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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

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Posted: #2776
Final:
SACRAMENTO Kings -2.5  (-110)  110$
When the projected computerized scores by TeamRanking (103.9-102.1 Kings) and NumberFire (104.8 - 104.6 Kings) are not near the released line by LVSC (-2) and in addition it goes up to -2.5 Kings while the majority of the public money is on Dallas including the ML support - by my experience - it is an invitation to bet Dallas... and lose money. Yesterday I was asked if to play the Rockets in a PM - my answer was it is or Hornets +2.5 or no play. Today we have the same situation almost here and this time I will play what I think is right. If D.Cousins will decide to play and I hope he will, the Kings will have a better shot at getting a buyer or investor to have their long awaited arena built instead of relocating to Seattle. Each time rumors like this fly - the team in question performs great.
 
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Posted: #2777
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:

Sportsinteraction POR +4.5 -110
bet365 - +3 -105
 
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Posted: #2778
Melo, any reason so much confidence on the Pacers by 5 points? Is it because Felton and Melo are out?

Don't know if this helps you guys, but did some research on the Heat. They've played 4 TNT Thursday night games this year:

11/15 @ DEN (Late Game) W - 98-93
11/29 vs SA (Late Game) - W - 105-100
12/06 @ NY (Early Game) L -  92-112
12/20 @ DAL (Late Game) - W 110-95

Note the 3 wins were all West Coast games by a margin greater than 3 and all on the late game on TNT Thursday.

  • Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Portland.


Only thing preventing me from pulling the trigger are:

  • Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Any thoughts on this game? Lebron James looking to make a statement on late night national TV?


 
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Posted: #2779

IIMO, gents.....this doesn't qualify for a "reverse".

5 Deemers just kicked it up to MIA -3.5.......not sure a reverse can change course and still be a reverse.

NO and IND went continually one way.

Bummed out....gotta buy back..........Gl to the crew !!...............

 
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Posted: #2780
PARLAY (8 TEAMS)
01/10/2013 @ 08:00 PM    NBA    
[501] NEW YORK +7-150 (B+2)
01/10/2013 @ 08:00 PM    NBA    
[502] TOTAL u186-150 (B+2)
(NEW YORK vrs INDIANA)
01/10/2013 @ 10:05 PM    NBA    
[504] SACRAMENTO -½-150 (B+2)
01/10/2013 @ 10:05 PM    NBA    
[504] TOTAL u208-150 (B+2)
(DALLAS vrs SACRAMENTO)
01/10/2013 @ 10:35 PM    NBA    
[505] MIAMI -160
01/10/2013 @ 10:35 PM    NBA    
[506] TOTAL u196½-150 (B+2)
(MIAMI vrs PORTLAND)
01/10/2013 @ 05:16 PM        
OPEN PLAY
01/10/2013 @ 05:16 PM        
OPEN PLAY
50.00    3758.20
 
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Posted: #2781
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Final:
SACRAMENTO Kings -2.5  (-110)  110$
When the projected computerized scores by TeamRanking (103.9-102.1 Kings) and NumberFire (104.8 - 104.6 Kings) are not near the released line by LVSC (-2) and in addition it goes up to -2.5 Kings while the majority of the public money is on Dallas including the ML support - by my experience - it is an invitation to bet Dallas... and lose money. Yesterday I was asked if to play the Rockets in a PM - my answer was it is or Hornets +2.5 or no play. Today we have the same situation almost here and this time I will play what I think is right. If D.Cousins will decide to play and I hope he will, the Kings will have a better shot at getting a buyer or investor to have their long awaited arena built instead of relocating to Seattle. Each time rumors like this fly - the team in question performs great.

Oh boy, I remember what happened last time we bet kings. LOL.. but nonetheless, i will be backing you tonight for 2units on kings-2.5.. Lets get this!!

 
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Posted: #2782
Quote Originally Posted by playing4mylife:

Melo, any reason so much confidence on the Pacers by 5 points? Is it because Felton and Melo are out?

Don't know if this helps you guys, but did some research on the Heat. They've played 4 TNT Thursday night games this year:

11/15 @ DEN (Late Game) W - 98-93
11/29 vs SA (Late Game) - W - 105-100
12/06 @ NY (Early Game) L -  92-112
12/20 @ DAL (Late Game) - W 110-95

Note the 3 wins were all West Coast games by a margin greater than 3 and all on the late game on TNT Thursday.

  • Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Portland.


Only thing preventing me from pulling the trigger are:

  • Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Any thoughts on this game? Lebron James looking to make a statement on late night national TV?



I was thinking along those same lines of the game being on TNT

however I took the ML not the spread since buying it down would bring it to -150 and the ML is -160
 
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Posted: #2783
Quote Originally Posted by playing4mylife:

Melo, any reason so much confidence on the Pacers by 5 points? Is it because Felton and Melo are out?

Don't know if this helps you guys, but did some research on the Heat. They've played 4 TNT Thursday night games this year:

11/15 @ DEN (Late Game) W - 98-93
11/29 vs SA (Late Game) - W - 105-100
12/06 @ NY (Early Game) L -  92-112
12/20 @ DAL (Late Game) - W 110-95

Note the 3 wins were all West Coast games by a margin greater than 3 and all on the late game on TNT Thursday.

  • Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Portland.


Only thing preventing me from pulling the trigger are:

  • Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Any thoughts on this game? Lebron James looking to make a statement on late night national TV?


SA was at home and those happened during 14-3 stretch. Now Miami are 3-4. I am not saying that is the reason they will lose - but for sure that is not an argument because of which they will win IF. That data is as good as reading Nostradamus. While reading it we don't understand nothing, but after things happen - we say - wow, he wrote in verse  6
 
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Posted: #2784
what is suspicious though is although I'm sure the public is slamming Miami 60/40 or 65/35, the line has not moved since opening at 3. I see its 3.5 some places, but still 3 on my book.
 
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Posted: #2785
Thursday\s are never easy. Nothing is. Having the Knicks without two starters is tough and Indian is one of a hell defensive team. The Knicks will not have an easy life. They also did not lose to no one of the cellar teams to have a debt to collect. But how about losing at home to the Celtics without Rondo and helping the books to grab the money? So why not win tonight in Indiana. Just a thought
 
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Posted: #2786

Quote Originally Posted by playing4mylife:

what is suspicious though is although I'm sure the public is slamming Miami 60/40 or 65/35, the line has not moved since opening at 3. I see its 3.5 some places, but still 3 on my book.

Got me handcuffed too, playing.

Mav (got it right), could you chip in on the reverse theory.

If a reverse movement changes direction, does that cancel its catergorization as a reverse.

With NO and IND no counter movement occurred.

 

 
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Posted: #2787
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

bet365 - +3 -105

 

just gone to +3.5 again, Bet365

 
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Posted: #2788

Good day all, hope everyone is well! Had a good night last night 2-0 on my posted plays.

I'm locked in on PORTLAND +3.5: miami is 5-9 against the spread on the road and 0-5 against above .500 teams on the road, while on the other hand portland is 8-7-1 against the spread at home and 5-2 against above .500 teams at home.Plus the reverse line movement.

I'm also locked in on the PACERS -5: line has moved between 4.5 and 5 all day and from what I have found the public is on the knicks around 56%, so similar to yesterday with bucs and bulls, vegas seems to like the line where it is.Knicks are 7-9-1 against the spread on the road and 3-5 on road against over .500 teams.While Pacers are 10-6 at home against the spread and 6-1 against above .500 teams at home.

I'm also leaning on the under in sacramento for the same reasons as Legend00, who has a good write up.

Have a great night everyone!BOL

 

 

 
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Posted: #2789
I treat most of the sports handicapping questions as I treat the options. Long term or short term. In options trading expiry date is a very important factor that in order to have a good feel of it you have to look at the similar behavior of the stock/commodity/currency vs currency etc in a similar span of time with similar environmental and geopolitical events. Once you combine the strategy with a spot play - your chances depend on your being disciplined and precise in choice of expiry time when deciding to put or call. I see the same thing on Thursdays games. I don't remember when two of the public favorites won out of 3 games played on Thursdays. You're welcome to research and correct me
 
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Posted: #2790

Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

I treat most of the sports handicapping questions as I treat the options. Long term or short term. In options trading expiry date is a very important factor that in order to have a good feel of it you have to look at the similar behavior of the stock/commodity/currency vs currency etc in a similar span of time with similar environmental and geopolitical events. Once you combine the strategy with a spot play - your chances depend on your being disciplined and precise in choice of expiry time when deciding to put or call. I see the same thing on Thursdays games. I don't remember when two of the public favorites won out of 3 games played on Thursdays. You're welcome to research and correct me

Mavin,

Based on this we might as well make the Knicks a play and should get 2 out of 3.  I know this is a simple assessment, just thought I'd throw it out there.

 
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Posted: #2791
BOL Mavin, keep up the gd work 
 
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Posted: #2792
melos,just from a basketball standpoint wat recommends you to like the pacers by spread??i was just thinking massive value is on knicks given wat theyve already done in spots this year wen playing short-handed,and on the road as well.(we all remember that road beatdown of miami rite??)add to the fact that its a screwball thursday with not many games and people desperate to get action on any game possible and also that indiana is no offensive juggernaut so giving 5 is a struggle for them at the best of times(tho,2 b fair their defense can make up 4 it)...also i think they won 7 in a row at home rite??well dats gotta end soon by my estimation.
cheers 4 your reply,melosjumper.....great 2 hear other points of view and reasoning
 
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Posted: #2793
Quote Originally Posted by glenndef62:

Got me handcuffed too, playing.

Mav (got it right), could you chip in on the reverse theory.

If a reverse movement changes direction, does that cancel its catergorization as a reverse.

With NO and IND no counter movement occurred.

 

I already explained earlier on the thread, but who wants to get a house call from Soprano and Leotardo at once? So here it is:
The lines and odds by SportsMavin - Part 1
Who sets the initial lines that are being released by the books?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants or LVSC are responsible for uniting under one roof all the activities prior to the lines and the odds being released on 95% of sporting events worldwide. Those are expert odds makers that actually set the lines as they figure the games are gonna end. Spread and Totals. 
The next stage is passing those lines and odds to their clients - the books. At the books they doctor the lines and the odds according to what their perception of public sentiment or other factors and released the doctored lines to the public. Each book with their own agenda. Those lines released are the second stage in the lines life and the first ones we - the public see. There are some sites that are also a clients of LVSC and when we see - opening line  - that refers to the opening line passed upon to the books by LVSC.
Important to note that LVSC is responsible for up to the minute injury and weather conditions updates for it's clients as well.
Once the lines are released - two groups of professional bettors address them at first as they are ambushing those releases and immediately take action. So called wise guys who are kind of organized sharps who have an agenda of middling the lines they think are very sharply handicapped and causing the line moves by their organized effort only to take the opposite action before the game if their line moves succeeded. That way they target the middle of the lines and by risking a juice aim at getting the result from both sides. The other group is not organized together and are called sharps - people who consider themselves experts and think that some lines are not handicapped to what they think it should be and trying to take an advantage of the line.
The lines and odds by SportsMavin - Part 2

So, after the line and odds have been released by LVSC, doctored by the Books, changed by the wagers placed by the Wise Guys and the Sharps - the general public gets it's turn. The general public bets first wave is influenced by all kinds of so called "experts" who either sell their picks or generally sell but sometimes released them for free. Touts if you will. They usually release their picks early and their clients - some big and some small - all take a shot. The line changes again or does not change - depending on the volume of the bets. And at this stage - the books are applying reevaluation tools while the traders from most books cooperate on an effort to balance the bets using the tools at their disposal. Why balance the bets? The easiest way for the books to make earnings is through the Juice. If it was up to them - they would never tamper with any lines or odds as long as all the bets would be balanced evenly and the juice and the public losses on parlays and live betting(yes, parlays are a great income source for the books as are the live betting consoles) would be only source for their gain. But, the bets not always are balanced because they can't catch up to the money wagered with releasing appropriate lines/odds and are forced to artificially change the lines and odds in that case. It does not happen very often and only reducing a risk factor for them and is called Reverse Line Movement initiated by the books. The other kind of "RLM" is only a virtual RLM and is seen by us when most public bets are on one side while the line moves the other way because some fat money bets being placed. So, two occasions when the "public is on one side"(actually most bets, but not most of the money) and the line moves opposite - "kosher RLM", and "Non Kosher RLM" when the fat money as well as the majority of the bets are on one side and the line moves to another as a result of books initiated RLM to make us think where the game is going to. 
Must be noted that among the tools the books use to manipulate public into betting on a certain side they're sure they'll have a hard time to balance the bets for are Media, Touts in their service.
So, when we say we are rolling with the book, we have to know which way the book is really rolling. 
To be continued...
 
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Posted: #2794
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:

Mav, took POR +3.5 last night when you did

( been following for a while now)

my book has it at +4.5 now

question: should I put another unit on +4.5, play ML, or leave it as is?

thanx for the thread, pleaser keep up all the hard work!!



CP74, I am in the exact same position as you.  I am with SIA and I have Portland +3.5.  As much as I would LOVE that extra point and be on +4.5 I am not changing by bet at all.  Here's why:

The only possible outcome it would make any difference is if Portland loses by EXACTLY 4 points.  That could happen, but I don't feel the chances of that happening are high enough to justify increasing my bet.  If I felt that strongly I would have just bet more on the Blazers to begin with. 

I totally understand how frustrating it is when the line moves in your favor AFTER your bet is in, and I know how tempting it can be to chase that extra point, but I'm just going to sit back with my 3.5 points and enjoy the show.  But that's just me. 

Go Blazers
 
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Posted: #2795
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:

Good day all, hope everyone is well! Had a good night last night 2-0 on my posted plays.

I'm locked in on PORTLAND +3.5: miami is 5-9 against the spread on the road and 0-5 against above .500 teams on the road, while on the other hand portland is 8-7-1 against the spread at home and 5-2 against above .500 teams at home.Plus the reverse line movement.

I'm also locked in on the PACERS -5: line has moved between 4.5 and 5 all day and from what I have found the public is on the knicks around 56%, so similar to yesterday with bucs and bulls, vegas seems to like the line where it is.Knicks are 7-9-1 against the spread on the road and 3-5 on road against over .500 teams.While Pacers are 10-6 at home against the spread and 6-1 against above .500 teams at home.

I'm also leaning on the under in sacramento for the same reasons as Legend00, who has a good write up.

Have a great night everyone!BOL

 

 

Looking at 4 sites I rely on - every 3.5 bets out of 5 are on the pacers to cover
 
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Posted: #2796
i think one thing that is always somewhat hard to gage in your mind at certain times, is when an uptempo team plays a very defensive team.  For instance when uptempo teams play (indiana, memphis, chicago)....which way is the game going to go?>??....uptempo or defensive??...If you really watch the scores of Chicago, Memphis and Indiana...it fluctuates a lot when they play uptempo teams, which way it is going to go....
 
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Posted: #2797
gauge**....
 
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Posted: #2798
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

I already explained earlier on the thread, but who wants to get a house call from Soprano and Leotardo at once? So here it is:
The lines and odds by SportsMavin - Part 1
Who sets the initial lines that are being released by the books?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants or LVSC are responsible for uniting under one roof all the activities prior to the lines and the odds being released on 95% of sporting events worldwide. Those are expert odds makers that actually set the lines as they figure the games are gonna end. Spread and Totals. 
The next stage is passing those lines and odds to their clients - the books. At the books they doctor the lines and the odds according to what their perception of public sentiment or other factors and released the doctored lines to the public. Each book with their own agenda. Those lines released are the second stage in the lines life and the first ones we - the public see. There are some sites that are also a clients of LVSC and when we see - opening line  - that refers to the opening line passed upon to the books by LVSC.
Important to note that LVSC is responsible for up to the minute injury and weather conditions updates for it's clients as well.
Once the lines are released - two groups of professional bettors address them at first as they are ambushing those releases and immediately take action. So called wise guys who are kind of organized sharps who have an agenda of middling the lines they think are very sharply handicapped and causing the line moves by their organized effort only to take the opposite action before the game if their line moves succeeded. That way they target the middle of the lines and by risking a juice aim at getting the result from both sides. The other group is not organized together and are called sharps - people who consider themselves experts and think that some lines are not handicapped to what they think it should be and trying to take an advantage of the line.
The lines and odds by SportsMavin - Part 2

So, after the line and odds have been released by LVSC, doctored by the Books, changed by the wagers placed by the Wise Guys and the Sharps - the general public gets it's turn. The general public bets first wave is influenced by all kinds of so called "experts" who either sell their picks or generally sell but sometimes released them for free. Touts if you will. They usually release their picks early and their clients - some big and some small - all take a shot. The line changes again or does not change - depending on the volume of the bets. And at this stage - the books are applying reevaluation tools while the traders from most books cooperate on an effort to balance the bets using the tools at their disposal. Why balance the bets? The easiest way for the books to make earnings is through the Juice. If it was up to them - they would never tamper with any lines or odds as long as all the bets would be balanced evenly and the juice and the public losses on parlays and live betting(yes, parlays are a great income source for the books as are the live betting consoles) would be only source for their gain. But, the bets not always are balanced because they can't catch up to the money wagered with releasing appropriate lines/odds and are forced to artificially change the lines and odds in that case. It does not happen very often and only reducing a risk factor for them and is called Reverse Line Movement initiated by the books. The other kind of "RLM" is only a virtual RLM and is seen by us when most public bets are on one side while the line moves the other way because some fat money bets being placed. So, two occasions when the "public is on one side"(actually most bets, but not most of the money) and the line moves opposite - "kosher RLM", and "Non Kosher RLM" when the fat money as well as the majority of the bets are on one side and the line moves to another as a result of books initiated RLM to make us think where the game is going to. 
Must be noted that among the tools the books use to manipulate public into betting on a certain side they're sure they'll have a hard time to balance the bets for are Media, Touts in their service.
So, when we say we are rolling with the book, we have to know which way the book is really rolling. 
To be continued...

Thank, Mav !!................Stop by Satriale's any time!.........

 
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Posted: #2799
However if I was stuck between who to play with Indiana or NY...I would take the under....

My opinion is I'm taking 
Indiana-5
Indiana/knicks under
portland+3
sacramento-2


Indiana-1/2 + portland+7 and a half is a good bet as well
 
 
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Posted: #2800
Always have a faith in your bet. Once you took it stop worrying about it. It is only one bet among many you will take. I never panic if I lose two or three bets in a row. Really. I also do not celebrate if I win two or three in a row. This is a Marathon!
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