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NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus 3

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Captain
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Posted: #26
Thanks Eli, i understand where you're coming from shoulda taken the ML, amateur mistake. Thanks for the advice, you are a wise man. another quick question, is Fla a fade next game? or is it whichever the person decides to choose?
 
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Posted: #27
Looch - Yeah, basically, that's what I was hinting at with my comment about Boston. Hopefully, it works out better next time for you.

As for Florida, keep in mind this is an ongoing chase since January 19th. The money on Philly tonight was only to recuperate the losses from the two previous games that were not winners before the all-star break. So, if you had not been following back then, there was no need to be chasing by fading Florida tonight. They did a good job beating Philly and so it will be interesting to see what expert decides to do with their next final game of the series.

 I, personally, had Florida to finally win a game at home ( SEE MY WAGERLINE PICKS ) so my chase is over as well but expert will either have to stick to the system or handicap the next game to try and close off the chase. Let's wait and see what happens that night.

Seahawk, I felt for ya when the big bad Bruins waited till overtime to put the Caps away for good. Now, the Sharks are leading 2 - 0 so I'll count it as a loss but it doesn't seem too bad of a loss so look out for the Avs during the next games.

Hope everyone enjoyed the hockey tonight cause this was some great entertainment
 
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Posted: #28
Thanks guys. Clean sweep here. I actually had FLA. I'm not exactly sure why you're fading them when they've already lost the last 2 home games.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by marnypoly:

Thanks guys. Clean sweep here. I actually had FLA. I'm not exactly sure why you're fading them when they've already lost the last 2 home games.


Yeah, that was my angle for backing them tonight. The explanation is bad timing really. Expert changed his rule for fading bottom 8 home teams in the middle of the chase which can probably lead to a series loss. This being based on the fact that another covers member spoke about the original system having only one loss so far.
 
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Posted: #30
I was on Florida by mistake and it hit . Another day tommorow lets get money guys!
 
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Posted: #31
Too many cooks in the kitchen guys.Who are we listening to and who has the final word?
 
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Posted: #32
Vancouver tonight?
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:

Too many cooks in the kitchen guys.Who are we listening to and who has the final word?

If you just follow the original system, you would only have one loss right now.  Florida could have been played either way, but switching in the middle will just get you burnt.

 
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Posted: #34
I have Van at -190, in know its not at -200 which u suggested as the cut off Eli, but whos taking ML? who's taking Reg. Line?
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:

Too many cooks in the kitchen guys.Who are we listening to and who has the final word?


Not too many cooks. Too many ingredients in the kitchen.

 In this thread, expert clearly explains what he plays and WHY. Other members will share their thoughts on the game and which variation they are playing. The facts right now are that the original system of fading a strict list of 8 teams has only one loss. If you wanna try it out, go ahead. Other options include adjusting the list of teams to fade based on CURRENT home standings. All personal choices here.

Like rdomer points out, switching the way you choose plays in the middle of a series was very dangerous and might lead to a loss.

looch - I'd say it depends on the size of the initial bankroll and the level of risk you are prepared to endure. It's not easy laying a huge amount of units on the 3rd or 4th game when you lay so much juice for 3 games in a row. But, the level of risk does also increase by asking teams to win in regulation. For Vancouver, I'm gonna go out and say that it's time for them to start winning games so I'll be playing regulation.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by rdomer:

If you just follow the original system, you would only have one loss right now.  Florida could have been played either way, but switching in the middle will just get you burnt.


Agree. If you're switching off then you're not even chasing anymore. Now you're capping.

So VAN is the only chase starting today.
 
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Posted: #37
Yeah, switching in the middle is a recipe for disaster. 
 
The Canucks can't let us down again, right?  I'm chasing them for $100 win. 
 
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Posted: #38
Guys 2 more wins in the column with Columbus and Boston, i thought i seen someone say stick to the original plan not use this years records so thats what I did by taking Phil..........
anyways thats what were are doing from now on no capping because it just confuses everyone

Jan 28         we have one game
i posted in the last thread sorry about that

Nashville
Vancouver  -175 ( Vancouver is not in the bottom 8 home teams from last year, but they can't get a win and the Canucks are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a favorite. But i am sticking to the original plan as to nevr go against the one with the home chase and is not in the bottom 8

Any concerns about this pick Eli, Seahawk or anyone else would be greatly appreciated 
 
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Posted: #39
Eli, I was happy with last night.  Columbus was huge, I pushed on Boston and Charlotte pulled off the upset in the NBA (Morrison system play). 
 
I have to learn to trust the system more and not be so scared.  I think the recent memory of Vancouver is still haunting and making me a little more gun-shy than I should be.  Keep up the great stuff guys and GO CANUCKS!!!
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:


Any concerns about this pick Eli, Seahawk or anyone else would be greatly appreciated 


I think you got it set up right this time. Chasing the home win with Vancouver makes the most sense. The concern was more directed towards switching strategy in the middle of the series but it's not over yet .I'm wondering what the play is gonna be tomorrow though. Montreal hasn't won a game on their road trip so far and you'll be fading Florida once again I presume which is a play I like very much.

Sea - You're not paying to get Morrison's picks for his NBA chases right? Vancouver at -175 sounds good and I'm hoping we won't have to chase too much with them Canucks .
 
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Posted: #41
Eli & Expert,
 
I just played Vancouver -175 ($131.25 to win $75).  I think you're exactly right to jump on the Canucks. 
 
Of course I'll be stressing about it a bit (because they've been awful at home lately), but I can't see them losing 4 more in a row at home (Nashville, Minnesota, and Carolina bring great opportunities - if it gets to Chicago then I'll really be freaking out)! 
 
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Posted: #42
Eli, I'm not paying for those picks.  It's an easy system to learn and do on your own and it's 47-0 this season. 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

Eli, I'm not paying for those picks.  It's an easy system to learn and do on your own and it's 47-0 this season. 


Yeah, thats exactly why I was asking .


 
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Posted: #44
Wow. Nice chokejob by VAN.

Sharks are a play but man is that a lot of juice.
 
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Posted: #45
man, Van better not become losses #1 and 2, they could become the only flaw in the system.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:



Nashville
Vancouver  -175        


Another great choke job. Something fishy going on in Vancouver. I don't get it. Team should be playing much better than this given what they have and what they were against yesterday.

Might have a problem with the Sharks if they decide to take some time off the next couple of games. Even the REGULATION line is set at -170 so caution ahead.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:



Another great choke job. Something fishy going on in Vancouver. I don't get it. Team should be playing much better than this given what they have and what they were against yesterday.

Might have a problem with the Sharks if they decide to take some time off the next couple of games. Even the REGULATION line is set at -170 so caution ahead.
  I might  NOT play any games with Vancouver (home or away). They burnt me to many times this year, they are just one of those teams this season.  You realize they LOST their last 7 games in a row.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by ketut:

   You realize they LOST their last 7 games in a row.


Yeah but I consider this even better when chasing a home win. Really , what better way to end a horrible streak like that than at home in front of your fans and against a decent team that is NOT good on the road.

The problem with Vancouver right now is the line. Being favored by -175 to win the game is gonna kill anyone chasing them so that's part of the problem as well.
 
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Posted: #49
ya chasing the Sharks almost have to take the PL, wouldn't do it but you gotta lay alot of juice betting on them. PL is set at -105.
 
 
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Posted: #50
ok guys see why handicapping should be used the first hint was 0-7 as a favorite now if i would of handicapped this game it would of been over already but everyones complaining to stick with the system but it was obvious, Vancouver is in a slump and will be unless they become a dog at home watch, thats usually the way sports are.
Anyways I have to get the win in florida if i do not hit the Florida side i will be devistated
here we go
Jan 29

Phoenix
SJose play the puck line -0.5 in reguation


Montreal
Florida  +127   this is a hard call but hope fully I am right, now i am suppose to fade this team but this year they have been better then average I just want to close this out
good luck
I will be back with the final call later
Eli what do you think of the florida pick?

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