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Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14

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Posted: #226
San Jose are at 1.28 tomorrow. Arghh! Not sure exactly what that is in US odds but it's nearly -400!
 
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Posted: #227

Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

San Jose are at 1.28 tomorrow. Arghh! Not sure exactly what that is in US odds but it's nearly -400!

I'm seeing -320 or -330 in Vegas right now.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #228
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I'm seeing -320 or -330 in Vegas right now.



I'm wondering if it might make more sense to just make up what we lost on Game A on the next Game B instead.  If San Jose loses that's going to make a really messy Game C.
 
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Posted: #229

Quote Originally Posted by TwistedMath:



I'm wondering if it might make more sense to just make up what we lost on Game A on the next Game B instead.  If San Jose loses that's going to make a really messy Game C.

That is why I play this on a labby line. I can no longer stomach the big bets on C games with high juice.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #230
hey guys. i'll be following this year. sorry i started last years thread ditched you guys.  china sucks! wasn't able to log in but i moved to korea now so its all good. thanks for keeping this system up last season dan!
 
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Posted: #231
San Jose is the only play tomorrow?
 
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Posted: #232
I see BOS and CAR, but doesn't look like Car will qualify. So 

SJS (B) vs buff
bos (a) vs dal 

 
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Posted: #233
I wonder how this system would fare by playing the puckline instead of the moneyline? Obviously thered be a few more losses but thered be WAY less juice and ALOT of + money when you win....particularly if it hits on a b or c game.
 
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Posted: #234
PL has been tested and its not profitable. People ask that question every time a B or C bet comes up and anything over -250 is the juice. Even look at this year. We have had a ton of wins just from 1 goal. We have not had a lot of bets this year, do a small test and see if you profit this year, I dont think you do. 
 
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Posted: #235

Tuesday: SJ on the B game (-400 Really?), Boston A game. Carolina does not qualify.

For Wednesday: Possible Anaheim play and Colorado has a chance at the double dip on Wednesday.

 

Regular system:

Record 18-0

A: 16-3

B: 1-1 (SJ pending)

C: 1-0

Double dip:

Record 6-0

A: 4-2

B: 1-1

C: 1-0

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #236
-400 is crazy....
 
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Posted: #237

Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:

-400 is crazy....

Yep, not sure what I'm going to do with that if anything. Was considering maybe just parlay the two tonight or playing the Puck line at -125. I don't like parlays on a chase system.

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #238
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Yep, not sure what I'm going to do with that if anything. Was considering maybe just parlay the two tonight or playing the Puck line at -125. I don't like parlays on a chase system.

 


I have it at -500 


 
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Posted: #239
Quote Originally Posted by dallasm:


I have it at -500 


I'm now seeing -550 at some places (LVH, William Hill). Crazy. Still -400 at Caesars/Rio.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #240
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I'm now seeing -550 at some places (LVH, William Hill). Crazy. Still -400 at Caesars/Rio.


-390 on Matchbook (+1% commission)
-405 on Pinny.

I'm splitting by bet between BOS, SJ ML & SJ PL. 
 
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Posted: #241
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:


-390 on Matchbook (+1% commission)
-405 on Pinny.

I'm splitting by bet between BOS, SJ ML & SJ PL. 

That might be a good way to play it. At -400 a team needs to win 80% of the time for it to be a good bet. I actually show SJ as a little higher than that to win (83%), so the line is dead on.

I did something similar but split my Bos bet between Bos, Bos/SJ parlay and Bos/SJ PL parlay. If Bos wins I can't lose money, if they lose, I lose less than I would have if I bet them without the parlays.

On a side note, I'm not a good handicapper I'll admit that, but I really like Edm tonight @ Fla. Did a little play on the ML and the Pl (+1.5) on Edm. I show them winning 52% of the time and they are +115. At +115 you only need to win 46.5% of the time so it's a value play. Show them covering the PL 77% of the time, but the line is -255.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #242

Quote Originally Posted by trychome:

hey guys. i'll be following this year. sorry i started last years thread ditched you guys.  china sucks! wasn't able to log in but i moved to korea now so its all good. thanks for keeping this system up last season dan!

Hey Trychome, glad to see you back. Korea sounds like it would be better than China! Hope everything is good.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #243
 
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Posted: #244

Tuesday results: SJ somehow loses on the B game goes to C game Thursday against Van. Boston loses on the A game, goes to B game Thursday against Florida. 

For Wednesday: Possible Anaheim play and Colorado has a chance at the double dip.

Regular system:

Record 18-0

A: 16-4

B: 1-2 (Boston pending)

C: 1-0 (SJ pending)

Double dip:

Record 6-0

A: 4-2

B: 1-1

C: 1-0

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #245
gonna do the same parlay on thurs.. hammer time.. lol
 
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Posted: #246

Quote Originally Posted by 730champ:

gonna do the same parlay on thurs.. hammer time.. lol

Glad I went light on that game. Wow, unreal. 51 SOG for SJ.

Thursday could be interesting. We have Bos, SJ for sure and possible plays on Det, Ott and Stl. Anaheim and Colo will both be plays Wed.

At least my Edmonton pick came through. Getting some good results using a simulator program. 30-17 since Oct 24. This includes ML, O/U and PL.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #247
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Glad I went light on that game. Wow, unreal. 51 SOG for SJ.

Thursday could be interesting. We have Bos, SJ for sure and possible plays on Det, Ott and Stl. Anaheim and Colo will both be plays Wed.

At least my Edmonton pick came through. Getting some good results using a simulator program. 30-17 since Oct 24. This includes ML, O/U and PL.

Dan...would love it if you posted those plays...I am also not a good hockey capper and need all of the help I can get...THANKS!!!

 
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Posted: #248
What is this simulator program you are talking about? Is it your own personal module? I would like hearing some of these plays. Love action.
 
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Posted: #249
The simulator is something I've been working on for a few years. NHL is the first attempt at tracking the plays. What I try to find is value plays when comparing win% with betting line. For example an even money bet needs to win 50% of the time to break even, so after running the simulator if a team is expected to win 55% or more of the time there is value in that bet. I'm really not that confident in it yet and I'd hate to post picks and cost anyone even a penny of their money. I did mention Edmonton as a play yesterday in post 241. I will leave this thread to the system but might add a note about any game that really stands out after running the simulations. I need to account for injuries, starting goalies and updated stats before I can run the simulations. Takes some time each day and it's unfortunate that my real job gets in the way of my sports investing.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
 
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Posted: #250

For Wednesday: Anaheim A game and Colorado on the double dip A game.

Let's get some $ back before the heavy action on Thursday.

Regular system:

Record 18-0

A: 16-4

B: 1-2 (Boston pending)

C: 1-0 (SJ pending)

Double dip:

Record 6-0

A: 4-2

B: 1-1

C: 1-0

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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