Posted:
#1
I and others have brough up points that the public loses when 80-100 percent is on one side in a game. Examples are found every week and from last week include 90 percent on the colts, and 90 percent on the jets. So.... Green bay and Oakland cashed in.
Think about it like this, if the 80-100 percent public plays cashed in often, why does Vegas keep making a killing year after year?
I do not even see the point of arguing this anymore, its a fact that the high public concensus/percentage plays at the 80-100 percent level lose much more often then they win.
My main theory this year was bet against the high public percentage plays. Since week 1, I have done very very well doing so. One last example.. last night 92 percent of the public was on Denver ML. Game over in the third quarter in favor of Pats.
It is stated the bookie, or Vegas always wins... And the bookie or vegas would NOT win if the 80-100 percent plays cashed, but they very seldom do.
Bash me if you want, I feel very confident in this area though, that when everyone likes one team, you should simply bet the opposite. It's the NFL and what makes no sense usually wins you 
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