I completely agree with collegegambler. Vegas knows what it is doing. NFL lines are very sharp. Vegas knows the public opinion of teams and they know where the action will be on certain teams.
The Chargers and LT are a high profile team coming off a primetime beating of the Pats. The Bills are more of an un-sexy team fresh off a beating in the desert. Vegas sets the line at Chargers -1 knowing that the suckers will jump all over it. Even with the high percentage (70-80 I think) of bettors on the Bolts the line goes nowhere. If the books wanted a 50/50 split the line would move to entice people to back the Bills. Same goes for Indy and Gang Green games. Either there is large money on the unpopular side and books are trying to get equal money and not percentages on both sides or Vegas is taking a big risk and cashing it in because they know something the public doesn't.
Agreed Fins are the play this week.
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I completely agree with collegegambler. Vegas knows what it is doing. NFL lines are very sharp. Vegas knows the public opinion of teams and they know where the action will be on certain teams.
The Chargers and LT are a high profile team coming off a primetime beating of the Pats. The Bills are more of an un-sexy team fresh off a beating in the desert. Vegas sets the line at Chargers -1 knowing that the suckers will jump all over it. Even with the high percentage (70-80 I think) of bettors on the Bolts the line goes nowhere. If the books wanted a 50/50 split the line would move to entice people to back the Bills. Same goes for Indy and Gang Green games. Either there is large money on the unpopular side and books are trying to get equal money and not percentages on both sides or Vegas is taking a big risk and cashing it in because they know something the public doesn't.
THEY TRY 2 SUCKER PEOPLE IN WITH THESE GREAT LOOKING LINES IT HAPPENS EVERY WEEK AND PEOPLE JUST GET KILLED TAKING THEM THEY ARE VERY GOOD AT FOOLING PEOPLE
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THEY TRY 2 SUCKER PEOPLE IN WITH THESE GREAT LOOKING LINES IT HAPPENS EVERY WEEK AND PEOPLE JUST GET KILLED TAKING THEM THEY ARE VERY GOOD AT FOOLING PEOPLE
Totally agree. I often play against the line movement and public perception, but it is easy to fall into the trap.
I had a good Satuday especially jumping on Texas as a -4, but a game that you recognized as a trap all week can still look at 3:00. NYJ -3. I hated this game all week but I still had 2nd thoughts at 3:00 for 15 minutes. Recognizing a trap and staying away from our 2 different things
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Totally agree. I often play against the line movement and public perception, but it is easy to fall into the trap.
I had a good Satuday especially jumping on Texas as a -4, but a game that you recognized as a trap all week can still look at 3:00. NYJ -3. I hated this game all week but I still had 2nd thoughts at 3:00 for 15 minutes. Recognizing a trap and staying away from our 2 different things
College, I like your thoughts. I brought this up last year as a college trend and many tools blew it off and tried to discredit it. However I have an extra component of the trend which is this...When there is a home dog and the public is on the favorite 70% or more the home dog was pretty solid all year.
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College, I like your thoughts. I brought this up last year as a college trend and many tools blew it off and tried to discredit it. However I have an extra component of the trend which is this...When there is a home dog and the public is on the favorite 70% or more the home dog was pretty solid all year.
Basically its just common sense, when a line looks to easy or to good to be true, it is. Stay away from the "easy picks." Paying attention to line movements, and fading the public are only things to take into consideration they certainly help but aren't in themselves the end all be all.
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Basically its just common sense, when a line looks to easy or to good to be true, it is. Stay away from the "easy picks." Paying attention to line movements, and fading the public are only things to take into consideration they certainly help but aren't in themselves the end all be all.
i believe vegas to be trapping folks tonight on the phillies tampa game
hamels at almost even money looks too good to be true thats why im leaning toward the rays with momentum, home field and luck on their side .......... any thoughts
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i believe vegas to be trapping folks tonight on the phillies tampa game
hamels at almost even money looks too good to be true thats why im leaning toward the rays with momentum, home field and luck on their side .......... any thoughts
vegas is vegas. this week could be a "swing" if you will...
having the consensus lose 3 weeks in a row gives the vegas cappers an oppertunity to cash in on the next few weeks by giving the public a win this week. by showing some inconsistency in trends, the games become are very unpredictable.
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vegas is vegas. this week could be a "swing" if you will...
having the consensus lose 3 weeks in a row gives the vegas cappers an oppertunity to cash in on the next few weeks by giving the public a win this week. by showing some inconsistency in trends, the games become are very unpredictable.
Lines are set pretty much by a standard rule taking in consideration of how the teams played throughout the year with all the stats such as strength of schedule, injuries, and home field. I'm pretty sure many long time cappers here can predict lines that are pretty close to the opening lines from looking at the match up, stats, and most importanty, experience. They don't right away assume the line should be such and such because last week this team lost in a blow out and the other team won in blow out. It's the perception is whether a team is that good or that bad that make people (joe public) over analyze the spread.
Let's take the Jets/Raiders game for example. Yes the Jets have been playing well lately but exactly who has they played, especially at home. Going on the road giving 3 to the bad Raiders team. Remember giving 3 on the road is like giving 6 or or 6.5 because of homefield advantage. People only saw how bad the Raiders are and how explosive the Jets can be with Farve but the Raiders strength is their D with good corners. The Jets almost lost to Cincy with Fitzpatrick at QB at home. The final score was misleading.
Now let's take the Denver/New England game, yes New England played terrible against San Diego and everyone saw it on national television. Next week they're giving 3 to a decent Denver team and people were like Denver will win SU. Exactly who has Denver played and who had they beat up in convincing fashion, the Raiders? Denver should have lost to NO and SD at home in the first place. Besides losing Tom Brady, NE still has the entire core players, veterans with pride, especially after the ass whooping they took on national tv. We all know that Denver has one of the worst D in the league yet lots of people still do not want to use those info in capping but instead only what they saw on TV of how a team perform. They forgot that this is a league where on any given Sunday, a bad team can beat a good team but that does not make the bad team a good team.
Personally, if I don't feel comfortable with the line or the way the line moves, I don't play the game. There are so many more games to bet on, why try to force action on a game where you think it's fishy yet the only reason you can come up with is "fishy".
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Lines are set pretty much by a standard rule taking in consideration of how the teams played throughout the year with all the stats such as strength of schedule, injuries, and home field. I'm pretty sure many long time cappers here can predict lines that are pretty close to the opening lines from looking at the match up, stats, and most importanty, experience. They don't right away assume the line should be such and such because last week this team lost in a blow out and the other team won in blow out. It's the perception is whether a team is that good or that bad that make people (joe public) over analyze the spread.
Let's take the Jets/Raiders game for example. Yes the Jets have been playing well lately but exactly who has they played, especially at home. Going on the road giving 3 to the bad Raiders team. Remember giving 3 on the road is like giving 6 or or 6.5 because of homefield advantage. People only saw how bad the Raiders are and how explosive the Jets can be with Farve but the Raiders strength is their D with good corners. The Jets almost lost to Cincy with Fitzpatrick at QB at home. The final score was misleading.
Now let's take the Denver/New England game, yes New England played terrible against San Diego and everyone saw it on national television. Next week they're giving 3 to a decent Denver team and people were like Denver will win SU. Exactly who has Denver played and who had they beat up in convincing fashion, the Raiders? Denver should have lost to NO and SD at home in the first place. Besides losing Tom Brady, NE still has the entire core players, veterans with pride, especially after the ass whooping they took on national tv. We all know that Denver has one of the worst D in the league yet lots of people still do not want to use those info in capping but instead only what they saw on TV of how a team perform. They forgot that this is a league where on any given Sunday, a bad team can beat a good team but that does not make the bad team a good team.
Personally, if I don't feel comfortable with the line or the way the line moves, I don't play the game. There are so many more games to bet on, why try to force action on a game where you think it's fishy yet the only reason you can come up with is "fishy".
i tried the "anti-public" theory one year and got crushed. i'm glad you are doing well but be careful. there are no sure things. i just have to disagree with everyone about the jets. what made you think they were a "trap game". have you seen them play? have you seen their schedule? they are horrible. they travel cross country to play a team that is bad, but loaded with young talent. they also can concentrate on football now that the coach who didn't want to coach them had left. now they are playing for a coordinator they love. they still suck, but the jets play like they are in a coma and struggle despite their cake schedule. i hammered the raiders. i don't understand why anyone would think the jets were the "obvious" play although i understand betting on oakland is hard to do. i gritted my teeth.
i don't think you can only place your bets on vegas. i picked that game by my knowledge of football and emotions. that is not an exact science at all and is also dangerous. i believe you need to look at both to win. i didn't know the jets were being picked by anyone. i didn't care. same think with NE on monday night. my friends will tell you that i said this would be a burial. denver was really 2-4 without the ref and grammitca. i said this was a "STATEMENT GAME" for new england. the statement was that you still have to deal us despite our struggles and the whole nation will see it. that's knowing how belecheck thinks and coaches. they came out like it was the superbowl. denver, a horrible road team, wanted no part of the pats. that's not % betting. that's football betting. neither one guarantees anything. just as a side bar: can someone explain to me why jay cutler is considered even average as a QB? i think he is one of the worst. i don't get it. the play against SD was unreal. he's never accomplished anything, is not a leader, and is injury prone. i also liked the tv shot of him laughing on the sidelines when his team was getting pasted. what a competitor. the final straw is when he told a magazine he had a stronger arm than john elway and never backed off the statement. WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! john elway has a stronger arm TODAY than cutler will ever have. elway could have been a major league pitcher if he chose. how can you even mention your name in the same breath as elway? denver needs to get rid of him while they can get something for him. he is a hoax. finally, hurry up offense, mike shan, look into it. you looked like a pee wee coach monday.
hitting over 70% for the year. no losing weeks. i think they call that the calm before the storm.
I dont think that anyone can really take complete bragging rights for picking that New England game properly. For anyone who watched the game, Denvers opening drive looked good before the injuries to Cutler and Pittman. They looked like they were going to open the scoring for sure, until injuries forced them to put that fumbling donkey Hall into the game. It changed the momentum, and in my eyes, the end result of the game. What happens if Cutler doesnt get hurt, Pittman doesnt get rocked, an they keep moving the ball down the field and go up 7-0? I think that the "emotions" of that drive really affected the outcome. Yes New England won, but dont kid yourselves in thinking that those variables didnt have anything to do with it. Denver played with no emotion in the second half, and Moss only had a huge game due to injuries to Bailey ( top 5 CB in the league) and Bly. The fact of the matter is, the broncos are a bunch of whiney, heartless, spineless, pussies. But if they run the ball down New Englands throat and go up an early score, WHICH THEY WERE, I think you see a more tighter ballgame, if not a Denver win.
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Quote Originally Posted by mattyc:
i tried the "anti-public" theory one year and got crushed. i'm glad you are doing well but be careful. there are no sure things. i just have to disagree with everyone about the jets. what made you think they were a "trap game". have you seen them play? have you seen their schedule? they are horrible. they travel cross country to play a team that is bad, but loaded with young talent. they also can concentrate on football now that the coach who didn't want to coach them had left. now they are playing for a coordinator they love. they still suck, but the jets play like they are in a coma and struggle despite their cake schedule. i hammered the raiders. i don't understand why anyone would think the jets were the "obvious" play although i understand betting on oakland is hard to do. i gritted my teeth.
i don't think you can only place your bets on vegas. i picked that game by my knowledge of football and emotions. that is not an exact science at all and is also dangerous. i believe you need to look at both to win. i didn't know the jets were being picked by anyone. i didn't care. same think with NE on monday night. my friends will tell you that i said this would be a burial. denver was really 2-4 without the ref and grammitca. i said this was a "STATEMENT GAME" for new england. the statement was that you still have to deal us despite our struggles and the whole nation will see it. that's knowing how belecheck thinks and coaches. they came out like it was the superbowl. denver, a horrible road team, wanted no part of the pats. that's not % betting. that's football betting. neither one guarantees anything. just as a side bar: can someone explain to me why jay cutler is considered even average as a QB? i think he is one of the worst. i don't get it. the play against SD was unreal. he's never accomplished anything, is not a leader, and is injury prone. i also liked the tv shot of him laughing on the sidelines when his team was getting pasted. what a competitor. the final straw is when he told a magazine he had a stronger arm than john elway and never backed off the statement. WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! john elway has a stronger arm TODAY than cutler will ever have. elway could have been a major league pitcher if he chose. how can you even mention your name in the same breath as elway? denver needs to get rid of him while they can get something for him. he is a hoax. finally, hurry up offense, mike shan, look into it. you looked like a pee wee coach monday.
hitting over 70% for the year. no losing weeks. i think they call that the calm before the storm.
I dont think that anyone can really take complete bragging rights for picking that New England game properly. For anyone who watched the game, Denvers opening drive looked good before the injuries to Cutler and Pittman. They looked like they were going to open the scoring for sure, until injuries forced them to put that fumbling donkey Hall into the game. It changed the momentum, and in my eyes, the end result of the game. What happens if Cutler doesnt get hurt, Pittman doesnt get rocked, an they keep moving the ball down the field and go up 7-0? I think that the "emotions" of that drive really affected the outcome. Yes New England won, but dont kid yourselves in thinking that those variables didnt have anything to do with it. Denver played with no emotion in the second half, and Moss only had a huge game due to injuries to Bailey ( top 5 CB in the league) and Bly. The fact of the matter is, the broncos are a bunch of whiney, heartless, spineless, pussies. But if they run the ball down New Englands throat and go up an early score, WHICH THEY WERE, I think you see a more tighter ballgame, if not a Denver win.
One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is "All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides"
Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side?
I have NEVER believed that bullshit.
sigh... some people will never learn...
it is simple mathematics... if you are getting a vig, you win money simply by getting equal action, regardless of who wins...
and the guy who pointed out that you are a sucker if you are believing the public % numbers the books are giving you... was dead on! if this information could be used AGAINST the books, why would they give it to you? because they are generous?
simpletons... gotta love 'em...
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is "All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides"
Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side?
I have NEVER believed that bullshit.
sigh... some people will never learn...
it is simple mathematics... if you are getting a vig, you win money simply by getting equal action, regardless of who wins...
and the guy who pointed out that you are a sucker if you are believing the public % numbers the books are giving you... was dead on! if this information could be used AGAINST the books, why would they give it to you? because they are generous?
and they don't need to sucker people with bad lines... people are suckers to begin with and don't know how to handicap the games... if a line looks fishy, it's because you don't know what the correct line should be, and they do...
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and they don't need to sucker people with bad lines... people are suckers to begin with and don't know how to handicap the games... if a line looks fishy, it's because you don't know what the correct line should be, and they do...
if you watch college games during the week alot of dogs are covering or winning outright i dont know the numbers or percenatges but it might be something for you to look at you if you like fading the public
gl on your plays
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if you watch college games during the week alot of dogs are covering or winning outright i dont know the numbers or percenatges but it might be something for you to look at you if you like fading the public
and they don't need to sucker people with bad lines... people are suckers to begin with and don't know how to handicap the games... if a line looks fishy, it's because you don't know what the correct line should be, and they do...
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Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:
and they don't need to sucker people with bad lines... people are suckers to begin with and don't know how to handicap the games... if a line looks fishy, it's because you don't know what the correct line should be, and they do...
Early Sunday morning, as gamblers flood the sports books, a group of Las Vegas-based "sports junkies" are cooking up the lines for the following week's NFL matchups.
Roxy Roxborough, former owner of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, was asked what it takes to be an oddsmaker.
"I've always believed that any odds making brew includes parts of both art and science," Roxborough said. "The degree to which each ingredient appears depends on who's stirring the pot. The guys setting the lines are all individuals, with their own preferences and procedures, but everyone has to take both aspects of oddsmaking into account."
LVSC odds manager Cesar Robaina, a believer in the intuitive school of oddsmaking, stated, "Not all sports are the same, but when it comes to the NFL, I sort of feel the number. I then pull out the stat book and validate the number by checking the power ratings, betting patterns and other hard data to make sure everything makes sense.
"In the NFL, where the public really gets involved, you can get a feel for the number pretty easily. There are other areas, such as college football and NBA totals, where professional gamblers have been particularly successful that you have to look at the mathematical approach a little more."
The meeting of the sports junky minds begins on Sundays at approximately 4:15 p.m. Five guys push their desks together, forming an octagon, as they pore over the upcoming contests.
Game by game, each oddsmaker discusses his theory on the correct point spread. After consideration of each individual's opinion, a line is set and the numbers are shipped off to the Las Vegas Stardust where management, along with outside consultants, review the numbers, make adjustments and then post the lines.
A group of bettors known as sharks or "Wise Guys" draw straws to see who's the lucky guy to make the first bets. These professionals then take turns betting the games, as the sports book personnel adjust the lines and attempt to balance the action. Betting continues until the last "Wise Guy" believes the numbers no longer offer him/her any value or advantage.
Monday mornings, linesmakers across the state begin putting up the numbers that reflect the opinion of the smartest players in the business, a group of individuals who attempt to make a living betting sports. As one Wise Guy said when it comes to posting the lines, "The early bird gets the number." Then again, as I am fond of telling all you "dog" bettors, "The patient investor will be rewarded with the extra point."
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By Steve Schorr, Tahoe Tribune correspondent
Early Sunday morning, as gamblers flood the sports books, a group of Las Vegas-based "sports junkies" are cooking up the lines for the following week's NFL matchups.
Roxy Roxborough, former owner of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, was asked what it takes to be an oddsmaker.
"I've always believed that any odds making brew includes parts of both art and science," Roxborough said. "The degree to which each ingredient appears depends on who's stirring the pot. The guys setting the lines are all individuals, with their own preferences and procedures, but everyone has to take both aspects of oddsmaking into account."
LVSC odds manager Cesar Robaina, a believer in the intuitive school of oddsmaking, stated, "Not all sports are the same, but when it comes to the NFL, I sort of feel the number. I then pull out the stat book and validate the number by checking the power ratings, betting patterns and other hard data to make sure everything makes sense.
"In the NFL, where the public really gets involved, you can get a feel for the number pretty easily. There are other areas, such as college football and NBA totals, where professional gamblers have been particularly successful that you have to look at the mathematical approach a little more."
The meeting of the sports junky minds begins on Sundays at approximately 4:15 p.m. Five guys push their desks together, forming an octagon, as they pore over the upcoming contests.
Game by game, each oddsmaker discusses his theory on the correct point spread. After consideration of each individual's opinion, a line is set and the numbers are shipped off to the Las Vegas Stardust where management, along with outside consultants, review the numbers, make adjustments and then post the lines.
A group of bettors known as sharks or "Wise Guys" draw straws to see who's the lucky guy to make the first bets. These professionals then take turns betting the games, as the sports book personnel adjust the lines and attempt to balance the action. Betting continues until the last "Wise Guy" believes the numbers no longer offer him/her any value or advantage.
Monday mornings, linesmakers across the state begin putting up the numbers that reflect the opinion of the smartest players in the business, a group of individuals who attempt to make a living betting sports. As one Wise Guy said when it comes to posting the lines, "The early bird gets the number." Then again, as I am fond of telling all you "dog" bettors, "The patient investor will be rewarded with the extra point."
One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is "All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides"
Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side?
I have NEVER believed that bullshit.
They set you up with their lines. They want to sucker the unwise in and they do it very successfully.
Ahh...the ALWAYS mistaken public consensus numbers for vegas' books issue.
Greyhound i'd expect more from an allstar. Getting even books at game time is their only motivation period! No risk, just collect the vig. That is how vegas wins year in and year out collegegambler...zero risk. Now they do use their expertise to set a line to make sure the dumb public puts enough money to even the sharps' money. And its up to you to find that inflated line...thats where simply capping the game and not worrying about the consensus can yield you the same results...(CG all those games that you mention you won by fading the public...i won too, but didn't look at the consensus numbers for one second.)
Lets get one thing straight, the consensus numbers are the number of bettors on a side, not a measure on which side has more money on it...we don't know how the money is coming in...ever! Those of you that put all this power in the consensus numbers from wagerline, vegasinsider, etc, must realize that is only the number of bets on a side not the amount of money!
Easy example: Lets say one guy puts 1 million on a side and 1000 "public" people hammer the other side at 100 dollars a bet...the books still have an uneven book by 900k!...so they bump the line and all these people claim "look at the reverse line movement" when nothing has changed.
Simply cap the game and arrive at a spread you think is logical. If the line your book gives you is way off, then hammer it, end of story. Even better have multiple books to shop for the line that you think gives you the best edge. If you cant follow that logic then quit gambling.
If you must use consensus numbers to help make your decision, a good rule of thumb would be to use it to convince yourself of a no play...in other words if you are on the same side as 80-100% of the consensus, then use that as a reason to not bet, and not a reason to take the other side.
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is "All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides"
Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side?
I have NEVER believed that bullshit.
They set you up with their lines. They want to sucker the unwise in and they do it very successfully.
Ahh...the ALWAYS mistaken public consensus numbers for vegas' books issue.
Greyhound i'd expect more from an allstar. Getting even books at game time is their only motivation period! No risk, just collect the vig. That is how vegas wins year in and year out collegegambler...zero risk. Now they do use their expertise to set a line to make sure the dumb public puts enough money to even the sharps' money. And its up to you to find that inflated line...thats where simply capping the game and not worrying about the consensus can yield you the same results...(CG all those games that you mention you won by fading the public...i won too, but didn't look at the consensus numbers for one second.)
Lets get one thing straight, the consensus numbers are the number of bettors on a side, not a measure on which side has more money on it...we don't know how the money is coming in...ever! Those of you that put all this power in the consensus numbers from wagerline, vegasinsider, etc, must realize that is only the number of bets on a side not the amount of money!
Easy example: Lets say one guy puts 1 million on a side and 1000 "public" people hammer the other side at 100 dollars a bet...the books still have an uneven book by 900k!...so they bump the line and all these people claim "look at the reverse line movement" when nothing has changed.
Simply cap the game and arrive at a spread you think is logical. If the line your book gives you is way off, then hammer it, end of story. Even better have multiple books to shop for the line that you think gives you the best edge. If you cant follow that logic then quit gambling.
If you must use consensus numbers to help make your decision, a good rule of thumb would be to use it to convince yourself of a no play...in other words if you are on the same side as 80-100% of the consensus, then use that as a reason to not bet, and not a reason to take the other side.
Vegas is not setting you up they are giving a line that is usually right on and what the public does with that info is why people think vegas is suckering in people with these line.
Buffalo/SD last week even game according to vegas and it was until Buff pulled ahead and won. Samething with the colts the public didnt believe that the Packers could beat the Colts in Greenbay, and they were wrong and Vegas was right. Listen to what Vegas is telling you
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Vegas is not setting you up they are giving a line that is usually right on and what the public does with that info is why people think vegas is suckering in people with these line.
Buffalo/SD last week even game according to vegas and it was until Buff pulled ahead and won. Samething with the colts the public didnt believe that the Packers could beat the Colts in Greenbay, and they were wrong and Vegas was right. Listen to what Vegas is telling you
It has nothing to do with the amount of money on a team, it's the "NUMBER" of total bets.
I've charted line movements for over 15 years, keeping accurate, organized records, I don't use quess work or speculation.
I've charted the 80% , this season it's 14-12 ATS, yes it produced a winning record to date.
A book wants even action on both teams, the line movement tells one if they have it, "NOT THOSE %".
It's very simple.
Joe public comes along and drops $20 on a team, well, 1 big money player drops $10,000 on the other and that kinda wipes out alot of $20, $50 or $100 bets from Joe Public, that's why you have reverse line movements becuse the bigger, much bigger bets are coming in on the 20% team.
To see which team recieving more action, which team Vegas needs look at the line movement "NOT" the 80%.
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AWESOME POST GOODKNOWLEDGE !!!!!
People are still confused by these 80% numbers.
It has nothing to do with the amount of money on a team, it's the "NUMBER" of total bets.
I've charted line movements for over 15 years, keeping accurate, organized records, I don't use quess work or speculation.
I've charted the 80% , this season it's 14-12 ATS, yes it produced a winning record to date.
A book wants even action on both teams, the line movement tells one if they have it, "NOT THOSE %".
It's very simple.
Joe public comes along and drops $20 on a team, well, 1 big money player drops $10,000 on the other and that kinda wipes out alot of $20, $50 or $100 bets from Joe Public, that's why you have reverse line movements becuse the bigger, much bigger bets are coming in on the 20% team.
To see which team recieving more action, which team Vegas needs look at the line movement "NOT" the 80%.
One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is "All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides"
Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side?
I have NEVER believed that bullshit.
They set you up with their lines. They want to sucker the unwise in and they do it very successfully.
I could not agree with you more Hound. It is trap games everywhere on the board, week in and week out. It is up to us to indentify these games, and exploit them, which is what I have been doing all season long.
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is "All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides"
Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side?
I have NEVER believed that bullshit.
They set you up with their lines. They want to sucker the unwise in and they do it very successfully.
I could not agree with you more Hound. It is trap games everywhere on the board, week in and week out. It is up to us to indentify these games, and exploit them, which is what I have been doing all season long.
College....fading is a great method but there should be guidelines. I agree with one of the posts in here where it is suggested to get your public concensus from a few sites and not just one site. Possibly get an average from a few sites and find the highest public picks. I will be following along for the weekend to see how this plays out.
Also, please post what your picks would be using this method prior to the games on sunday so we could all follow.
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College....fading is a great method but there should be guidelines. I agree with one of the posts in here where it is suggested to get your public concensus from a few sites and not just one site. Possibly get an average from a few sites and find the highest public picks. I will be following along for the weekend to see how this plays out.
Also, please post what your picks would be using this method prior to the games on sunday so we could all follow.
<<<<<<<< "ThtsGoodKnwldge" is one of the few who understand...and sadly, most will refuse to listen or even attempt to understand him, because they have already been bitten on the neck by the vampire sportsbook, and they are the "undead" who walk around worshipping the words of the vampire sportsbook. Their blood has been sucked and they are hooked. In my book, there are ways for the undead to come alive again but it's hard to wean them away from the master they love to serve.
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<<<<<<<< "ThtsGoodKnwldge" is one of the few who understand...and sadly, most will refuse to listen or even attempt to understand him, because they have already been bitten on the neck by the vampire sportsbook, and they are the "undead" who walk around worshipping the words of the vampire sportsbook. Their blood has been sucked and they are hooked. In my book, there are ways for the undead to come alive again but it's hard to wean them away from the master they love to serve.
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Totally agree. I often play against the line movement and public perception, but it is easy to fall into the trap. 
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