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NHL Home Chase

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Posted: #376
Understand it now. Caveman status.
 
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Posted: #377
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:



spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tU1bm-tnxs54EnGibSt7yrQ&output=html


My head about exploded trying to explain this money management aspect using labourchere and martingale.
Martingale is so much easier for me.

oct09_A_buf_ml_-135_lost_6-3
5-5-5-5 (13.50 to win 10)
martingale 13.50 to win 10

oct11_B-buf_ml or pl if dog
5-5-5-5-13.50 (##.## to win 18.50)
martingale ##.## to win 23.50


oct09_A_nyr_pl_-260_won_6-3
5-5-5-5 (26 to win 10)
5-5 now moves to lak or chi (if pl)
martingale won 10

Option 2.1
oct11_A_chi_pl_buf has 3 more home games. No play if chi is favored, chase will be over.


oct09_A_was_ml_-155_won_7-2
5-5-5-5 (15.5 to win 10)
5-5 moves to cgy
martingale won 10

oct09_A_njd_pl_-220_lost_7-2
5-5-5-5 (22 to win 10)
martingale 22 to win10

oct11_B_ott_pl_
5-5-5-5-22 (##.## to win 27)
martingale ##.## to win 32


oct10_A_cgy_ml_-115
5-5 (11.5 to win 10)
martingale 11.5 to win 10

oct10_A_lak_pl_-300
5-5 (30 to win 10)
martingale 30 to win 10
 
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Posted: #378
Trying to understand this....will read through from post one to get what its all about...bol smitler..keep posting labby and martingale those got my attention..
 
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Posted: #379
I'll do what I can to try to help explain labby (Labouchere).  

if your starting line is 

5-5-5-5

you add the first and last numbers together to get your wager amount.... x to win 10, or 10 to win y.

if you win, then your line becomes

x-5-5-x

if you lose, and your original wager was 14.50 to win 10 (ie -145), then your line becomes 

5-5-5-5-14.5

so your next bet amount is 19.50 instead of 10.  But, if you wanted to keep the bet sizes smaller, you could take the 14.50 and divide in 2, like so:

5-5-5-5-7.25-7.25, giving a next bet amount of 12.25

OR you could divide it in 4 and spread it across the original line, like zo:

8.75-8.75-8.75-8.75, giving you a next bet amount of 17.50.

It's all a matter of bankroll and comfort level.

If you've won two wagers, then your line "clears" and becomes 

x-x-x-x

and it's time to start with a new line, which could be 5-5-5-5 or something larger again depending upon, again, bankroll and comfort level.  Keeping your amounts small until you understand the method is key.  Your bet sizes rise and fall as you lose or win, and your base bet unit size slowly grows over time.  So in the end it's riskier than flat betting but not as short term damaging as martingale chasing.

Hope this helps.
 
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Posted: #380
One thing implicit in Labouchere wagering is that if you either have a string of losses, or a 50% (or less streak) is that the lines can become long and take a long time to clear.  This implies that you desire to make up for your loss on one series as part of your wagering on the next series.  Whereas with martingale chasing, if you lose the series, you simply start over. 

Also, one thing I'm thinking about here is the desirability of maintaining one line per team.   I can think of both pluses and minuses for so doing.  Let me background process on this a little more... 
 
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Posted: #381
Trying to figure out how to put the labby lines on the spreadsheet so I won't have to keep re-posting.
Apologies if you don't understand it. I'm not sure I do either.
I don't like to spend this much time on this rigid of a money management style.

Since there are really 4 separate systems being played at once there has to be 4 different lines.
Each of these systems will start with 4 lines.
Scroll down to the bottom of the spreadsheet to see the lines.

Tonight's labby plays are:

Option 1.0
buf ml to win $18.50 (5+13.5) On the spreadsheet its line 1.0-1
phi ml to win $10 (5+5) On the spreadsheet its line 1.0-3

Option 2.0
ott pl to win $27 (5+22) On the spreadsheet its line 2.0-2
col pl to win $10 (5+5) On the spreadsheet its line 2.0-3
 
Option 1.1 No Plays

Option 2.1
chi pl to win $10 (5+5) On the spreadsheet its line 2.1-1
 
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Posted: #382
Option 1.0
oct_11_B_buf ml to win $18.50 (5+13.5) On the spreadsheet its line 1.0-1
oct13_C-buf_to win $34.40
oct11_A_phi ml to win $10 (5+5) On the spreadsheet its line 1.0-3

Option 2.0
oct11_B_ott pl to win $27 (5+22) On the spreadsheet its line 2.0-2
oct11_A_col pl to win $10 (5+5) On the spreadsheet its line 2.0-3
oct13_B-tam pl to win $22

 
Option 1.1
oct14_A_phi_ml to win $10

Option 2.1
chi pl to win $10 (5+5) On the spreadsheet its line 2.1-1

Bear with me until I get an easier format figured out.
Google docs suck. I need to transfer data and upload an excel doc.
 
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Posted: #383
If you cant figure out the excel thing just go to mrexcel.com and post a question there, you will get an answer to your question in no time...bol..
 
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Posted: #384
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:



spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tU1bm-tnxs54EnGibSt7yrQ&output=html


Updates and Plays
  • I won't update unit totals until all chases are complete for each option (waiting on Sabres to get a win).
  • Instead of using $ I'm switching to units ($10 = 1.0 unit).
  • It may take a few days to get switched over to an excel or an open office spreadsheet. Then I will have more formatting options to hopefully make things easier to read.
oct10_A_cgy_ml_-115
Line 1.0-2:  5-5 (1.15 to win 1.0)
martingale 1.15 to win 1.0

oct10_A_lak_pl_-300
Line 2.0-1:  5-5 (3.0 to win 1.0)
martingale 3.0 to win 1.0

oct14_B_fla pl at cgy
Line 2.0-1:  5-5-30 (#.# to win 3.5)
martingale to win 4.0

oct12_A_lak_ml_-190
Line 1.0-3:  1.9 to win 1.0
mart: 1.9 to win 1.0

oct12_A_atl_pl_-180
Line 2.0-2:  1.8 to win 1.0
mart: 1.8 to win 1.0
 
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Posted: #385
Smitler, I spent some time looking at your spreadsheet earlier today and think you've come up with a very interesting way of applying Labouchere on a per system per series basis.  

While I'm no fan of planning to fail, I am interested to know what your thoughts were on handling a line after a series failure... ie if Buffalo loses tomorrow, do you walk away and reset to 5-5-5-5 or do you think you want to carry the losses forward some how in order to recover them?

Thanks again for publishing the spreadsheet.  In spite of the constraints, you have a knack for presenting and capturing the information which doesn't come easily to me.
 
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Posted: #386
bC I'm doing this labby thing on the fly. Just trying to learn it so it comes second nature as martingale does.
I'm personally doing martingale with these systems.

If Buffalo loses I will have to either create a new line with the lost units or add them to the current lines.  Will wait until the outcome to figure it out.

The spreadsheet seems pretty straight forward to me, but maybe not for others.
The money management aspect is by far the hardest and most time consuming part of posting.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #387
Lab is the way to go here man, your going to be missing out!
 
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Posted: #388
Two Option 1.0 (HML/PL) plays tonight:

oct13_C_buf_ml_-145_
Line_1.0-1_4.98_to_get_3.44
mart_7.82_to_get_5.39

oct13_A_ana_pl_-255_
Line_1.0-4_2.55_to_get_1.00
 
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Posted: #389

If you lose the C bet, don't create a 4th line.  Simply add 1/2 your losses to the end of line C, and the other half to the end of line A

Creating a line D will essentially force you to eventually make a D bet.  I don't think that's wise.

Speard the C losses into line A and C, and start fresh with the next series.  That way, you'll eventually win all the losses back, plus profit

I'm road chasing with a labby, so I'm familiar with the system ( I actually find it rather easy).  Just trying to help

 
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Posted: #390
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

If you lose the C bet, don't create a 4th line.  Simply add 1/2 your losses to the end of line C, and the other half to the end of line A

Creating a line D will essentially force you to eventually make a D bet.  I don't think that's wise.

Speard the C losses into line A and C, and start fresh with the next series.  That way, you'll eventually win all the losses back, plus profit

I'm road chasing with a labby, so I'm familiar with the system ( I actually find it rather easy).  Just trying to help



 
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Posted: #391
oct13_C_buf_ml_-145_
Line_1.0-1_4.98_to_get_3.44
mart_7.82_to_get_5.39

oct13_A_ana_pl_-255_
Line_1.0-4_2.55_to_get_1.00
 
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Posted: #392
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

If you lose the C bet, don't create a 4th line.  Simply add 1/2 your losses to the end of line C, and the other half to the end of line A

Creating a line D will essentially force you to eventually make a D bet.  I don't think that's wise.

Speard the C losses into line A and C, and start fresh with the next series.  That way, you'll eventually win all the losses back, plus profit

I'm road chasing with a labby, so I'm familiar with the system ( I actually find it rather easy).  Just trying to help



Since Buffalo lost and there are 2 new series starting tomorrow shouldn't I create another line to accommodate the 2 A games and wait to spread the losses on Buffalo based on the outcome of their last home game on the 15th?

My thinking is to ride out the chase and if it loses then spread out the loss to other lines.
I don't think its wise to start a new chase with higher amounts but maybe that's how labby is played.

I'm clueless. take a look at my lines on the spreadsheet for Option 1.0 and give me some advice.
 
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Posted: #393

I backtracked last years stats with my current Road Chase for the NHL, and there were roughly 150 total betting series.  Of those, the (A) bet won 98 times.  That's close to 2/3 of the wins coming from the very first bet alone.  It's safe to say that you're (A) bet will win most of the time. 

Can you do what you're suggesting?  Sure, why not? It's really up to your descretion since it's your system, your money, and really your choice. But if it were me, I'd spread 1/2 the losses of the C bet on line C, and the other half on line A.

This system, as well as my road chase system, has a high percentage of wins.  You shouldn't encounter very many losses.  That's the reason why the Labourchere is so successful.  The guys from Platinum Sports Investing are ridiculously smart, and I'm hesitant to stray from their suggestions regarding the Labby line (and they suggest splitting the C losses on the A/C lines)

 

 
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Posted: #394
One of the confusing things about Labouchere is that how it is used had changed over time, plus there is no hard and fast ruleset about how to use it, altho as smdio points out the Platinum Sports Investing guys have its application pretty well sorted.

One fundamental rule of use is that once you clear a line (like lines 1.0-2 or 1.0-3) you can choose to either a) repeat the line with the same numbers to continue to build your bankroll with base bets or b) you can increase the line to account for the fact that you've now got a larger bankroll.  Because of the amount of juice in this system, repeating a line before the increase might be smart.

Now, to address the fact that Buffalo has lost 3 times, you can take that 49.8, divide it by 16, and spread the resulting 3.1 across each of the line components in lines 1.0-1 through 1.0-4, making each line 8.1-8.1-8.1-8.1, and slowly recover the Buffalo loss through wins on subsequent series.  Then, as you again clear lines 1.0-1 through 1.0-4, fall back to your 5-5-5-5 to get your base bet back to normal.

The alternative is what smdio suggests, but as you don't really have A, B, and C lines with how you've set up Lab, you can't quite do what he suggests (as I understand what you say and what he suggests).   I see your lines as one per active series, so you might create a 1.0-5 not as a result of a homestand loss (like Buffalo) but because you have 5 active HML chases at the same time.

Hope this helps.  Part of the problem with understanding Labouchere is that there is no hard and fast rule about what to do next... you need to adapt it to the situation.  This is also a strength.  

Best luck whatever you choose to do.

Separately, I have abandoned my idea of 1 line per team as headspinning complex to track.  
 
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Posted: #395
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:



spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tU1bm-tnxs54EnGibSt7yrQ&output=html


October 14 Plays

Line_1.0-4_oct14_A_nsh_ml_-110_1.10/1.00
Line_1.0-5_oct14_A_min_ml_-150_1.50/1.00


Line_2.0-4_oct14_A_stl__pl_-340_3.40/1.00
Line_2.0-5_oct14_A_edm_pl_-235_2.35/1.00

Line_2.0-1_oct14_B_fla__pl_-240_8.40/3.50
mart_9.6/4.0
Line_2.0-3_oct14_B_tam_pl_-190_5.13/2.70
mart_6.8/3.2

Line_1.1-1_oct14_A_phi_ml_-190_1.90/1.00

I added another line to Option 1.0 and 2.0 to accommodate new series starting tonight.
My plan is to wait until the outcome of the Buffalo series before redistributing units.
I will either be a hero if Buffalo wins or a chump if they lose.
 
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Posted: #396
October 14 Plays

Line_1.0-4_oct14_A_nsh_ml_-110_1.10/1.001st middle of the season
Line_1.0-5_oct14_A_min_ml_-150_1.50/1.00


Line_2.0-4_oct14_A_stl__pl_-340_3.40/1.00 1st middle of the season
Line_2.0-5_oct14_A_edm_pl_-235_2.35/1.00

Line_2.0-1_oct14_B_fla__pl_-240_8.40/3.50
mart_9.6/4.0
Line_2.0-3_oct14_B_tam_pl_-190_5.13/2.70
mart_6.8/3.2

Line_1.1-1_oct14_A_phi_ml_-190_1.90/1.00

I added another line to Option 1.0 and 2.0 to accommodate new series starting tonight.
My plan is to wait until the outcome of the Buffalo series before redistributing units.
I will either be a hero if Buffalo wins or a chump if they lose.
 
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Posted: #397
Best luck on Buffalo tonight!  
 
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Posted: #398
oct15_D_buf_ml_-150_
Line_1.0-1_5.22_to_get_3.48
I added line 6 and subtracted 20 from line 1.

martingale_19.80_to_get_13.20

oct12_A_atl_pl_-180_
Line 2.0-2:  1.9 to win 1.0
mart: 1.9 to win 1.0

oct15_B_van_pl_-320_
Line_2.0-2_7.68/2.4
martingale_9.28/2.9

 
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Posted: #399
I'm going to abandon the martingale and focus on labby only.
Lines are listed on the spreadsheet.
Not posting anymore martingale numbers.
 
 
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Posted: #400
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:



spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tU1bm-tnxs54EnGibSt7yrQ&output=html


Two years in a row a NY team can't win 1 damn game during their first home stand of the season.
I created lines 7 and 8 redistributed from line 1.
If we don't get it back sooner, Buffalo has another 4 gamer starting 11/19 they shouldn't lose 8 in a row at home.

What's up with all the -300+ Puck Lines! I don't remember having so many that high last season.  It will settle down after its determined who's good and who's not.
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