Posted:
#176
GL Picker!!!
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1/26 - Longshot Parlays ($500 to win $100,000)
Posted:
#184
Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:
@geaux - Got to get yourself a new book! Just doing parlays with spreads doesn't reap the risk/reward benefit.
@geaux - Got to get yourself a new book! Just doing parlays with spreads doesn't reap the risk/reward benefit.
yes the combos of well thought picks increases ability to profit, excited to be signed up at nitrogen site gets great reviews, new to the bitcoin thing but pry something I should figure out anyhow , thanks again great post and info!picker
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Posted:
#186
If this is of use to anyone. I use Bet365 amongst other books, and on Bet365, once you add the 4 plays to your bet slip it gives you the option to do the round robin (which shows "x6 beside it) and you just punch in your chosen unit number and it does the round robin plays for you. Then I have to do the 3-sets and 4-set manually. Thought it may save someone time from manually doing all the 2-sets, and reduce the chance for error as well, cheers.
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Posted:
#187
@Teddyz - I'm seeing St. Peter cited as an upset a lot. Three public services all had them with the win outright.
That said, that recent loss to Niagra at home scares me.
Its a good matchup and I can see why you would be interested... I liked Virginia more for my parlay, but best of luck to ya with it.
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Posted:
#188
Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:
@Teddyz - I'm seeing St. Peter cited as an upset a lot. Three public services all had them with the win outright.
@Teddyz - I'm seeing St. Peter cited as an upset a lot. Three public services all had them with the win outright.
That said, that recent loss to Niagra at home scares me.
Its a good matchup and I can see why you would be interested... I liked Virginia more for my parlay, but best of luck to ya with it.
Thanks for your insight. GUD LUCK today!
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Posted:
#192
Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:
Alrighty folks... time to lock it in. Let me preface the picks by saying I don't feel particularly great about todays lineup. Not many games, too many dogs... something intuitively doesn't feel right. That said, the math is still adding up... so going to go ahead and push forward and post the picks. I recommend place just one unit worth of bets.
Alrighty folks... time to lock it in. Let me preface the picks by saying I don't feel particularly great about todays lineup. Not many games, too many dogs... something intuitively doesn't feel right. That said, the math is still adding up... so going to go ahead and push forward and post the picks. I recommend place just one unit worth of bets.
As a refresher... take a little more than your approximate average bet, divide it by 10, and thats your $ amount for each of the 11 combinations of the round robin parlay. Also, the backups were ones that I considered, but ultimately passed on as part of the core bet. I still may do one off 3 or 4 teams mixing between the two pools, but the round robin I'm betting comes from "THE BET" pool. I will weave NC State and BC into some combos. So... Without further ado:
THE BET
Virginia (+207)
Milwaukee (+563)
Washington State (+476)
Dallas Mavericks (+818)
THE BACKUPS
NC State (+900)
Northern Kentucky (+435)
Boston College (+677)
Happy Sunday Brotha and all in Covers Land 
Thank you again for your leans for today's games, as well as
all that vital info that you have been giving us.
BOL to all that are on this money train today
Cheers Gents & Gals
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Posted:
#193
Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:
Figured its time hop online and start posting my picks. Im up $30,000 for the season and the folks around me say I need to get into handicapping. Let me preface this by saying that unless you are Billy Walters or The Syndicate, 99% of you who bet on games straight up will lose. Between the vig eroding your winnings and the unpredictable nature of 19 year olds throwing a ball around, statistically speaking "the house always wins".That said, there is an alternative approach that I have been refining over the years which has achieved remarkable results, and that is the game of longshot money line round robin parlays.To put it plainly, money lines become relatively arbitrary when a team is an 8 point dog (+325-ish) and above. If you believe a team has a 20% chance of winning and is getting +900 on a ML, there is "value" there. In a multi team parlay, that value is assigned a multiplier. For instance, last night VMI was +2000 and Georgia Tech was +450. A $10 bet on those two teams would pay 114-1. Upsets like this happen more than you would think, and arguably all the time (just ask Duke how it feels). This strategy contends that systematically selecting (when available) the 3 or 4 best teams with the highest "value" in their moneyline odds, then round robin parlaying all 2,3,4 team combinations, that you will, over a season, extract more value than you ever could betting straight up. but you have to know which of the longshots to look for, and I believe, in the aggregate, I do.I will be tracking these bets two ways... I will track performance against the spread (so if none of my four picks hit ML, but all hit spread, I would be 4-0 on the spread and 0-1 on the win). My record will be a "win" if 2 of the four teams hit. Note a 2 team parlay with the odds I'm betting results in an average 5x payout. So if I go 2-4 with an average $50 unit bet on a four team round robin (5 teams total, $550 per four team play) then I'm up thousands. If 3 of those teams hit any of the nights, I'd be up $20k. If a four teamer hit (admittedly I've only done once in my life) it could pay in excess of $100k. Hope this makes sense to everyone. So, without further ado, here is the write up for tonight. BOL to all.
Figured its time hop online and start posting my picks. Im up $30,000 for the season and the folks around me say I need to get into handicapping. Let me preface this by saying that unless you are Billy Walters or The Syndicate, 99% of you who bet on games straight up will lose. Between the vig eroding your winnings and the unpredictable nature of 19 year olds throwing a ball around, statistically speaking "the house always wins".That said, there is an alternative approach that I have been refining over the years which has achieved remarkable results, and that is the game of longshot money line round robin parlays.To put it plainly, money lines become relatively arbitrary when a team is an 8 point dog (+325-ish) and above. If you believe a team has a 20% chance of winning and is getting +900 on a ML, there is "value" there. In a multi team parlay, that value is assigned a multiplier. For instance, last night VMI was +2000 and Georgia Tech was +450. A $10 bet on those two teams would pay 114-1. Upsets like this happen more than you would think, and arguably all the time (just ask Duke how it feels). This strategy contends that systematically selecting (when available) the 3 or 4 best teams with the highest "value" in their moneyline odds, then round robin parlaying all 2,3,4 team combinations, that you will, over a season, extract more value than you ever could betting straight up. but you have to know which of the longshots to look for, and I believe, in the aggregate, I do.I will be tracking these bets two ways... I will track performance against the spread (so if none of my four picks hit ML, but all hit spread, I would be 4-0 on the spread and 0-1 on the win). My record will be a "win" if 2 of the four teams hit. Note a 2 team parlay with the odds I'm betting results in an average 5x payout. So if I go 2-4 with an average $50 unit bet on a four team round robin (5 teams total, $550 per four team play) then I'm up thousands. If 3 of those teams hit any of the nights, I'd be up $20k. If a four teamer hit (admittedly I've only done once in my life) it could pay in excess of $100k. Hope this makes sense to everyone. So, without further ado, here is the write up for tonight. BOL to all.
Do u have tweeter bro ?
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Posted:
#195
I tried similar method with nba last season...4 to 5 heavy dogs team....2 team round robin plus little on parlay...started well then went dry for over a month and killed my bankroll. I like the idea though. Few good days and you are way up. I missed a huge 5 team parlay by one game. Only had $10 on it but would have paid $6k. Goodluck with the process. Hope we all get rich one way or another.
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Posted:
#200
Quickly learning the importance of brushing off the heartbreaking losses 
.. gonna be alot of them. Based on the way the Washington state start and Milwaukee game were going, I saw value in grabbing Villanova+5.5 for 1u to try and get a middle on it which hit. I think I'm gonna look for middles while trying to build a bankroll. And ouch Milwaukee 8-21 from the line as of this post, could have easily won buddy gets fouled taking a 3 with 6 seconds left with tie game and he misses all 3 smh. Great dog calls so far P-picker.. a few bounces and things could have been quite different
.. gonna be alot of them. Based on the way the Washington state start and Milwaukee game were going, I saw value in grabbing Villanova+5.5 for 1u to try and get a middle on it which hit. I think I'm gonna look for middles while trying to build a bankroll. And ouch Milwaukee 8-21 from the line as of this post, could have easily won buddy gets fouled taking a 3 with 6 seconds left with tie game and he misses all 3 smh. Great dog calls so far P-picker.. a few bounces and things could have been quite different
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