U.S. Open Preview/Picks Thread

Can't believe Lopez was able to win over 11.5 games after that stinker of a 1st set. So evened up for the day despite losing the big bet.

U.S. Open Profit Margin: -2.83

Wednesday, I'm going to look at some games totals in 1st Sets once they are posted in my live platform to look at. Also wanting to see if maybe my book will post some doubles totals, although they have not so far. 

ATP: Stanislas Wawrinka- Kevin Anderson

We spoke a lot at Roland Garros about how focused Stanislas Wawrinka had been all season about winning the French Open and how he had targeted that above everything else and had even been able to put aside off court issues which have been well documented and have continued, to take the one title he wanted above all others. He has not played a huge amount of tennis since , just four events, seven for his opponent and it must be hard for Wawrinka to not feel that targets for the year have been achieved and in truth, given all the other issues he has had to deal with, he could probably do with a break. Anyway, regardless of that, he will have to be at his best to win today.

Kevin Anderson leads the h2h 4-3, but has all the h2h momentum having won the last four meetings, three of which have been played in the last 12 months, including post RG at Queen's and he also took a set in the two losses before that, so continual improvement in those last six match ups. The last five meetings have produced seven tie breaks, with two other sets going to 12 games and with the South African serving as well as anyone with 25 aces versus Andy Murray in R4 and not being broken in R2 or 3, small margins and tie breaks are likely to again decide this and those are Anderson's forte. He came into this tournament on the back of a confidence boosting win in a lower level event and has got winning momentum with nine staright victories and I favour him to reach double digits this evening.

Wawrinka is a late developer and took a long while to come from out of the very long shadow cast by countryman Roger Federer, but he has a losing record lifetime versus top 20 players on all surfaces and just a 37% win record against top 20 taller players and I will take that trend to continue and Anderson, who is applying for dual US- South African citizenship to post another "upset" win in his "new" nation.

Kevin Anderson to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 2.375 + , there is 2.42 with Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro and 2.46 for low liquidity ( currently) on Betfair.

 

Valid points there, but Stan has always started quite slow in slams, take for instance the AUS Open and French he won he dropped sets against Lajovic and other poor players. If he doesn't heat up today Anderson will take him but if Stan improves he could definitely win this, 4hrs 18mins against Murray and all the fatigue that brings will be a heavy load

So serious, i want you to pick winners. Don't be sad.

I think Anderson is going to burn a lot of people today. Everyone is hung up on the recent head-2-head and seem to be overlooking the two big factors I see at least; fatigue from playing Murray and this is Anderson's first Slam QF. Every once in a blue moon, guys will step up and go to the SFs, but more often than not it takes even the BEST i.e. Federer several Slam QFs before they break through to the SFs.

9.9

I think a lot of them have started going the Federer route of playing less. The top tier guys are mostly just playing the two Masters events.I think eventually Top 10 guys who have a clue will pick either playing Rogers Cup or Cincinnati and not do both unless they feel they need the match play. 

Well my daily picks may have stunk, but at least I can try to help by warning guys off of a pick.

Here's some motivation for you EP, I'm fading all your match betting plays now. I will post my plays against you from now on. You're being a bit of an SBR fade material type like person hhhmmmm k. SNAP OUT OF IT.

9.10

How about including insight on the selections? 

Doubles that's an even matchup at worst. Should be close & the team I selected is in a good rhythm.

Ice Ice baby. Cold streak for the last half of the Open continues. Very disappointed with that effort. Doubtful to play anything else unless they put up a doubles total at my book for the Final. 

I think Stan has a good chance against Fed. Very little pressure on Stan. I can see him taking the first set as he did in Wimbledon a couple of years ago. In fact, he was going to beat Fed but something happened to him in that match. He got sick all of a sudden after winning the first set then lost the second 7-6 and he was history after that. Fed has played mostly night matches (so he might be fresher) but he did not look good in his one day match against Kole (I think only 5 points separated them, despite Fed winning 3-0). Fed looked a bit lethargic in that match, under the sun. Stan will be used to the conditions. If Stan gets to the final he has a good shot against Djoker for sure (if Djoker gets there). I think you should hedge some, just so you don't feel bad about it if Stan loses. I bet 1 grand on Fed to win his quarter at -220 (and this was after he won his first two matches:) : easiest bet of my life, so I'm happy. But I think things are going to get tougher for him. Just a gut feeling. Best of luck.