4. Kei Nishikori
Nishikori comes to the Open with an injury question again. Last year,
there was no telling what shape he was in with the cyst removal from his
foot. This year, there is at least some form to go on prior to
Nishikori succumbing to fatigue and a hip issue after losing to Andy
Murray in Montreal. Nishikori erred on the side of precaution by
skipping Cincinnati, so the two full weeks off should have helped. The
rigors of five set tennis though will test him surely in this quarter.
He will open against Benoit Paire. He is 2-0 against the Frenchman,
including a win at a Grand Slam. He beat him in four sets in 2013 at the
French Open. That was their last meeting. Paire is as unpredictable as
ever, but hard courts don’t seem to suit him that well. He is 39-49 in
main draws on the surface in his career. Expect him to stick with
Nishikori maybe for four or even five sets as the fourth seed works his
way into the match. In the end. Nishikori is more consistent with a
better variety and should win unless the injury is still nagging him.
Round two should provide an easier time with Radek Stepanek or Marsel
Ilhan. That should move Nishikori to the third round where Tommy
Robredo is seeded to meet him as the 26th seed. You may see Alexandr
Dolgopolov there instead. He has to get past Sam Groth to open, but has
that hot and cold faucet that could find him taking on Nishikori in the
third. Dog has only made the fourth round once before and Nishikori owns
a 3-0 mark against him with all the wins coming on hard courts.
Survival through three rounds could yield a marquee match-up against
either of two Frenchman; 19th seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or 16th seed Gael
Monfils. That looks a very probable shot with both having decent R1 and
R2 draws before a potential All-French showdown in the third. Tsonga is
5-2 against Monfils, but Gael won their most recent meeting in Miami
this spring. Either one poses a real threat with Tsonga having beaten
Nishikori at Roland Garros this year in five sets. Monfils lost their
only match-up last year on grass in three sets.
If Nishikori gets past that landmine, the “random” draw could pit him
in a rematch against last year’s Champion Marin Cilic in the
quarterfinals. Cilic is seeded 9th as the top seed in the other half of
this quarter that also has #7 David Ferrer, #17 Grigor Dimitrov and #27
Jeremy Chardy. A return with Cilic might be easier than a match against
Tsonga or Monfils. Nishikori beat Cilic earlier in the summer in D.C.,
wearing him down in three sets.
Projection: Fourth Round
There’s too much in this quarter for me to see Nishikori getting through
with the question marks again surrounding his fitness. He could get to
the quarters, but I think the fourth round against one of the Frenchman
may do him in.
5. Stan Wawrinka
It’s time for Wawrinka to drop the “woe is me” act from the Kyrgios’
incident. That was a long time ago in a Galaxy north of the border. It
seemed a bit of a convenient excuse for any losses this summer, but
that’s not going to wash at the U.S. Open. It will still be the talk of
the first round because the media is the media after all. For the
Stanimal though, this should be his chance to exercise some demons on
the court. He has shown that he will effort hard in Slams. That is what I
expect. The first two rounds should be innocuous enough with Albert
Vinolas-Ramos to start with and then either Hyeon Chung or James
Duckworth. The third round is seeded to see Wawrinka against Jack Sock.
It could be Gilles Muller who is also in that part of the draw. Both
scenarios should see the consistency from the ground equaling a win for
the Swiss.
To the fourth round, Stan should see another good match-up that goes
in his favor. The seeds in that part of the quarter include #11 Gilles
Simon and #22 Viktor Troicki. Simon could test Stan’s resolve, having
beaten him twice in six meetings. Stan owns both Grand Slam wins, the
French Open in 2015 and 2012. Ernests Gulbis could figure into this
picture too depending on his mood and effort. In all cases, Stan’s
recent Slam pedigree looks the best to survive and advance. I touched on
a potential quarterfinal match-up against Andy Murray above. Wawrinka
owns two wins over Murray at the U.S. Open and that will definitely have
a big match feel to it. Wawrinka won those two clashes before he became
a Grand Slam Champion, so I think his belief is higher this time than
it was before.
Projection: Finals
I probably come across as crass and uncaring for thinking this, but I
really believe Wawrinka has been playing possum with everyone for the
last month. The pressure is certainly not on him to produce because the
public perception is that he’s been harmed and is a fragile little
flower. Bullpucky. This might be one of the best dupe jobs in history if
Wawrinka makes another run at a title “in spite of, etc, etc.” fill in
your headline. He may not get past Murray in the QFs, but something
tells me he’s going to do work this next two weeks.
6. Tomas Berdych
The Czech gets glossed over some in the talk of guys who can step in and
snatch a Grand Slam from just outside the top tier of Djokovic, Federer
and Murray. That may have some to do with Berdych’s propensity for
seemingly being a bridesmaid and never a bride. He gets near the prize,
but never wins it. This year, he has been consistent. He made the semis
in Australia and then the fourth round both at Roland Garros and
Wimbledon. Berdych has been good at the USO the last three years, making
the semis, fourth round and quarterfinals most recently in 2014. Round
one should be simple against inexperienced American Bjorn Fratangelo.
The second round might see a stiffer test in the form of Denis Kudla or
qualifier Jurgen Melzer. Kudla has cooled considerably since his
semifinal showing in Atlanta and Melzer is a step slower at age 34. Both
those factors should help Berdych advance past one of them. Kudla could
potentially push Berdych a bit if he finds his best form, but that form
has been missing for well over a month.
The third round would see Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Janko Tipsarevic,
Sam Querrey or Nicolas Mahut waiting. Querrey is the only name there who
might stick with Berdych for a bit. Still, five out of six career
match-ups say Berdych is better. The fourth round is seeded to see #12
Richard Gasquet waiting, but he has a tough road to get there with
Kokkinakis in R1 and #24 Bernard Tomic possibly in R3. If it is Gasquet,
Berdych has had his number lately with three straight wins over the
Frenchman to even their career meetings at 6-6.
Projection: Quarterfinals
Berdych should be in the hunt for a quarterfinal spot that may land him
against Roger Federer. That would likely be the end of the run in
another good, but not great Grand Slam for the Czech.
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