loss!!!!!!
I've been thinking about sample size a bit, and have come to realize that 3 to 4 years is still a small sample size. When one streak can knock out 30 to 40 units, it only takes a couple of those to ruin a season.
For those that care, I plan on having the rest of my hockey bankroll on DET on Sunday. Not sure if I'm playing the ML or PL. I want to play the PL to try to win back more, but I'm really scared of DET winning by only 1 goal. MIN needs this game more, but damn, DET is so due to win.
Whoa, shit. I'm assuming you can't play regulation lines right? That is one of the key points I was trying to make throughout the tracking. There is no way you can beat the odds by playing straight up moneylines with teams at home for three consecutive games. Sure, most of the time, the team favored by more than -200 will win the first or second game, but it is foolish to think that the team will NOT lose 3 in a row. Looking back at the season so far, I can assure you that playing the regulation did not lead to any important losses. What it does is limit the overall chasing amounts to be considerably less than what you'll be putting up to recuperate with Detroit. BOL
I have money in Matchbook and 5dimes, so I do have some options. Glad I waited until now to look at the lines: DET is down to -220 on 5Dimes and -212 on Matchbook. I'm almost certainly just going with the Money Line. With this much on the line, I can't afford to see DET win in OT and lose my bet. If DET loses today, then I deserve to lose my bankroll on this system.
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I have money in Matchbook and 5dimes, so I do have some options. Glad I waited until now to look at the lines: DET is down to -220 on 5Dimes and -212 on Matchbook. I'm almost certainly just going with the Money Line. With this much on the line, I can't afford to see DET win in OT and lose my bet. If DET loses today, then I deserve to lose my bankroll on this system.
I have money in Matchbook and 5dimes, so I do have some options. Glad I waited until now to look at the lines: DET is down to -220 on 5Dimes and -212 on Matchbook. I'm almost certainly just going with the Money Line. With this much on the line, I can't afford to see DET win in OT and lose my bet. If DET loses today, then I deserve to lose my bankroll on this system.
Nice. They almost choked the 2 goal lead but Hossa puts it in even before regulation ends. That would have been crazy with the regulation line.
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Quote Originally Posted by Unlucky187:
I have money in Matchbook and 5dimes, so I do have some options. Glad I waited until now to look at the lines: DET is down to -220 on 5Dimes and -212 on Matchbook. I'm almost certainly just going with the Money Line. With this much on the line, I can't afford to see DET win in OT and lose my bet. If DET loses today, then I deserve to lose my bankroll on this system.
Nice. They almost choked the 2 goal lead but Hossa puts it in even before regulation ends. That would have been crazy with the regulation line.
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