The public will not lose on all of these... I think Carolina is their best chance to cover. Arizona travelling to the other coast is horrible and Kurt is having hand issues after Dallas.
San Fran I would think they lose if Hasleback plays. SEA has to be starving for a win right now and their pass rush should get to JT; they coaching change mid week should also hurt them this first week.
I think they lose on the Bills. Might be a letdown spot, Miami is much better statistically than people give them credit for and this line just screams trap.
No opinion on the Skins but I think there might be some reverse line movement on the Ravens line (not sure) in which case they are worth a look...
I think CIN is going to be a huge loss for the public. I cannot believe people are putting their faith in Ryan Fitz-fregging-Patrick. The Bills support I can see but not the Bengals love. I already thought Houston would beat them up and just like with Green Bay last week the public being completely against me seals the deal.
You actually believe these bullshit numbers?
******** analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public continued its losing ways, going 3-4, making the Public 21-27 for the season. The site had this to say about the SD-Bills game :
407 San Diego Chargers versus 408 Buffalo Bills
Very early sharp money moved the line from San Diego being a slight favorite to Buffalo being favored. Cris opened at SD -2, but is currently at Buffalo -1. The line moved fairly significantly, even though about two-thirds of the bets are landing on San Diego.
This kind of market action is a good indication that early, large money came in on Buffalo, overwhelming the Public's bets.
What you have to think about is this ...Those heavily sided teams are going to be for the most part , teams that arguably deserve all the attention , and in some cases it is the team that is being faded that is getting all the action.
In most cases , the line will move along , specially if it was not set at a key number , in other cases , despite the high percenatge of bets going to one side , the line will stay put ( specially if it rests at a key number ) , and in other less common cases , the line will go in the reverse side of where the higher percentages of bets are going .
What moves lines is not the volume of bets , but rather the amunt of money being bet . When the " people " betting the larger amounts are on the side as the greater percentage of bettors , then you have a line that moves in unison .
What happens most times is that as the line moves , the betting on one side slows , and the percentages decrease . When they don't and stay the same despite a line change , we assume that the betting public is still finding the line attractive . It is when the line refuses to budge or actually goes the other way that you ask yourself why is it , that more money is going the opposite way of most money !
As far as why it is profitable to bet against a heavy public consensus , this is not because the public is always wrong , but rather because the public does not always handicap the game correctly and favors the better team .
In anticipation , sportsbooks may set the opening line slighlty off to where they handicap it , and this might only be by 1/2 point or a full point. Their main concern is to bring balanced $ on both sides of the equation , and they are not concerned about percentages .
Should we be concerned about percenatges...? Well only in relation to line movement . When there should be movement , but there is none , you can be mostly certain that if you agree with the money side , you have probably handicapped this game correctly .
Another aspect to consider in why more than 50 % of wagers going against the heavy public team lose is that in a small but significant percentage of games , the increase in the line will cause some bettors to lose with the late line , when they could have pushed or even won with the early line .
So , it was the correct side for the public to be in as it opened , and the heavier bettors stole the value out of the opening line ...and the money . The closing line is what determines the succes or failure rate.
There are other aspects , of course ,,,
Most instances when a team attracts a large percentage of bets from the opening bell , the line will move up , and when at the end of the week you calculate how these heavily sided teams did , what line do you take into consideration to see how these teams fared ? The closing line , right ?... Well, if this defers from the opening line and the difference is the gap between a win and a push , or a win and a loss , or a push and a loss , then all else being the same , that will add a small winning percentage to the ' fade the public team theory , right ?
Getting your line established , assuming you handicap well, or trusting the " sharps " to do it for you and then looking for that line is most important . If you miss the boat , you must decide if it is still worth it , if you like the 'non public team " to begin with , you may find further value . Personally , I do not like knowing that I am on the heavily sided team or total when the line has gone the other way , or even stayed put , because it may mean that I , like most people have handicapped this game incorrectly , and if I find myself agreing with the high percentage and line going in unyson, I will feel alot better if I locked that bet in earlier , before it moved to that zone , where you're fighting more than you can handle ...
A bit of rambling late at night ...I hope I made some sense ...
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