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MRBator You might want to read this

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Posted: #301
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:

URDaddy,
 
Past results provided four pointspread winners.
 
Those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it.
 
 
 
 Inside the NFL........ History repeats itself over and over again.Year after year after year.Just make sure to keep records so that you will know when it repeats itself for the good, the bad, and the ugly. When you begin to highlight the good during your record keeping.Good things happen$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
Good Night
 
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Posted: #302
good luck tom, but I just can't fade Mr. Bator.  Win or lose Mr. Bator, thank you for a great football season, and I would love for you to hit a big 100k tomorrow.  Let's go Colts.  


 
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Posted: #303
Quote Originally Posted by fseitun:



You see, a trend - whether it is short-term or long-term - becomes visible only AFTER it produces some winner.

I don't think you wagered any money when this nice little trend you are pointing out was still set at 0-0.  Or I don't think you still wagered any money on something with a 1-0 or 2-0 record.

Hence, it's always very complicated to determine when a trend becomes a meaningful trend and when a trend dies out.

This is why I don't look much into trends but I rather focus on the football aspects of the game.

Just a different way to cap games.  Your style is trend-driven, mine is more technical-driven.
 
No I did not use the trend when it was 1-0 or 2-0 or even 3-0.
 
I bet Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl using this trend last year, then followed
up with the four winners this year.
 
I look for three straight winners( or a 4-1 start) before calling something a trend and then use
the the trend IF other factors and trends jive up.
 
You can basically find a trend to fit every side (i.e. I COULD say the Colts
are 8-0 at home or 24-2 at home) so you can just blindly hang your hat on one trend.
 
New England has MULTPLE, powerful trends, like the one's I have mention.
 
There is even more but people are probably getting bored with this thread.
 
I will add one more, there are three handicappers I keep track of who
make picks on the internet. Each week they pick who they think is
going to win outright but I track their picks against the spread.
 
They are a combined 1-23 ATS (they actually have lost twenty three
straight, I can't make this stuff up!) and every.....single.....one....of....
them are on the Colts.
 
Like Goayl said "cap the cappers".
 
I whole heartedly agree.
 
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Posted: #304
Quote Originally Posted by khanhdom:

good luck tom, but I just can't fade Mr. Bator.  Win or lose Mr. Bator, thank you for a great football season, and I would love for you to hit a big 100k tomorrow.  Let's go Colts.  


 
I hear you Khan,
 
If I would you I would not fade Mr. Bator either after seeing his record.
 
I just happen to disagree with him on this play, especially on'how he feels the Pats have NO
chance.
 
He may be right, but I say he isn't.
 
It is going to cost me $9730 to find out.    
 
 
 
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Posted: #305
WHO DID Mr B PICK IN THE
 
SAINTS/BEARS GAME???????
 
Thanks
 
 
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Posted: #306
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:





TomCurtis,

The talent gap between your high school teams and those that you played against must have been extreme.  Those "new kids on the block" probably had little or no chance to beat you no matter how bad they wanted to.  Luckily, such a massive difference in talent doesn't exist in NFL games not involving the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions.  And Peyton Manning is no new kid on the block.

Maybe I am underestimating Tom Brady's will to win, but here's the thing.  I believe the guy is maniacal about winning, and puts that goal above all else.  But even as driven as he is, I just can't magine that any athlete can maintain the same drive and the same hunger after having achieved so much success.  There may not be much of a dropoff in desire in Brady's case, because he is the consumate team player, but there has to be some. 

I firmly believe that Peyton Manning's desire to finally get one over on Tom Brady in an AFC title game outweighs Brady's desire to stick it to Manning for a third time.
 
MrBator, I've enjoyed your posts this season, and have benefitted from them.  You have my respect.  However, you are on the wrong team here.  The Pats will do it again.  A few reasons why:
 
- Your above statement is fueled by belief and nothing else.  Just because Manning has not beaten Brady in no way gives him an edge.  In fact, there is more pressure on him.  Brady was asked which is his favorite super bowl ring.  His answer?  "The NEXT one."  Think about this.... you are a successful bettor.  Very successful.  Does that mean you rest on your next pick and just flip a coin, knowing you will be ok with whatever result happens?  F*ck no.   You are a competitor, and driven to keep doing it NOW AND AGAIN.  Same thing applies here.
 
- Lots of kudos and excitement about the Colts resurgent defense the last two weeks, but at the same time Manning has struggled and the Colts O has been mediocre if not outright weak.  The sentiment is that Manning and the O will rebound to their old ways, but the D won't.  15 pts on 5 FGs...  5 INTs and 1 TD... that is optimism at its finest... a double standard. Nothing wrong with optimism, but that's not a good betting frame of mind. 
 
- You mentioned earlier how the public was mistaken in giving the Pats props based on the past... that this is not the same team.  No, it is not.  In fact it is better in some ways.  Otherwise, please explain to me how and why THIS Patriots team set a franchise record for fewest points allowed.  Their defensive line of Seymour, Warren (the real star this year, DNP last time these teams met) and Wilfork, in a 3-4 that Manning struggles with, is their best D-line ever.  (You can throw in Jarvis Green as well when a 4th is needed.) 
 
- You made a point about how there were only 8 or so players still on the Pats from the 2001 team.  Actually only 6 remain.  But remember the team won two super bowls since that time.  Also, there are only something like 12 players (forget exact #) remaining from the Colts team that lost to the Pats in the 2005 AFC champ game.  That goes both ways.
 
What does NOT go both ways is the coaching and preparation for each team, and the character within the team that continually finds ways to win against all odds.  Those things don't show up on the stat sheet.  Actually, no, they do -- in the final score.
 
All the best to you and thanks for your contribution here.  But I suggest that you be prepared for an in-game strategy in case adjustments are necessary.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #307
DanS,
 
Nice!
 
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Posted: #308
interesting
 
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Posted: #309
tom curtis, my assumption is that you thought the same of michael jordan (that he would never get past the pistons) but jordan got by them and went on to win 6 titles.  peyton gets by new england and wins it all this year.
 
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Posted: #310
agreed  brewers'
 
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Posted: #311
Brewers,
 
Continuing your thread of logic you would have started betting against
Michael Jordan after his first championship and lost five times straught.
 
I said it severla times in this thread, here it is again:
 
You do not play AGAINST  a trend until it loses, you play WITH a trend until it loses.
 
Always remember when you assume you make an ass of u and me    
 
 
 
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Posted: #312
if your going to say that

Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:


 
 
You do not play AGAINST  a trend until it loses, you play WITH a trend until it loses.

 


then i'll say third time is the charm


 
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Posted: #313
Slight correction to my post above -- Pats have 7 players remaining from their 2001 supabow team.  I forgot special teamer Larry Izzo.  The others are Brady, Bruschi, Vrabel, Seymour, Faulk, and Light.
 
Also, there's been a lot of talk about Brady-Mannin = Montana-Marino.  Well, there's another example like this that goes even further.  It's Bill Russell v. Wilt Chamberlain.  Many of you were in diapers or not born yet when these two awesome centers went at it.  Wilt had all the stats (100 pts in a game, 50.4 ppg avg  one year, 50 or more points in a regular season game 118 times, most chicks boned in a lifetime) but Russell had all the rings. 
 
Wilt was Rookie of the Year his first year.  Pasted from the wikipedia:
 
With Chamberlain in the pivot, Warriors improved from a last place division finish in the 1958-59 season to the second best record in the NBA. The Warriors, however, would lose to the Boston Celtics in the Conference Finals that year, despite Chamberlain outscoring his opposing center Bill Russell by 81 points. This would become a repeated occurrence in Chamberlain's career.
 
It goes further.  Read this and tell me there is no comparison to Bill Polian whining about the way the refs call the game, or to the strategy the Pats used to beat the Colts in the 2005 AFC champ game.

The rookie Chamberlain then shocked the Warriors' fans by saying he was thinking of retiring. He was tired being subject of double- and triple teams, and teams hacking him down with hard fouls. Chamberlain feared to lose his cool one day, a thing which he did not want to happen. Celtics forward Tom Heinsohn said his team ruthlessly exploited his only weakness, free throw shooting, with an early version of the Hack-a-Shaq (a tactic in which a poor free throw shooter is intentionally fouled, in the hope that he misses free throws and the team gets an easy ball possession without giving up many points). "Half the fouls against him were hard fouls", Heinsohn continued, "he [Chamberlain] took the most brutal pounding of any player ever". An additional point was that Chamberlain refrained from retaliating, and preferred to play through the many fouls. [1]

This tactic proved highly effective against Chamberlain. Since the Celtics were in the same Eastern Division as the Warriors, Chamberlain and his teammates could not even reach the NBA Finals without finding a way to beat them. The Boston Celtics were in the midst of their legendary run of winning 11 NBA championships in 13 seasons.

Wilt did get a ring, in fact 2, in '67 and '72.  So there is hope that Manning can get one this year.  But if I were a betting man -- and I am -- I go the other way. 
 
 
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Posted: #314
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:

Brewers,
 
Continuing your thread of logic you would have started betting against
Michael Jordan after his first championship and lost five times straught.
 
I said it severla times in this thread, here it is again:
 
You do not play AGAINST  a trend until it loses, you play WITH a trend until it loses.
 
Always remember when you assume you make an ass of u and me    
 
 
 
This makes a lot of sense TCNY, yet I think it is now that this trend loses, and yes I assume it will.    I think the time is now for Peyton and the Colts to get the "Evil New England Playoff Stink Monkey" off their backs once and for all.
 
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Posted: #315
Tom, Why are you spending too much time to convince with one of the best capper in nfl? If you think you are on the right side, just bet it and let it go. For me, 4 favorites lost ats last week, i have to bet on favor again this week. good luck.
 
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Posted: #316
Quote Originally Posted by Hyvong:

Tom, Why are you spending too much time to convince with one of the best capper in nfl? If you think you are on the right side, just bet it and let it go. For me, 4 favorites lost ats last week, i have to bet on favor again this week. good luck.
 
 
Uhhhh...right...got it
 
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Posted: #317
 
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Posted: #318
 I think looking up trends is usful as a tool but no to base the out come of a sporting event. Trend
handicapping would mean we wouldn't bet on a horse the first time on turf or a sprint horse
entered in its first route. Going against number crunching sometimes provides us with nice
profits. I guess I'm a contrary gambler,although I respect opinions and reasons why a person
comes to a point of picking a side.   Thank you............
 
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Posted: #319
'Bator...Have you been able to get all the action down on Indy -, Indy ML, and Indy for he SB you were looking tfor?
 
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Posted: #320
you obviously failed to comprehend what i was trying to say. what was meant in my post is that there is no hurdle that is too high to jump over.  michael did it and so have many others.  everyone has that team they have to get by.  i was trying to pass this on to you but you obviously have made up your mind to the extent that you are unable to comprehend an arguement coming from the other side.  i wish you the best on your trend bet but no trend can overcome the situation that indy finds themselves in for todays game, the time is now for manning and i am confident in betting on him. 
 
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Posted: #321
Quote Originally Posted by afrolovv:

'Bator...Have you been able to get all the action down on Indy -, Indy ML, and Indy for he SB you were looking tfor?





afrolow,

The answer is no, but this is what I do have:


Indianapolis +155 to win the Super Bowl
$37,000 to win $57,350  (The Greek mostly, and 5 Dimes)

Indianapolis +160 to win the Super Bowl
$17,450 to win $27,920  (Hollywood, BetJamaica, two Vegas books)

Indianapolis+150 to win the Super Bowl
$15,440 to win $23,160  (Bodog, VIP, BetPop, Mansion)

Indianapolis +145 to win the Super Bowl
$2,000 to win $2,900  (5 Dimes)

Indianapolis +180 to win the Super Bowl
$1,000 to win $1,800  (one small, snoozin' Vegas book)

Toronto/Philadelphia under 194.5 parlayed to Indianapolis -3 -115 (NBA game from MLK Day)
$1,316 to win $3,381  (Hollywood)

Indianapolis and Chicago to meet in the Super Bowl +325
$900 to win $2,925  (Bodog)


At this time, I would like to blame my newly married sister for scheduling her wedding in freakin' January, thus pulling me out of Las Vegas five days before Championship Sunday, which prevented me from getting down all my action.  Yes, I am a selfish brother.  By the way, if the Colts (somehow) lose, she's the best.
 
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Posted: #322
what about your -3 how much do you have on that?
 
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Posted: #323
only 70k on the colts to win the sb? i thought you liked them a lot, mr. b. :)
 
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Posted: #324
Mrbator - if I have learned anything from reading your posts this year, it is to shop for good lines...I am starting to see how big that is...I have the colts at +130 to win the SB @ Betcris....that looks pretty paltry next to your +160 and +150....thanks for the insight this year (and the picks!). BOL to you today..
 
 
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Posted: #325
greenmon$ter,

Charles Barkley and Karl Malone were great, but they weren't better than Michael Jordan.  He had the sickest combination of talent and desire I've ever seen.  Bastard even scored 38 points on the Jazz in '97 when he was on death's door (Game 5).
 
 
lol the flu is deaths door?
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