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Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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Prospect
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Posted: #926
where can i see the guidelines to your 2.0 play?
 
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Posted: #927
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:


Yeah you're totally right man I agree. Not validating it for the B's. I wish they didn't even get to see it. Is guys like you I'm talking to. No validating it to you either, just trying to keep track myself. This is a learning process for me too and I'm trying to decide what to add and what to keep simple. 

I think the original rules work fine all by themselves but it obviously needed a little something after we no-played all those winners on the 8th, and I think the grading system is important. Getting there though. 

Money & Bankroll Management is a beast to perfect.  You're a poker player, you know the fundamentals.  Easy to understand and comprehend, but a bitch to apply.  When you're running good, it's easy to follow the rules, but once you start running bad... it's TILT and bad decisions that gets you.  That's why your rule of thumb, "Don't do anything stupid" is so important.

Honestly, I think 2nd half wagers are a gamble.  Eventually we are in the mercy of the books hands, and we have no edge.  Besides the 5 minutes of line movements at halftime, what information do we really have besides what we and the Busters observe on TV?  Unless there's a site that I'm not aware of... that provides information on what the "public" is betting at halftime, I think it's a tough bet.

Grading system is going to require a lot of work.  If you're good at poker bankroll management, you should be successful with this in the long run.
 
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Posted: #928
I hope you achieve your goal and be successful when you move to Vegas.  I'll be rooting for you.  For me, I still feel burnt out from FTP... and I'll never go back live again (unless it's a tourney).  It's too time consuming... and I feel like sports is more profitable and more enjoyable.  The bad beats/moose is more tolerable in sports.  However, the busters or donkey's in poker are much nicer.
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Memphis opens at 7.  Public is pounding LAC and the points at an alarming 60%.  The line is now 8... no wait, some books now have it at 8.5.  Pretty obvious where the sharp money is at.  This maybe one of those games where I put in the wager, not watch the game, and just look at the final score.
 
Captain
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Posted: #929
Thanks for everything RAZOR 


I've used the system to spot Philly was a smart play yesterday, I bet "Boston won by [1 to 5] pts" at +333 


 
 
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Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 409
Posted: #930
Give me something Czech, gametime is close.  Some analysis on the games would be nice.  Like I said Im likeing both dogs, Im thinking we are going to see 2 close games tom.    Preferably system 101.  Gl to all
 
Captain
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Posted: #931
So you want to make 100k on your system? Bro you need better discipline and bet only what qualifies as a system play. You are betting personal bets and ignoring the system, how will you hit 100k if your not buying what you preach?

I'm not hating, just observing.. I read up to page 28 or so on this whole thread. Also, looks like you should of got the kinks out before implementing this to the public, lots of confusion and then you add another system on top of the original.

Keep it simple and revise it and make a new thread.
 
Captain
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Posted: #932
Quote Originally Posted by Ezmoney123:

Give me something Czech, gametime is close.  Some analysis on the games would be nice.  Like I said Im likeing both dogs, Im thinking we are going to see 2 close games tom.    Preferably system 101.  Gl to all

 Clippers Under is dropping while 70% is on the Over 177.5
 Memphis +7.5 went +8 but since then, is paying more money despite 75% on Clips.

 Clippers Under is already a system play if it doesn't go against your lean.
 
 Memphis +8 smells system but need to wait a bit. 

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #933
Thanks for sharing this with us.
Made some nice  on PHI+5.5 and Lakers Under my first time following the system.

LAC Under looks good but I might not have enough time to wait for Memphis -8 as I have to put in my bet in about 2-3 hours
 
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Posted: #934
I think we have another system play for today.

Memphis/Clippers public is on over 63% and the open 178.5 now it went down to 176.5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #935
Yes MEM/CLIPS under so far is a system play. Im thinking of taking a chance and parlaying it with CLIPS +7.5
 
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Posted: #936
I am also leaning on Memphis but why Memphis is a system play?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #937
What are ppl seeing for line movement on Memphis. On your sites did it open at -6.5, go up to -8, and then back down a half to -7.5?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #938
czech im new here just wondering what do u mean by units
 
Prospect
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Posted: #939
Oh ok Czech thanks, think you posted as i was. Anyone else got -6.5 open?

I wont bet but say Memphis covers that spread.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #940
Czech,

Im on the same page as you. Thats the question, do we wait and hope goes back up or grab now in case it goes down more. And then if it goes down is it a 3 to 4 unit play. I don't think 5 like Lakers because it did jump back a half pt already right?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #941
Czech,

I would never blame you. I think it makes since also to do that. I was more trying to spark a discussion to help or come up with system with you. Off the top of my head...1 unit per full pt movement away from the open? Thats my first guess
 
Prospect
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Posted: #942
Quote Originally Posted by Ecr32:

Yes MEM/CLIPS under so far is a system play. Im thinking of taking a chance and parlaying it with CLIPS +7.5

You might wanna rethink that if you're playing system plays. More than 60% of the public is on the Clippers for the side which means the busters are out on the dog. Memphis looks like a marginal system play too as the line has moved a little there too even though it recently jumped back to 7.5 from 8...
 
Captain
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Posted: #943
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Rodlover, Assomugha, 

IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE INFORMATION YOU'RE BEING GIVEN HERE FOR FREE THEN GET THE FUCK OUT OF MY THREAD AND DON'T COME BACK LOSERS


For free? Ohh, that's cool.

This thread would be more fun if you actually requested money for this horrible system, and pathetic on the other hand if you robbed the 12-year olds following your system.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #944
Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:



For free? Ohh, that's cool.

This thread would be more fun if you actually requested money for this horrible system, and pathetic on the other hand if you robbed the 12-year olds following your system.

I'm 38 years old   And I beg to differ about the money request. Why don't you share your picks if this system is so horrible that you feel the need to A) read it and B) comment on it. Your system must be so awesome it's a secret?  Or maybe you're just a jealous buster...
 
Captain
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Posted: #945
I am sharing my picks, but wtf does my picks has to do with you Czech? You obviously have no clue what you are doing.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #946
czech i would ignore this ignorant moron  hes a hater probably losing always and wishing he was as good as u
 
All-Star
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Posted: #947
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:


I'm not sure yet Geno but we have to be on the right track in thinking there has to be some grading system in the future. That was a steam move last night on Lakers and definitely sharps were pounding it.

I'm thinking back to other night after Memphis game, I was talking with you or Guaji or someone and I said I thought they should set the line at 177 but they'd prob open it higher for the busters.

I shoulda looked ahead to this game, since I wish I got the under sooner.  

Imagine you're a sharp living in Vegas and bet $10K+ per game. Under shouda been 4-0 last 4 times these teams played, if not for that OT game. Memphis is at home tonight. 181 was too high for this to open and we should all know that by now.

So the sharps descended and pounded the under and we see this huge move. I coulda anticipated this one though. Is there still value left? We don't know the answer to that question, so on these ones if you're gonna bet max units wait til game time.  If it corrects up a little bet it smaller, if it's still 176.5 at tip off hammer it.  That make sense?

 

its at 176.5 right now on 5dimes

 
Prospect
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Posted: #948
bet365 was down to as low as 176 moments ago. As well looking at the covers.com info only more than 53% of the public are on Indy for the side. The line has moved from 8.5 to 8. Wouldn't this make it a marginal system play?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #949
Quote Originally Posted by Bennytru:

bet365 was down to as low as 176 moments ago. As well looking at the covers.com info only more than 53% of the public are on Indy for the side. The line has moved from 8.5 to 8. Wouldn't this make it a marginal system play?

Never mind.  It would be if the line moved the other way..
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #950
Quote Originally Posted by joshua1014:

czech i would ignore this ignorant moron  hes a hater probably losing always and wishing he was as good as u





Atleast im not betting solely on conspiracy theories lmfao, like Vegas are the ones to play out on the field.

You would probably hit more by playing casino.

Vegas are not the ones to take the shot, vegas are not the ones to make the FT's or anything, so just stfu. You don't win your bet because most of the money has been placed here or there, it's just stupid.

So because you play for a lot of many that makes you "a sharp better" it's all about financial status, i have seen many people only throwing like 100 pr. game, still they have an awesome hit rate, and they dont take all line movement bullshit into consideration which is based on thousand things, not just "what public is betting" lmfao.
My point is, a person throwing 100 usd pr game can be a better capper than some1 throwing 10000 usd pr game. Therefore betting doesnt work like that. And all these sharp betters can be playing the same as the public. Sorry, but this system is awful. There is no easy road to make money. Just gotta do your analysis job better instead of betting on theories, lmfao.


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