I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com.
I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u. Then I go to covers consensus. I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move.
I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..
IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick. --For example-- Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5. I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts. I will do the pick in this case. !!But Remember!! It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good. A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line. -->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in. That's why I have that exception.
I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive. It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio. But more research is necessary..
I'm kinda doing the same thing. I think one important thing is to figure out whether the line movement is to balance the public or it's because of sharps' expectation. One different I found is that in NBA playoffs there are significant line movements (a whole point like from 178 to 177) 5~15 minutes before games, but I couldn't find them in baseball. These "game time" line movements have been extremely accurate so far.
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Quote Originally Posted by circa_clown:
I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com.
I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u. Then I go to covers consensus. I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move.
I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..
IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick. --For example-- Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5. I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts. I will do the pick in this case. !!But Remember!! It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good. A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line. -->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in. That's why I have that exception.
I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive. It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio. But more research is necessary..
I'm kinda doing the same thing. I think one important thing is to figure out whether the line movement is to balance the public or it's because of sharps' expectation. One different I found is that in NBA playoffs there are significant line movements (a whole point like from 178 to 177) 5~15 minutes before games, but I couldn't find them in baseball. These "game time" line movements have been extremely accurate so far.
Man with the under tracking first 42 minutes of the game I'd say it was the right pick but that 3rd quarter was nuts and now the total is suspect. Wouldn't surprise me if it tips over. I think we all knew this game was tough and a no-play but I grabbed the last second line moves. Still working on that part.
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Man with the under tracking first 42 minutes of the game I'd say it was the right pick but that 3rd quarter was nuts and now the total is suspect. Wouldn't surprise me if it tips over. I think we all knew this game was tough and a no-play but I grabbed the last second line moves. Still working on that part.
That was nuts. 1-0-1 wagers and 1-1 posted system plays. We were on the right sides though and both picks hit according to opening lines.
This makes me think back to when the dude said the only flaw in my system is taking a shitty price on every pick, and I said that's the price of being on the sharp side every time.
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That was nuts. 1-0-1 wagers and 1-1 posted system plays. We were on the right sides though and both picks hit according to opening lines.
This makes me think back to when the dude said the only flaw in my system is taking a shitty price on every pick, and I said that's the price of being on the sharp side every time.
Guys one thing we never discussed before is analyzing the system plays' pformance vs opening lines. Against the opens were 2-0 tonight even at -2.5. Mem and under were both the right sides to be on. Anyone who took clips +2.5 got lucky as shit right there.
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Guys one thing we never discussed before is analyzing the system plays' pformance vs opening lines. Against the opens were 2-0 tonight even at -2.5. Mem and under were both the right sides to be on. Anyone who took clips +2.5 got lucky as shit right there.
I'm already thinking about potentially teasing some sharp plays next year. I actually did that a few times earlier in season and did really well with them. Think about it they already hit a real high percentage and when they lose they often barely lose. I'd think the teasers would hit really high %
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I'm already thinking about potentially teasing some sharp plays next year. I actually did that a few times earlier in season and did really well with them. Think about it they already hit a real high percentage and when they lose they often barely lose. I'd think the teasers would hit really high %
The best bet was Memphis Moneyline those both teams are really competitive. But as rule 3. You have to follow your guts and my guts was on moneyline or buying two points which will be -150 and the moneyline was -140 which was better.
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The best bet was Memphis Moneyline those both teams are really competitive. But as rule 3. You have to follow your guts and my guts was on moneyline or buying two points which will be -150 and the moneyline was -140 which was better.
Well can't have my cake and eat it too. I was liking Memphis all day (all series really) but wasn't willing to post them as system plays until they went to -2.5. Same with the total, which was equally close.
System 2.0 record
4-1 YTD
1-1 today
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Well can't have my cake and eat it too. I was liking Memphis all day (all series really) but wasn't willing to post them as system plays until they went to -2.5. Same with the total, which was equally close.
I know this doesn't matter per se but I was thinking about that buster again that made the comment about me taking plays at shitty prices.
If we looked at the system's performance vs opening lines in regulation. I already know the % would be retarded. Compare that to that buster's record vs opening lines in regulation.
Guys we're on the right track here. Sometimes you will take a 3 pt move and lose by 1/2 a point. Does that mean you shoulda acted sooner? NO. You can't have both. Either pick your picks or follow the sharps. I guarantee you you'll do better following the sharps.
I take way more unders than overs, and sometimes those unders lose cuz of last minute dumb shit, OT, and/or because of a worse price after a line move. That all sounds bad until you see you're still hitting over 60%.
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I know this doesn't matter per se but I was thinking about that buster again that made the comment about me taking plays at shitty prices.
If we looked at the system's performance vs opening lines in regulation. I already know the % would be retarded. Compare that to that buster's record vs opening lines in regulation.
Guys we're on the right track here. Sometimes you will take a 3 pt move and lose by 1/2 a point. Does that mean you shoulda acted sooner? NO. You can't have both. Either pick your picks or follow the sharps. I guarantee you you'll do better following the sharps.
I take way more unders than overs, and sometimes those unders lose cuz of last minute dumb shit, OT, and/or because of a worse price after a line move. That all sounds bad until you see you're still hitting over 60%.
The best bet was Memphis Moneyline those both teams are really competitive. But as rule 3. You have to follow your guts and my guts was on moneyline or buying two points which will be -150 and the moneyline was -140 which was better.
I may be wrong but if you aren't confident in a -2 or -2.5 team to cover you shouldn't be betting them period. I'm not gonna pay 50% juice for 1 bucket in a basketball game. Just my opinion.
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Quote Originally Posted by Guaji:
The best bet was Memphis Moneyline those both teams are really competitive. But as rule 3. You have to follow your guts and my guts was on moneyline or buying two points which will be -150 and the moneyline was -140 which was better.
I may be wrong but if you aren't confident in a -2 or -2.5 team to cover you shouldn't be betting them period. I'm not gonna pay 50% juice for 1 bucket in a basketball game. Just my opinion.
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