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Indianapolis at Chicago (02/04/2007)

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Posted: #176
i havent made my colts ml bet yet and this one guru that bets 50K/game locally has tapped the bears.
the casino locally is -7-120.
i dont like the fact that this game should be a -3 and due to sexy public superbowl appeal its 6.5-7, so the money line appeals since it is set way below a typical 7 pt game, due to public action and the ml here is a closer reflection of the power ratings on a neutral field than the -7 spread. AND NEVER FORGET THE WIFES LOVE OF MR TV AD QB.
my logical side tells me that the line value lies with Chi. i feel strongly about this.
my conspiracy theory side tells me the NFL wants it to be Mannings year based on the officiating in the NE/IND game that ive rewatched twice(man was i lucky on what was the largest bet of my life)
the hardest part about both sides of this bet for me is that something feels wrong both ways.
i can see a hard fought low scoring low error game which would point to indy ML and under, i can see Chi special teams and D scoring or creating opportunities which could easily lead to a typical bears and over, and i can see a Grossman pressured doing a Munson(Kingpin) and getting pulled with indy/ov first half and a lower scoring second half with lots of running by ind.
i can see me getting confused and doing a lot of useless prop bets because i cant crap or get off the pot,
hey whats the line on the its the mirrors O/U.
 
 
 
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Posted: #177
irish eyes, you didnt really just admit that you bet the coin toss did you?, and no its not a trend if you lost it 4 times in a row, just a message from God not to bet it. but i think youre making a joke or made the bet as a joke,  bruddah.
i like the over if youre on the bears too
 
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Posted: #178
Man, the formatting on this thread is all kind of messed up.   Covers team, we luv ya, but methinks you are due for a version upgrade in the offseason.
 
ColonelJim, I would leave me out of the picking list -- as stated earlier I won't be betting on the game (really) and although I think the Colts will prolly win, the past few days I've been wondering if maybe da Bears are not ripe for an upset.   And I see our Nits got blown out by Iowa, big surprise there, huh? 
 
3rd&L, I see you are enjoying these weeks, as well you should.  These pre-SB weeks don't come around all that often, and when they do you just soak em up for all their worth. 
 
I said earlier I'm starting to think the Bears actually have a chance.  Here's why:
 
- Bears play really well outdoors... not an incredible advantage, but Colts have no stadium advantage this time around.
- Bears have a special teams edge, especially on kick returns, and especially since Colts return coverage has been weak.  Also Gould is a great kicker, not a huge advantage for Adam V.
- Grossman does blow -- really hard -- but he has weathered the storm of criticism all year.  He does not have to be pretty or elegant for the Bears to win, or at least cover.  His WRs do find ways to make plays.  And he played his college ball in the state of FL -- so there is some comfort there.
- Colts's Harper has a bum ankle, forcing a reshuffling in the secondary.  This is a more significant injury than Peyton's thumb.
- Possibility remains that the Colts won their big game last week.  3rd&L, you even expressed this right after the Pats game.  You said something like "honestly even if they don't win the SB I don't care, as long as they slayed the dragon that is the Pats" or something to that effect.  I am sure with a few days to rest you are not thinking the same way, but this dynamic does exist.  The Colts have succeeded where they have not gone before.   Can they possibly gather as much emotion as they did in the 2nd half v. the Pats?  Doubtful.
- That Pats-Colts game was rough.  REAL rough.  I could not keep up with all the injuries, major and minor, on both sides.  I have to think there is some fallout from that, much like the Pats got worn down at SD.  The extra week should allow them to recover enough, but I just wonder.
- This setup sorta reminds me of Pats-Rams in Jan 2002.  One high-octane dome team offense, going against an underdog with a good defense and an unproven QB. 
- Bears don't have to sack PM a lot -- they just need to pressure him.  It ain't da meat, it's da motion.  They can do that. 
 
Not predicting a Bears win outright, and again I'm not betting on this.  (Really!)    But I will be watching with great interest, and won't blame anyone from taking CHI +7.  
 
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by drJ:

irish eyes, you didnt really just admit that you bet the coin toss did you?, and no its not a trend if you lost it 4 times in a row, just a message from God not to bet it. but i think youre making a joke or made the bet as a joke,  bruddah.
i like the over if youre on the bears too
I throw $50 on the coin flip every year. It's the Super Bowl!! And tails - never fails.
Me & a buddy of mine won on the over of the length of time it would take Kathie Lee Gifford to sing the national anthem. We also won every prop bet & game bet we made that day, and hit the 4th qtr in the block pool. Stayed out drinking 'till Tuesday!  Good times.
 
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Posted: #180
Quote Originally Posted by drJ:

irish eyes, you didnt really just admit that you bet the coin toss did you?, and no its not a trend if you lost it 4 times in a row, just a message from God not to bet it. but i think youre making a joke or made the bet as a joke,  bruddah.
i like the over if youre on the bears too
 
 
Me and a bunch of buddies always watch the game together and everyone always puts $10 on the toss........just for the fun of the hoots and hollers........half the room jumps and half the room bitches!!!  I have been on the bitching side the last 4 years..........and the trend comment........that was the joke.......since I do incorporate some trend information in my real wagers sometimes........lol lol   
 
So.........the question is.......heads or tails my brutha??? 
 
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Posted: #181
Prop bets rule during Super Bowl parties!!!!!!! 
 
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Posted: #182
Gotta ask the Chicago backers here, are you in love with the team or the 7 points?
Now remember before you read that I had the Bears last week, so don't bash.
 
Watched both of last weeks games again & they were eerily similar. Colts & NO were both down big in the first half. Both scored on the final drive of the first half. Both scored the first TD of the second half. Colts went ape-shit & beat one of the best teams in the NFL over the last 5 years, and the Saints shit the bed. The Bears game was 18-14 at the end of the 3rd qtr and the Saints fumbled any chance they had away. With the exception of turnovers (yes they are important) and a few short fields that game was very even.
The NO offense didn't fire, passes were off target & I thought NO's play calling was horrible. They totally abandoned the run. I will give some credit to the Bears D, but NO was on a sustained drive that could have given them the lead, they threw 3 straight incomplete passes & then missed the 47 yd field goal. Horrible play calling. One decent Bears drive, two short field TD's and there's the 25 point win. And the safety for grounding by Brees, what a brain fart. Awful. Mental mistake.
 
I had both the Colts & Bears last week & quite frankly I don't know which one I was luckier with - the big Colts comeback or the Saints inability to do so.
 
One last observation - the Bears were 9.5 favorites over Seattle, public on Bears
Bears were 3 point favorites over Saints, public on Saints
Now they are GETTING 7, public on Bears again ????? 
 
The defense & running game are going to have to be stellar for the Bears to get the money here.
Grossman is not going to beat the Colts secondary without a lot of help from both of the above.
If the Colts get an early lead they will easily cover this number. I saw nothing to discourage the Colts from putting 8 in the box and forcing Grossman to be the man. Playoff experience was a big factor with the Bears last two opponents, & I think it will be a big factor here.
 
 
 
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Posted: #183
Thanks holywood and Tauntstreet...here's the update..
 
Bears/Under - 3 (DaDonk, hollywood, Tauntstreet)
Bears/Over - 2 (Buckner, JWishbone)
Colts/Under - 3 (stoplyin', BreakaBookie, FlyHi)
Colts/Over - 4 (playmaker, phancard, Hunted466, 3rd&Long)
 
Here's a quote from a fine man, Dr. J:
the hardest part about both sides of this bet for me is that something feels wrong both ways . i can see a hard fought low scoring low error game which would point to indy ML and under, i can see Chi special teams and D scoring or creating opportunities which could easily lead to a typical bears and over, and i can see a Grossman pressured doing a Munson(Kingpin) and getting pulled with indy/ov first half and a lower scoring second half with lots of running by ind.
 
You are so right, Dr. J...something DOES feel wrong here as I crunch both sides..that's why I struggle with getting a solid handle on this one. Great offense (w/ a likely Hall-of-fame QB who has weapons with a D that can be horrendous) or a tough-as-nails smash-mouth team that can blow up when the QB can't make a play and has a few key injuries on D...this is a tough SB to call from my perspective...you are SO KIND to front my parlay action and I will give you a call and we can talk things out...you are truly one of a kind, my friend...and I got the over -120 in the "It's The Mirrors" ad (O/U 212) - lol!! I know all the ads will be fresh a week from Sunday...but most will be as annoying as "This Is Our Country"...
 
Good news, hollywood! "Little Hermie" came through for me in the Raid 500 Invitationals! He toasted the favorite "Beetle Juice". Did you hit your tennis match? How's the lacross action treatin' ya? Next up for me in the Cockroach races is the "D-Con Relays"..."Little Hermie" pulled a groin and is sitting this one out so I got my money on "Termite Terry"..he's one speedy lil' insect!! We may degenerate and dysfunctional gambling junkies, hollywood...but at least we're committed to it!
 
 
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Posted: #184
DANSTYK     THE LIONS ARE KILLING ME. 
THEIR BASKETBALL PROGRAM IS DISAPPOINTING.JUST CAN'T UNDERSTAND HOW THEY CAN'T RECRUIT SOME BETTER PLAYERS.
 
I WANT TO BET THE BEARS +7 BUT THAT SECONDARY SCARES ME, THEY PLAY TOO SOFT.
NEW ORLEANS WIDEOUTS WERE OPEN MOST OF THE GAME. STILL HOLDING OFF ON MAKING A PICK .
ROBBIE GOULD - PSU KICKER
THAT ALONE IS MAKING ME LEAN BEARS.
 
 
 
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Posted: #185
Your last post was awesome 3rdandLong....your analysis on the NO/Chicago game is dead-on...I liked what you had to say and how you said it...
 
Just curious why you feel Seattle wasn't play-off tested?..that was their seventh play-off game in four seasons (1 in 2003, 1 in 2004, 3 in 2005 and the 2006 Dallas game)... one of the reasons I took the nine points against Chicago is because I felt they were play-off tested and actually thought they might win s/up...
 
Not at all arguing with your call...I think the "smart" money may be on Indy and the over and we all know you are a great handicapper...I will bet on what the thread votes for in the "contest" I started and can certainly understand why you like the Colts/Over...good luck
 
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Posted: #186
KEEPING UP WITH THE PRIMETIME PLAYERS
1.  JOHNNYWISHBONE -  BEARS  OVER
2.  3RD&LONG              -  COLTS   OVER
3.  PHANCARD             -   COLTS   OVER
4.  BIG DADDY             -   BEARS
5.  IRISHEYES             -    BEARS  OVER
6.  BIGEIII                     -   INDY 14 PT TEASE
7.  BREAKABOOKIE     -   COLTS   UNDER
8.  DRJ                         -   COLTS
9.  DANSTYK               -    COLTS LEANING
10. TORONTO               -   COLTS
11. LEFTY1209             -    COLTS
12 THE COLONEL         -    HEADS
 
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Posted: #187
That was my point Scorpio, the playoff tested Seahawks covered and almost won & the Saints didn't. That was in my analysis for both those contests. Now the Bears get a very playoff teasted Colts team. The last three results for the Colts will be huge here, not just the wins & covers but the way they got them. The Colts won every way you can, defense, beating a great defense, offensive comeback, whatever they have to do to win, they get it done.
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by 3rd :

BigDaddy, welcome back. St Louis Rams won the SB, and they are a dome team. Just an FYI
 
Thanks for that info buddy  I forgot about the Hams
 
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Posted: #189
bears cover
 
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Posted: #190
I like what your dong there Coloneljim.

I'm still waiting on a certain Bristol based website to post their main preview, but this one is all about concact to me. ChiTown must stay w/in 1 full play to 10 points tops to maintain their Running-attack to try to keep the ball outta the misQ prone hands of Grossman. Hand the game over to Grossman & this could get outta hand. Whereas P.Man would still have some chance to rally his troops if da Bears jump up early on.

I added Indy+7.5 on a Prop Line & I'm prolly gonna add the Indy+14.5 line. IF I have that wrong, I can easily add da Bears inGame. The line is ChiTown+7 or +6.5 most places right now. If Indy can jus' score first I will get da Bears +10 or +14 at nearly even money early on inGame.


bigeiii
 
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Posted: #191
Who has the best QB Rating in the Playoffs?? Rex or Peyton???
 
 
 
 
 
GROSSMAN 75.4
Manning    66.8
 
Get OVER IT! Manning can't win this game...it will take the WHOLE TEAM!!!!
 
 
And half the team sucks!!
 
 
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Posted: #192
10-4  3rd&Long...I understand what you mean now
 
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Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by drJ:

i havent made my colts ml bet yet and this one guru that bets 50K/game locally has tapped the bears.
the casino locally is -7-120.
i dont like the fact that this game should be a -3 and due to sexy public superbowl appeal its 6.5-7, so the money line appeals since it is set way below a typical 7 pt game, due to public action and the ml here is a closer reflection of the power ratings on a neutral field than the -7 spread. AND NEVER FORGET THE WIFES LOVE OF MR TV AD QB.
my logical side tells me that the line value lies with Chi. i feel strongly about this.
my conspiracy theory side tells me the NFL wants it to be Mannings year based on the officiating in the NE/IND game that ive rewatched twice(man was i lucky on what was the largest bet of my life)
the hardest part about both sides of this bet for me is that something feels wrong both ways.
i can see a hard fought low scoring low error game which would point to indy ML and under, i can see Chi special teams and D scoring or creating opportunities which could easily lead to a typical bears and over, and i can see a Grossman pressured doing a Munson(Kingpin) and getting pulled with indy/ov first half and a lower scoring second half with lots of running by ind.
i can see me getting confused and doing a lot of useless prop bets because i cant crap or get off the pot,
hey whats the line on the its the mirrors O/U.
 
DrJ - you are absolutely correct about this line being off. You have to remember that the oddsmakers had the AFC -6.5  before these two teams were locked in and they aren't going to move too far off of that. I could easily see a Colts win - Bears cover scenario, it makes sense. I have two reasons that I'm playing the Colts from strictly a betting angle (keep in mind I'm going to get a nice payday on my Colts future with just a Colts win)
1 - Who do you think is going to win the game? My answer is of course the Colts.
2-  Now that I think the Colts are the winner, how does it play out against the number? I see the Colts playing with a lead here, putting 8 in the box to stop the run and making Grossman beat them. I have confidence that the Colts corners can cover the Bear receivers 1 on 1 and take that away, they've been in single coverage a lot all year. I also see lots of pressure on Rex here, and his pocket presence doesn't exactly scare me - expect some turnovers. The guy is basically a rookie who throws a nice deep ball. He needs to have the game of his life to keep his team close IF the Colts can stop the run, & I'm betting they can.
 
My point is, since I think the Colts will win, why bet Chicago & hope they stay within 7? I don't like to play a dog unless I think they have a strong chance at the outright, and I don't think that's the case here.
 
 
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Posted: #194
Anybody have official word on Manning's thumb? I read in the paper that Harrison says he is throwing the ball just fine, but what do Peyton and the Colts say about it? 
 
As of right now guys, im leaning on Da Bears! The Bears D was just sick last week. I can see Manning taking some hard licks too. Defense wins championships and there is no matchup between these two defenses. I cant see the Bears D laying an egg, its just that pesky Rex Grossman, he can make your Bears pick go down faster than Jenna Jameson. Its a tough nut to swallow (no pun intended) to bet on Rex Grossman over Peyton Manning, i do admit that, but i think the Bears D will prevail like they have all year.
 
Hey Colonel, put me down for Bears (tentativly), and Ill get back to you on the total.
 
To all the regulars, sorry ive been keeping such a low profile latley. I finally got back on track last weekend after the worst losing streak in my life. Even though my analysis is far from expert, i still enjoy talking and reading about the games with you guys. Im sure you were all distraught about my absence...lol (thats sarcasim by the way) Anyway, lets finish the Footbal season with a bang fellas!
 
PS: Anyone do College Hoops? Not really my game but im looking to dabble a little until baseball season to keep things interesting. Any help would be appreciated.  
 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

DANSTYK     THE LIONS ARE KILLING ME. 
THEIR BASKETBALL PROGRAM IS DISAPPOINTING.JUST CAN'T UNDERSTAND HOW THEY CAN'T RECRUIT SOME BETTER PLAYERS.
 
I WANT TO BET THE BEARS +7 BUT THAT SECONDARY SCARES ME, THEY PLAY TOO SOFT.
NEW ORLEANS WIDEOUTS WERE OPEN MOST OF THE GAME. STILL HOLDING OFF ON MAKING A PICK .
ROBBIE GOULD - PSU KICKER
THAT ALONE IS MAKING ME LEAN BEARS.
 
 
Yeah CJ, and it is not like the Lions don't try to turn it around.  I remember back when I was in school there, in the early 80s, I interviewed then new coach Dick Harter, and he went on about how he would turn it around.  Closed practices and such.  Almost 25 yrs ago!   And what is with the S-WB Red Barons switching affiliation to the YANKEES!?!  Breaks my heart. 
 
Back to the SB game... 3rd&L got me thinking maybe I will make a wager on this game.  On the coin flip!    That and some good cheap prop bets.  I do agree that Colts are capable of putting it away early... but Chi is not.  They coulda/shoulda put it away early v. the Saints and could not.
 
I see the 2nd tier RBs as having a big effect in this game.  D. Rhodes really impressed me last week, and also C. Benson for the Bears seemed to come of age.  I think we can expect to see both of them get at least 10-12 carries apiece, and one of them could be an unexpected STAH.
 
And I feel this could be a low scoring affair, closer to the 15-7 Colts win over Balt than the shootout v. NE. 
 
 
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Posted: #196
my vote.....colts -7 and under
 
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Posted: #197
Bigdaddy, nice to see another legitimate brudda out there - if I talked about spam musubi to anybody else on the forum, i'd get the "wtf?" back at me.  My mother raised on the Hamakua coast of the Big Island, now I live in Jersey, and the Rams (Hams - lol, nice one) are my team.  Its all good, but I can't get good saimin out here (bummer)!
 
I'm still on the Colts / under train, also more often than not two weeks of hype = big margin of victory.  Not that the Bears are unable to win big (see: New Orleans), but too many pointers toward the Colts, and too many similarities to that Denver / Atlanta, Elway vs. Chandler, Favorite / Under finish.
 
On that note, anybody else think its crazy that on the first overall TD props, Dominic Rhodes is a long shot to be the winning play, but not so on the Colt first TD props?  Wasn't that same Denver/Atlanta game where McCaffrey ran a slant to the one-yard line, then Elway handed off to the fullback Mike Anderson (read: 30-1 odds, and 3 people in the country had him) who walked in ahead of Terrell Davis, who at 3-1 made a lot of money for the house when he didn't score the first TD?
 
3rd, great post right after mine, and we both picked the  by coincidence.
 
One more thought on the "easy money" plays - it seems anyone with $100 lying around can win easy money by playing a 6point teaser on Bears + 13 and over 42x, so I gotta believe at least one of those two will miss, so buyer beware!
 
FlyHi (FlyNJ right now)
 
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Posted: #198
SCORP,
I think i am going to start capping tennis. I hit Serena Williams again last night. I got her at +190. I can't keep giving out these winners for free!!!! I think I am going to go with the South today in the Senior Bowl. Anyways, which direction are you going to go in the Super Bowl I don't believe I've seen your pick. I am liking the Bears more and more everyday. I will probabbly put some cash on them on the moneyline.
 
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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

KEEPING UP WITH THE PRIMETIME PLAYERS
1.  JOHNNYWISHBONE -  BEARS  OVER
2.  3RD&LONG              -  COLTS   OVER
3.  PHANCARD             -   COLTS   OVER
4.  BIG DADDY             -   BEARS
5.  IRISHEYES             -    BEARS  OVER
6.  BIGEIII                     -   INDY 14 PT TEASE
7.  BREAKABOOKIE     -   COLTS   UNDER
8.  DRJ                         -   COLTS
9.  DANSTYK               -    COLTS LEANING
10. TORONTO               -   COLTS
11. LEFTY1209             -    COLTS
12 THE COLONEL         -    HEADS
13. UZ              -    BEARS
 
 
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Posted: #200
tennis.............. 5-1 on GONZALAS to beat the best tennis player of all time (arguably)..........
 
i wanna take the Underdog so bad......
 
he ran through blake, nadal, and they are both good.............
 
but its federer..... how can you bet against him.........
 
 
just like how can you bet against peyton manning in his first superbowl appearance..........
 
COLTS in the UNDER....
 
lay the 7 if you dare........ or be as crazy as I and take the moneyline....
 
its superbowl baby.... no guts no glory
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