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80-100% percent of the public on one side, games in the NFL

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Veteran
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Posted: #276
Of course they have a chance
 
Prospect
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Posted: #277
yes i think they have a good chance if brad doesnt throw any int's and the d gets pressure on eli.
 
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Posted: #278
CG,
i believe in what your sayin, the teams this week to watch are oak, nati, stl, seattle to win or cover as dogs
miami and washington are possible contenders also but will have to watch the consensus
in baseball philly played great, but if  the rays won vegas was going to lose over 300 million, hummmm
a few years ago the public pounded the detroit tigers and the cardinals won....funny how that plays out

 
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Posted: #279
CG,
 
Good work, never read your stuff before but you are right on the money.  I love CLEV, RAMS and Giants this week.  Dallas' D will fade in the 4th qtr because there O wont be able to do anything.  Good luck all and CG keep'em coming.
 
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Posted: #280
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

I and others have brough up points that the public loses when 80-100 percent is on  one side in a game.  Examples are found every week and from last week include  90 percent on the colts, and 90 percent on the jets.   So....  Green bay and Oakland cashed in.
 
Think about it like this, if the 80-100 percent public plays cashed in often, why does Vegas keep making a killing year after year?
 
I do not even see the point of arguing this anymore, its a fact that the high public concensus/percentage plays at the 80-100 percent level  lose much more often then they win. 
 
My main theory this year was bet against the high public percentage plays.  Since week 1, I have done very very well doing so.    One last example.. last night  92 percent of the public was on Denver ML.   Game over in the third quarter in favor of Pats.
 
It is stated  the bookie, or Vegas always wins...    And the bookie or vegas would NOT win  if the 80-100 percent plays cashed, but they very seldom do.
 
Bash me if you want, I feel very confident in this area though, that when everyone likes one team, you should simply bet the opposite.   It's the NFL and what makes no sense usually wins you

You my friend are exactly right!!! Ive been using this system for 3 yrs. after my pops talked me into it, and weve won all 3 yrs.... The HARDEST part of this system is to actually stick to it, b/c alot of times I like the same team as the public... It is a hard thing to go against your gut, but after our 1st year winnings, I havent had a problem sticking w/ this system...IT WORKS!!!

 
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Posted: #281
CG, what are your picks for this week? I assume that your bookie is paying your college tuitions
 
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Posted: #282
I am up a good bit  It could change though.
 
Rams +3
 
Oakland +3
 
Browns   maybe?   gotta see what the public percentage is on this game.
 
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Posted: #283
CG, keep up the good works and your academic degree on the house.
 
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Posted: #284
84 percent on Arizona    84 percent on Atlanta     92 percent on Philly.
 
3 common things with these games, public pounding at high levels, and pointspread hasent changed. oh my
 
So for me   St. Louis plus 3      Oakland plus 3     and a possible  play on Seattle plus 7.
 
Lets win that money fellas
 
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Posted: #285

btw

 

that south fla at cincy game, 85 percent of the public was on south fla. 

 
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Posted: #286
lets keep up with this public percentage tiles till sunday.
 
I like the Packers this weekend a lot fellas.
 
A possible outright upset, forget the spread. They will cover the line. Mark it down.
 
 
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Posted: #287
Round and round we go, where it stops nobody knows !!!!!!
 
Let's check the facts, not opinions or perceptions, just facts !!
 
Season to date, on sportsbook.com, I have the print out of every weeks games.
 
80% or better -- 15-14 ATS   Yes sir billybob the public has  winning recorde to date inj games 80% or better.
 
KEEP UP ALL THE OPINIONS, I STICK TO THE FACTS !!!!
 
GOOD DAY FOLKS !!!!!
 
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Posted: #288
well i wonder what everyone that supports the 80% or better theory has to say about that
 
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Posted: #289
interesting....like the 3 picks
 
Prospect
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Posted: #290
more consensus notes
NBA-SA SPURS(77.24%) AT PORTLAND(22.76%) +2 PORTLAND WINS
NHL-VANCOUVER(28% AT ANAHEIM(72%)-VANCOUVER WINS
These are all facts from last night
today:NCAAFB-TEMPLE(21.85%) AT NAVY(78.15%)-7
               ARKANSAS ST.(25.99) AT ALABAMA(74.01%)-23.5
               WISCONSIN(28.90%) AT MICHIGAN ST(71.10%)-5.5
Lets see how things play out
In the NFL the public is pounding PHILLY-7  and DENVER -3
 
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Posted: #291
Quote Originally Posted by clamchowder89:

CG, keep up the good works and your academic degree on the house.

please!!!

collegegambler 

please.....

 
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Posted: #292
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Round and round we go, where it stops nobody knows !!!!!!
 
Let's check the facts, not opinions or perceptions, just facts !!
 
Season to date, on sportsbook.com, I have the print out of every weeks games.
 
80% or better -- 15-14 ATS   Yes sir billybob the public has  winning recorde to date inj games 80% or better.
 
KEEP UP ALL THE OPINIONS, I STICK TO THE FACTS !!!!
 
GOOD DAY FOLKS !!!!!


Couldn't have said it better myself.

Now if only someone would make a thread about betting with the public?
 
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Posted: #293
Hey college I agree with your strategy.  I know you said you don't like nba but last night on wagerline spurs were -1.5 at portland. Spurs were over 70% consensus on wagerline The spurs had beaten portland the last 10 games played h2h. So the line should have probably been higher.  I took portland because of this and they won straight up.    I was wondering where you got your % besides wagerline.  Thanks man and good luck this weekend
 
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Posted: #294
pontiacv8hp thanks
 
 
The 80 percent theory works.
 
I have said this now 100 times. There are prob 5 games where large public is on a side each week.  I play  2 games a weekend out of the 5.  I take other factors into account besides just the large public side.
 
 
 
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Posted: #295
college gambler it all makes sense go where the public isn't going YOU WILL WIN MONEY  NFL SUNDAY
Stlouis+3
Oakland +3          Take em
 
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Posted: #296
college.... why is seattle a possible play??  last time i checked 92% was on philly.....
 
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Posted: #297
exactly why seattle is the play.  92 percent is on philly, it's everyones play of the year etc.  So its a Seatte play for me.   They are pathetic  so for not to much money, but is def worth the action.  92 percent is an incredible percentage and falls right into my theory.  Maybe I will play the Seahawks large, a lot depends on how the  St. louie and oakland bets turn out.         
 
My final card with money amounts will be posted by tommorow morning.
 
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Posted: #298
 
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Posted: #299
Public Percentages on sportsbook as of 12 noon eastern NFL sunday.
 
Minessota - 60 percent   no play
 
Jacksonville  70 percent   no play
 
Tampa Bay  67 percent no play
 
Cleveland   78 percent no play
 
Bills   63 percent no play
 
Arizona  77 percent    play St. Louis plus 3
 
Bears  61 percent  no play 
 
Packers 51 percent  no play
 
Denver 78 percent   play on Miami  plus 4.5  
 
Atlanta  69 percent   play on Oakland  plus 3
 
Giants  66 percent  no play
 
Eagles  82 percent   play on Seattle  plus 6.5
 
 
So counting all the percentages, once again I do not play many games.  
 
Final card.
 
St. Louis plus 3  
 
Oakland plus 3   
 
Miami plus 4.5  
 
Seattle plus 6.5 
 
 
Good luck to all, lets enjoy the best day of the week  NFL SUNDAY
 
 
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Posted: #300
looks good college.  Thanks and good luck
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