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80-100% percent of the public on one side, games in the NFL

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Posted: #101
Raidermex runs 80-20 contests in all sports almost every season...He's been a little lax tho' this year and a lot of them haven't turned out so well, you can find them in the archives, but here's the one on the NFL for this season, if anybody wants to try their stuff out, based on where you're getting your numbers...

Raidermex had a good weekend last weekend...I don't think he has a contest for college though...If anyone has the time just go to 'concensus' and back-drop to all the previous game days and check the winners...It's easy but time consuming...been there-done that...



 

NFL 80/20 Rule

 
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Posted: #102
CollegeGambler your respect is found in your bankroll, not from clowns on a message board. Keep doing your thing and let the suckers fall.
 
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Posted: #103

Quote Originally Posted by NicFrost:



I dont think that anyone can really take complete bragging rights for picking that New England game properly. For anyone who watched the game, Denvers opening drive looked good before the injuries to Cutler and Pittman. They looked like they were going to open the scoring for sure, until injuries forced them to put that fumbling donkey Hall into the game. It changed the momentum, and in my eyes, the end result of the game. What happens if Cutler doesnt get hurt, Pittman doesnt get rocked, an they keep moving the ball down the field and go up 7-0? I think that the "emotions" of that drive really affected the outcome. Yes New England won, but dont kid yourselves in thinking that those variables didnt have anything to do with it. Denver played with no emotion in the second half, and Moss only had a huge game due to injuries to Bailey ( top 5 CB in the league) and Bly. The fact of the matter is, the broncos are a bunch of whiney, heartless, spineless, pussies. But if they run the ball down New Englands throat and go up an early score, WHICH THEY WERE, I think you see a more tighter ballgame, if not a Denver win.

i did say denver was gutless. also, who injured cutler and pittman, themselves? if that's how you look at football games, there's nothing that i can say to help you. denver possibly win???? WHAT??????????

 
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Posted: #104
perperutalgroove- your exactly right, and I have been making Bank all year, its been awsome.
 
Maddenguru-  I posted my picks, last week  I had $100 on Green Bay,  $75 on Oakland,  lost a 10 dollar crazy parlay, and had $30 on seattle (luckiest bet ever)  and $60 on the Patriots.   All 4 plays were "non public" plays,  check my other threads I posted my picks hours before 1pm Sunday kickoff.
 
Good luck this week fellas, I will be away starting Friday, so my plays for the weekend will be posted sometime tonight or tomorow.
 
Good luck 
 
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Posted: #105
quote
Posted: 10/19/2008 5:46:58 AM
90 percent on the chargers over the Fins laying 6.5      Forget taking the points  Fins win the game outright.
 
week 2     Saints at Skins      public pounds saints  because of there  hyped up bullshit from all the predictors, and the skins are coming off a pathetic thurs night performance   Skins win and cover
 
week 1  Seattle at Buffalo     pulic loves seattle, they make the playoffs every year, buffalo is a perenial 7-9 team     buffalo in a rout
 
Gmen at Browns    GMen world champs, juggernuats etc..   Brownies  cant score cant do shit, only beat bungels  forget the plus  8    browns in a rout.
 
Green Bay at Tampa      Packers only loss at the time was to the  already crowned "super bowl Cowboys" LOL     tampa cant score, getting old    public pounds pack   30-21  tampa
 
Minny at Saints    Saints only laying 3????  minny was 1-3 no qb, no secondary  no problem  public on the saints ,   minny wins outright.
 
 
There are even  more examples    Squares do not win, public does not win.   
 
Its NFL sunday   fade any public percentage in the 80-100 percent range, especially 90 percent or more!!
 
So     Packers plus 1.5   and Raiders plus 3     Dont fuck around with the other games,  fade the shit as public and collect your dough.
 
 
Maddenguru- this was just a post I did last week before the games. I included the date so, you knew I bet the games before kickoff.
 
Picks for this week will be posted before I leave for my trip on Friday.
 
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Posted: #106
[Pro Football] Topic: Public is on Denver tonight
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Posted: 10/20/2008 12:51:09 PM
Not at  huge levels but i see them at at least 60 percent and at some places near 70-75 percent.    Pats coming off a loss, belicheck will have a scheme to stymie  Cutler.  I like the pats tonight, they are getting no respect  remember they are still 3-2 and have only played two home games.
 
Pats by 10.
 
 
Here was my post from Monday night before the Pats thrashing of Denver.
 
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Posted: #107
[Pro Football] Topic: Monday nighter
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Posted: 10/20/2008 6:47:08 PM
Pats coming off loss, public is on Denver at like 70 percent levels,  I think the pats will be able to run the ball, and bellicheck will scheme to disrupt Cutler.  
 
Pats minus 3    $60
 
good luck  everyone either side.
 
 
 
prediction of pounding the ball down denvers throat, and Bellicheck schemes to confuse Cutler.   This just proves I can do more then fade the public totally, as everyone accuses me of. lol
 
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Posted: #108
[Pro Football] Topic: Proof the public is terrible
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quote
Posted: 10/19/2008 5:46:58 AM
90 percent on the chargers over the Fins laying 6.5      Forget taking the points  Fins win the game outright.
 
week 2     Saints at Skins      public pounds saints  because of there  hyped up bullshit from all the predictors, and the skins are coming off a pathetic thurs night performance   Skins win and cover
 
week 1  Seattle at Buffalo     pulic loves seattle, they make the playoffs every year, buffalo is a perenial 7-9 team     buffalo in a rout
 
Gmen at Browns    GMen world champs, juggernuats etc..   Brownies  cant score cant do shit, only beat bungels  forget the plus  8    browns in a rout.
 
Green Bay at Tampa      Packers only loss at the time was to the  already crowned "super bowl Cowboys" LOL     tampa cant score, getting old    public pounds pack   30-21  tampa
 
Minny at Saints    Saints only laying 3????  minny was 1-3 no qb, no secondary  no problem  public on the saints ,   minny wins outright.
 
 
There are even  more examples    Squares do not win, public does not win.   
 
Its NFL sunday   fade any public percentage in the 80-100 percent range, especially 90 percent or more!!
 
So     Packers plus 1.5   and Raiders plus 3     Dont fuck around with the other games,  fade the shit as public and collect your dough.
 
 
Im lousy and copy and pasting, and now I inclued my name here to show that I actually made these picks.
 
Good luck this weekend. Lets stay hot everyone, try my theory.
 
So far Miami plus 1 is a soli bet for all the reasons included in this thread.
 
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Posted: #109
Collegegambler is sooo right. I am a small sports investment broker(AKA bookmaker) with about 15 clients. Everytime I get everybody on one side; without question the side will lose at least 90 percent of the time. In fact, I have a guy who calls and asks me who everybody is on and he goes the other way. He has won overall in football three years in a row. Amazing but true.
 
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Posted: #110
fading public will give u 52% all year giving you 0$ gL though
 
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Posted: #111
yea but fading the 90 percent plus games   gives u BANK!!!
 
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Posted: #112
this weekend   miami plus 1  $75   Pittsburgh minus 2.5 or 3 $100  and  Dallas minus 2?   $50
 
good luck  everyone
 
the big public fade is the buffalo at miami game,  with the fins being my favorite team thanks for pounding buffalo public  GO finssssss
 
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Posted: #113
gmen will reverse forutne this year and will be like 6-2 or 7-1 at home and  3-5 or 4-4 on the road. Only steelers third home game of the year. and they are a legitc AFC contender as long as their o-line plays decent.
 
Dallas is desperate and the Bucs are playing over there head at 5-2.  I hate dallas but they are home, and with this line all they basically have to do is win,  they will be ready for this football game.
 
 
good luck everyone, hate me or like me good luck hope   we all hit BANK this weekend
 
 
lets get that  brinks armored truck  ready for our adresses  haha good luck.
 
Good luck, wont be back until sunday, going away this weekend will be at my buddys just in time for NFL sunday of course, and will be back on the fourms   win or lose after the games on sunday
 
good luck everyone, hate me or like me dosent matter good luck!!
 
 
 
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Posted: #114
Even if the consesus goes one way, you still don't know the bet "vector" quantity.  this means that even though 80% of the bettors are on one team, the total amount of money bet will never be known.  That will only be known by the people who take the bets, so most assumptions made about the "public" are often wrong.  This is akin to 10 people making $5.00 bets on one team and 1 person betting $1000 on the other team.  Where is the real consensus?
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlag:

Damn Peppy...You may be the 'master' of prose...That's some good stuff...
   Thanks!
 
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Posted: #116
sigh... some people will never learn... it is simple mathematics... if you are getting a vig, you win money simply by getting equal action, regardless of who wins... and the guy who pointed out that you are a sucker if you are believing the public % numbers the books are giving you... was dead on!  if this information could be used AGAINST the books, why would they give it to you?  because they are generous?...simpletons... gotta love 'em...
 
Ah, a "line is what it is" person. My kind of guy. Even my wife understands the concept of a line always being correct, that there is no such thing as a trap (except in the bettors' own mind), and she doesn't gamble! If, in the fourth quarter or in OT, Jamarcus Russell had dropped back to throw, been hit, ball pops loose and Jets scoop it up and return it for a TD, then the Jets win and cover and all the supposedly "trapped" people would have won. A game straddling the spread is always one play away from being busted, by either side. Anyone who bet on Raiders-Jets was pretty much lucky/unlucky. They should have been on St. Louis or Carolina, sides who left no doubt. If people keep getting involved in games that straddle the spread till the end, they will win some, lose some, and be long-term 50-percenters. 50-percenters lose. The sportsbooks love long-term 50-percenters because they keep the sportsbook's profits coming in. 
 
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Posted: #117
EXCELLENT
 
 
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Posted: #118
Why do you believe the Fake % ???
 
Why is the Money  Wagered not Released ???
 
 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #119
 
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Posted: #120
love this thread
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by peppy222:

<<<<<<<<  "ThtsGoodKnwldge" is one of the few who understand...and sadly, most will refuse to listen or even attempt to understand him, because they have already been bitten on the neck by the vampire sportsbook, and they are the "undead" who walk around worshipping the words of the vampire sportsbook. Their blood has been sucked and they are hooked. In my book, there are ways for the undead to come alive again but it's hard to wean them away from the master they love to serve.
      NOW THAT IS FUNNY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Why do you believe the Fake % ???
 
Why is the Money  Wagered not Released ???
 
 

that is the question none of these clowns ever ask?  those numbers are intended to mislead people... they know people are simplistic thinkers, and can't get beyond a big % number and an opposite line move...

i am convinced some genius sportsbook manager is the one who came up with the idea to release these numbers, knowing that it would be one more way to sucker bettors looking for an easy way out...

 
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Posted: #123
the fake percetages all this horseshit,   all i know is the bookie owes me his ass, and hopefully it continues. 
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:

that is the question none of these clowns ever ask?  those numbers are intended to mislead people... they know people are simplistic thinkers, and can't get beyond a big % number and an opposite line move...

i am convinced some genius sportsbook manager is the one who came up with the idea to release these numbers, knowing that it would be one more way to sucker bettors looking for an easy way out...

 

I look at those numbers but then check them with my 2 bookie friends that have over 100 customers each and they are usually pretty close.Like a couple of MNF ago they both  had about 75% on the NYG.

Again those are the number of people wagering not money.The public does lose but you can't soley fade them everytime you  have to still do your homework and incorperate that into your pick.There's no doubt which way the puclic is betting,their perception and line movements should b e used but not by itself.If you know what you are doing it can be a big asset to your picks

 
 
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Posted: #125
remember this weekend  miami, pitts, and dallas
 
 
good luck
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