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NHL Road chase

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Posted: #76

whoops on the "in quote writing" etc ^^^

 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:


(A) bet tonight on Phoenix (-250) +1.5 PL $315 to win $126 (96+30) 

Good luck

Cashed + recovered losses with another (A) winner tonight

New Labby line: 

 x-30-30-x

25-25-43-55-70-79-96

25-25-25-25-79-70

Two more (A) bets Tuesday night on Edmonton and Florida, both will be to win $60

I'll post the final lines tomorrow morning again


 
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Posted: #78

 x-30-30-x

25-25-43-55-70-79-96

25-25-25-25-79-70

 

Bets for Tuesday:

Edmonton +1.5 (-200) $120 to win $60

Florida +1.5 (-210) $126 to win $60

 

Good luck

 
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Posted: #79
Florida is down to -250/-260 on my books, fwiw.
 
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Posted: #80
Yikes, glad I got it early
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

 x-30-30-x

25-25-43-55-70-79-96

25-25-25-25-79-70

 

Bets for Tuesday:

Edmonton +1.5 (-200) $120 to win $60

Florida +1.5 (-210) $126 to win $60

New Labby line:

30-30-30-30-63 (1st cleared line)

25-25-43-55-70-79-96-63

25-25-25-25-79-70

Bets for 10/27

(A) Washington (-130 ML) $121 to win $93

(B) N.J. +1.5 (-225) $198 to win $85

Good luck

 
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Posted: #82
typo:  N.J. bet should be to win $88, not $85
 
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Posted: #83
Okay...here we go. 

I posted a question a few days ago concerning RPI positions and when not to play. I specifically asked about if we run into (going against) a top 3 RPI team on a chase. The answer was to not play that particular bet. 
Okay, my guess is that has never been tested because it would be so tedious to recreate RPI standings throughout the past seasons. It is probably more of a guideline as it is logical not to play against really good teams. Still probably not tested.
Tonight we have a situation with a New Jersey and it is not a good one! They started this 3+ game Road Trip 4th from the bottom of the RPI, so...play on.
However, Kovalchuk and friends lost that A bet and now stand 29th (2nd from the bottom). So...the question remains: Do we abort this particular series and take the A loss with us due to Jersey completely underachieving at this time? Or do we play on Jersey because we know they are better than this?

I love this system! But I want to know ALL the rules to it. Since I started playing it on Oct. 13 my record is 14-4
11-4 on A bets
2-0 on B bets
1-0 on C bets (I played Atlanta on a C bet on Oct. 15 because smdio had it listed as a C from 2 previous losses)

What I'm getting at - is not playing on bottom 3 RPI teams one of the filters or not? AND is it a filter only to begin a Road Trip or does it fall into play once a team dips into the abyss (like Jersey here)?

I'm all about taking the emotion out of the wager and going with what the proven system says to do. Not bitching at all, just want to know what the rules of the system are.

Good times!
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by LSU2thBone:

Okay...here we go. 

I posted a question a few days ago concerning RPI positions and when not to play. I specifically asked about if we run into (going against) a top 3 RPI team on a chase. The answer was to not play that particular bet. 
Okay, my guess is that has never been tested because it would be so tedious to recreate RPI standings throughout the past seasons. It is probably more of a guideline as it is logical not to play against really good teams. Still probably not tested.
Tonight we have a situation with a New Jersey and it is not a good one! They started this 3+ game Road Trip 4th from the bottom of the RPI, so...play on.
However, Kovalchuk and friends lost that A bet and now stand 29th (2nd from the bottom). So...the question remains: Do we abort this particular series and take the A loss with us due to Jersey completely underachieving at this time? Or do we play on Jersey because we know they are better than this?

I love this system! But I want to know ALL the rules to it. Since I started playing it on Oct. 13 my record is 14-4
11-4 on A bets
2-0 on B bets
1-0 on C bets (I played Atlanta on a C bet on Oct. 15 because smdio had it listed as a C from 2 previous losses)

What I'm getting at - is not playing on bottom 3 RPI teams one of the filters or not? AND is it a filter only to begin a Road Trip or does it fall into play once a team dips into the abyss (like Jersey here)?

I'm all about taking the emotion out of the wager and going with what the proven system says to do. Not bitching at all, just want to know what the rules of the system are.

Good times!

You gotta understand, whether JM says something or not, I don't believe it.  Everything I wager is based on hard-tested back results that I spent hours and hours on.  I wouldn't just "trust" JM's filters, or even any of his systems, without checking them out for the past few years.

From the research I did, I found that if a team is -outside- of the bottom 3 RPI when the series STARTS, you can play that team all the way through.  It's very rare that they team will bounce out of the bottom 3 RPI over the course of a 3-game series, but it does indeed happen, as we just saw with N.J.

But since N.J. was 4th from the bottom when the NYR series started, they still qualify as a play under this system. 

Might N.J. lose against the Sharks?  Possibly.  But I'm going to play them anyway.  I know their record is miserable and they've been playing like shit, but I think it might be time for a turn-around.  Especially against the struggling Sharks.

If they lose it's not really "too" big of a deal.  The Labby will eventually recover our losses while still making us profits.  Personally, I'm not worried about the (B) bet tonight and think the Devils will at least cover the 1.5 PL

But we'll see.  Appreciate the questions though

 
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Posted: #85
smdio,

Solid answer to (in my opinion) a solid question. That's why I asked because I did not see anywhere you stated at the START of the 3-game stretch. I understand and yes, they have to turn it around at some point. And thx to Labb, it will not be the end of the world.

I'm on Brodeur!
 
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Posted: #86

We're supposed to take emotion out of the gambling process, because that's where and when you lose money

But in this case, the system is saying to make the play, ALONG WITH my emotions.  I think the Devils are a half decent team and playing far under their potential.  I think the rest of the last couple days will help, and they'll want to start the West-coast trip with a solid victory over a solid team.  I believe they'll even win straight up

We shall see

 
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Posted: #87
NJ gettin smoked. well, theres always tomorrow for us.
 
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Posted: #88

It'll all balance out in the end!  I'm certainly staying away from their (C) bet though, that's for sure

New Labby line:

30-30-30-30 (reset #2)

25-25-43-55-70-79-96-63-99

25-25-25-25-79-70-99

No bets untils 10/30, when we resume with Pittsburgh, Nashville, NYI, Boston, and T.B., all on (A) bets

You're welcome to do a (C) bet on N.J. if you want, but personally I'm skipping all (C) bets until each teams second road trip

 
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Posted: #89
So much for emotions...haha

I am Runnin' With The Devils (can't you just hear David Lee Roth?)!

The obvious loot is on anyone against the Devs...BUT this is sport, and usually the obvious ends up hurting you. 
(Just ask Cliff Lee and all the Rangers and Under backers from last night!)
NJ is pathetic, but the system doesn't take that into consideration. The system is based on historical results that make the probability of NJ losing by 2 again to be pretty slim. Plus the Labb.

We all do what we feel best.

Devils vs Anaheim should be able to keep it within 2 goals in their worst of years.
 
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Posted: #90
FYI, B bet on FLA tonight
 
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Posted: #91

Yes, totally almost missed Florida

(B) bet on Florida +1.5 (-260) $322.49 to win $124 (25+99)

 
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Posted: #92

Idk about the Devils LSU.  I told myself that I wouldn't place a (C) bet until the second road trip for each team.  Going against that now will probably kill me :/

 
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Posted: #93
Don't bet 'em then...stick to your guns.

Great pick up on Florida Joke! Coulda missed a winner!
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

It'll all balance out in the end!  I'm certainly staying away from their (C) bet though, that's for sure

New Labby line:

30-30-30-30 (reset #2)

25-25-43-55-70-79-96-63-99

25-25-25-25-79-70-99

No bets untils 10/30, when we resume with Pittsburgh, Nashville, NYI, Boston, and T.B., all on (A) bets

You're welcome to do a (C) bet on N.J. if you want, but personally I'm skipping all (C) bets until each teams second road trip



Not sure why this A line is resetx2

10/25 Line A was X-30-30-X.
10/26 win A edm 120-60 and lose A fla 126-60.
So Line A=X-X-X-63?

You have 30-30-30-30-63 (1st cleared line).
10/27 you won A Washington 121-93 and have
30-30-30-30 (reset #2)
Shouldn't it be X-30-30-30?

Sorry for so many Qs.
 
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Posted: #95

Yeah post #88 is completely wrong.  Nfi where I got that from. 

Current line should be:

x-30-30-30

25-25-43-55-70-79-96-63-99

25-25-25-25-79-70-99

We're still on the 1st cleared line on (A) and have yet to clear a second line there

Nice catch.  I think all your questions threw me off and I looked at a previous post, and updated the lines from there

 
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Posted: #96
smdio pretty sure I'm on the same page with you now. I apologize to you and all followers for cluttering up your thread.  My goal was to fully understand your labby methodology and I believe I have.
 
Is this where you are now?

A1 cleared 25s
A2 cleared 25s
A3 cleared 25s
A4 X-30-30-30
10/30 A pit to win 60 (ML if favored or PL if dog)
10/30 A nsh to win 60
10/30 A nyi to win 60
10/30 A bos to win 60
10/30 A TB to win 60

B1 25-25-43-55-70-79-96-63-99
10/28 (B) bet on Florida +1.5 (-260) $322.49 to win $124 (25+99)

C1 25-25-25-25-79-70-99
Optional play (smdio not playing):
10/29 (C) bet on NJ +1.5 to win $124 (25+99)
 
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Posted: #97

You got it, good job!

Lots of action on 10/30, cant wait!

 
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Posted: #98

Huge flop on the Panthers.  Absolutely disgraceful.

x-30-30-30

25-25-43-55-70-79-96-63-99-161

25-25-25-25-79-70-99-161

(C) bet on N.J. to win $186 (25+161)

I won't be playing N.J. but if anyone wants to, it's an official play

 
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Posted: #99
labby question for smd... if  bets hit at a high rate why not switch th B bet to the A & the NEW line to the C? Seems the A clears faster. New to Labby so, whats your take?
 
 
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Posted: #100
I'm sticking with the system and rolling with New Jersey. I see this hockey team breaking out of their slump and putting up 3-4 goals tonight in lovely Anaheim. Just hope they don't give up 5-6!

Florida @ Montreal tomorrow night.

We're already getting ourselves into a sticking situation with a couple C games back-to-back. But the reason to play this system is it's historical record. I am going to trust that this season is not a major aberration that blows this system up. I'll go with what history says will happen.

Good Luck to all brave soldiers
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