VAN is one long home stand. There is potential for more than one chase. So hopefully they will win game one and a new chase can start. Be careful though because SJ is on the verge of screwing this whole thing up if they don't win on 12/11 (I'm playing it). Luckily I hedged SJ last night with LA puck line and broke even for the day or else it would have been brutal. I am going to look at last months results and see if taking the dog either ml or pl would have worked also. Because as the season progresses the juice is going to get crazy high on the good teams.
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VAN is one long home stand. There is potential for more than one chase. So hopefully they will win game one and a new chase can start. Be careful though because SJ is on the verge of screwing this whole thing up if they don't win on 12/11 (I'm playing it). Luckily I hedged SJ last night with LA puck line and broke even for the day or else it would have been brutal. I am going to look at last months results and see if taking the dog either ml or pl would have worked also. Because as the season progresses the juice is going to get crazy high on the good teams.
I became a systems player a short time ago. I'm sold. The obvious problem with hockey systems is the juice. One A,B,C 3.00 loss wipes out 63 wins. So any hockey system in an ABC chase can only stand 1 or 2 loses per season. I have backtested 10 teams for this year & last year. 1 loss. "D" covered. There were 4 "C" wins. Any ideas on possible filters?
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smitler,
I became a systems player a short time ago. I'm sold. The obvious problem with hockey systems is the juice. One A,B,C 3.00 loss wipes out 63 wins. So any hockey system in an ABC chase can only stand 1 or 2 loses per season. I have backtested 10 teams for this year & last year. 1 loss. "D" covered. There were 4 "C" wins. Any ideas on possible filters?
r2pro I have realized that no system is perfect and any filter created will eventually be exposed. I'm really just experimenting with these plays, documenting the results and looking for trends. Read post 126 about juice. I have to see how the dogs have fared since I started posting. The biggest filter is managing my bankroll and emotional discipline. If I'm successful manipulating those aspects I believe many of these systems are viable. I'm trying but still haven't figured it out. I believe I would be way ahead if I didn't go on tilt and make shitty spot plays. That is why Vegas and the books never go broke. Serenity now. Insanity later.
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r2pro I have realized that no system is perfect and any filter created will eventually be exposed. I'm really just experimenting with these plays, documenting the results and looking for trends. Read post 126 about juice. I have to see how the dogs have fared since I started posting. The biggest filter is managing my bankroll and emotional discipline. If I'm successful manipulating those aspects I believe many of these systems are viable. I'm trying but still haven't figured it out. I believe I would be way ahead if I didn't go on tilt and make shitty spot plays. That is why Vegas and the books never go broke. Serenity now. Insanity later.
By no means am I trying to put a damper on this thread. I backtested the 08-09 season and the results were not as good as initially communicated with Smitler.
Last year the following teams lost 3 or more games to start a homestand of 3 or more games.
NYI L3
Mon L3 W 4th
Ott L3 W 4th
Tor L3 W4th and L3 a 2nd time
TB L3 and L3 a 2nd time
Wash L4
Chi L3 W 4+5
Col L3
Van L5
Dal L3 and L5 a 2nd time
LA L3 and L3 a 2nd time W4th
Last year 12 times a home team lost 3 straight to begin the homestand.
As far as starting a 2nd chase after a win on a long homestand also the results were not favorable.
NYI W 1st L next 4
Bos W 1st L next 3
Ott 8games W1st 4 then L 3
Car W 1st L next 3
TB W 1st L next 3 and 5 games L,W L3
Det W 1st L3
Nash W 1,2 then L 3
Col W 1,2 then L4
Edm W L W then L3
Ana L W then L3
LA W 3 then L4
Pho W 1st then L3
Those were the results from last season. It is a small sample size. Looking for a filter its not clear because teams such as Chi, Van, Dal and Wash were amongst those losing 3 straight to begin a homestand.
As far as trying to get multiple plays from 1 homestand, looking at the results it isn't recommended because even teams like Bos and Det were fell victim.
Take this information for what its worth. Once again it is only last year and a small sample size.
Go Home teams Go
Best of Luck
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By no means am I trying to put a damper on this thread. I backtested the 08-09 season and the results were not as good as initially communicated with Smitler.
Last year the following teams lost 3 or more games to start a homestand of 3 or more games.
NYI L3
Mon L3 W 4th
Ott L3 W 4th
Tor L3 W4th and L3 a 2nd time
TB L3 and L3 a 2nd time
Wash L4
Chi L3 W 4+5
Col L3
Van L5
Dal L3 and L5 a 2nd time
LA L3 and L3 a 2nd time W4th
Last year 12 times a home team lost 3 straight to begin the homestand.
As far as starting a 2nd chase after a win on a long homestand also the results were not favorable.
NYI W 1st L next 4
Bos W 1st L next 3
Ott 8games W1st 4 then L 3
Car W 1st L next 3
TB W 1st L next 3 and 5 games L,W L3
Det W 1st L3
Nash W 1,2 then L 3
Col W 1,2 then L4
Edm W L W then L3
Ana L W then L3
LA W 3 then L4
Pho W 1st then L3
Those were the results from last season. It is a small sample size. Looking for a filter its not clear because teams such as Chi, Van, Dal and Wash were amongst those losing 3 straight to begin a homestand.
As far as trying to get multiple plays from 1 homestand, looking at the results it isn't recommended because even teams like Bos and Det were fell victim.
Take this information for what its worth. Once again it is only last year and a small sample size.
We might be using different rules. I tested 3 conc @ home, all against in conf, m/l if fav & p/l if dog. One chase per home stand. 08/09 NYI 2 plays. 1/13 168 dog. P/L covered. 2/26 108 dog. P/L covered.
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We might be using different rules. I tested 3 conc @ home, all against in conf, m/l if fav & p/l if dog. One chase per home stand. 08/09 NYI 2 plays. 1/13 168 dog. P/L covered. 2/26 108 dog. P/L covered.
P did you check to see if there were any home dogs that covered on the PL? We have had two of them so far.
Good Point, no I did not.
As you can imagine going thru every team from last year gets very tiresome. The site I was getting the results from only listed w/l and the score. It didn't list if teams were favs or dogs. To get a more accurate picture this has to be done. I apologize to all and I had no intention of trying to mislead the readers.
I would imagine there would be more than a handful of times which the home teams were dogs.
I'm just not sure when I will be able to go thru them again.
Maybe someone could help. The teams have been established already which was the bulk of the work. Those teams which don't apply have been weeded out. If anyone else would like to take the ball from here it would be appreciated, otherwise I will try to continue on with backtesting as soon as possible.
Thanks to all.
Best of Luck
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Quote Originally Posted by smitler:
P did you check to see if there were any home dogs that covered on the PL? We have had two of them so far.
Good Point, no I did not.
As you can imagine going thru every team from last year gets very tiresome. The site I was getting the results from only listed w/l and the score. It didn't list if teams were favs or dogs. To get a more accurate picture this has to be done. I apologize to all and I had no intention of trying to mislead the readers.
I would imagine there would be more than a handful of times which the home teams were dogs.
I'm just not sure when I will be able to go thru them again.
Maybe someone could help. The teams have been established already which was the bulk of the work. Those teams which don't apply have been weeded out. If anyone else would like to take the ball from here it would be appreciated, otherwise I will try to continue on with backtesting as soon as possible.
Well SJ just Fkd us over. That is the first series loss trying for a second win. I am going back tomorrow and look at this closer. It may work better to take the visiting dog pl. Are you Fkn kiddin me!
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Well SJ just Fkd us over. That is the first series loss trying for a second win. I am going back tomorrow and look at this closer. It may work better to take the visiting dog pl. Are you Fkn kiddin me!
Well SJ just Fkd us over. That is the first series loss trying for a second win. I am going back tomorrow and look at this closer. It may work better to take the visiting dog pl. Are you Fkn kiddin me!
DAM!! I checked the wrong box yesterday and bet on dallas I was on my 4th mix drink when I placed the bet that's one more then my limit, turn out good.
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Quote Originally Posted by smitler:
Well SJ just Fkd us over. That is the first series loss trying for a second win. I am going back tomorrow and look at this closer. It may work better to take the visiting dog pl. Are you Fkn kiddin me!
DAM!! I checked the wrong box yesterday and bet on dallas I was on my 4th mix drink when I placed the bet that's one more then my limit, turn out good.
I analyzed the results since I started posting and found some useful information. The road dog covered every single series thus far if you had them puck line. The road dog won outright all but two times (WAS and NAS). NAS won five home games in a row and were never over -150 favorites. They had one road game then came home and lost two of three there. WAS won three home games and were at least -165 favorites. They split two road games and returned home for one game and lost.
Possible filters: Dog SU if +149 or less. Dog PL if +150 or greater.
Let me know your thoughts and ideas on this analysis. I don't know much about NHL so those who do may be able to get more in depth.
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I analyzed the results since I started posting and found some useful information. The road dog covered every single series thus far if you had them puck line. The road dog won outright all but two times (WAS and NAS). NAS won five home games in a row and were never over -150 favorites. They had one road game then came home and lost two of three there. WAS won three home games and were at least -165 favorites. They split two road games and returned home for one game and lost.
Possible filters: Dog SU if +149 or less. Dog PL if +150 or greater.
Let me know your thoughts and ideas on this analysis. I don't know much about NHL so those who do may be able to get more in depth.
Just wanted to correct and add to earler post using 08-09 season.
I want to apologize again because I made some errors.
This is a small sample size but went back and rechecked. As mentioned before, not trying to mislead just looking to help us all find the best way to make $$$.
Last year the following teams lost at least 3 staright at home but I will also list those that covered the PL +1.5.
NYI LLL covered g2 LLLL covered g1
Tor LLL covered g1
Car LLL no cover
TB LLL no cover - LLL 2nd time covered g2 - LLL 3rd time covered g3
Wash LLLL no cover
Det LLL no cover
Nash LLL covered g2
Edm LLL covered g3
Van LLLLL no cover
Dal LLL no cover
LA LLLL covered g1 g3 LLL 2nd time no cover
Pho LLL covered g1
Final results were 7 times a team lost 3 straight and didn't cover
9 other times a team lost 3 straight but covered PL in 1 of 3
Then I back checked teams which w and tried to get another win on the homestand.
Bos WW LLL won2 then no cover in 3 losses
Mon W LLL no cover in 3 L
OTT LW LLLL no cover in 4L 2nd time W LLL covered g1
Tor W LLL covered g2
TB LW LLL lost 3 covered g3 of 3 L
Chi WWLLL won2 then covered g3 of 3 L
Col LW LLLL covered g4 of 4 losses LLL covered g2
Ana W LLL no cover
LA W LLLLL covered g2 of 5L
Pho W LLL no cover
Teams trying for additional series wins -- 5 teams lost 3 straight after 1st win of homestand.without covering the PL.
Thanks Smitler
Go Home Teams Go
Best of Luck
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Hey Smitty,
Just wanted to correct and add to earler post using 08-09 season.
I want to apologize again because I made some errors.
This is a small sample size but went back and rechecked. As mentioned before, not trying to mislead just looking to help us all find the best way to make $$$.
Last year the following teams lost at least 3 staright at home but I will also list those that covered the PL +1.5.
NYI LLL covered g2 LLLL covered g1
Tor LLL covered g1
Car LLL no cover
TB LLL no cover - LLL 2nd time covered g2 - LLL 3rd time covered g3
Wash LLLL no cover
Det LLL no cover
Nash LLL covered g2
Edm LLL covered g3
Van LLLLL no cover
Dal LLL no cover
LA LLLL covered g1 g3 LLL 2nd time no cover
Pho LLL covered g1
Final results were 7 times a team lost 3 straight and didn't cover
9 other times a team lost 3 straight but covered PL in 1 of 3
Then I back checked teams which w and tried to get another win on the homestand.
Bos WW LLL won2 then no cover in 3 losses
Mon W LLL no cover in 3 L
OTT LW LLLL no cover in 4L 2nd time W LLL covered g1
Tor W LLL covered g2
TB LW LLL lost 3 covered g3 of 3 L
Chi WWLLL won2 then covered g3 of 3 L
Col LW LLLL covered g4 of 4 losses LLL covered g2
Ana W LLL no cover
LA W LLLLL covered g2 of 5L
Pho W LLL no cover
Teams trying for additional series wins -- 5 teams lost 3 straight after 1st win of homestand.without covering the PL.
So I took your version of this method and applied it to the whole season. Here is the record by month W - L Oct 25 - 1 Nov 29 - 0 Dec 13 - 0 Total 67 - 1
I create a second version that takes 6 game home stands and break them into two series. This gave two more possible series to bet on. Here is the record by month W - L Oct 25 - 1 Nov 31 - 0 Dec 13 - 0 Total 69 - 1
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So I took your version of this method and applied it to the whole season. Here is the record by month W - L Oct 25 - 1 Nov 29 - 0 Dec 13 - 0 Total 67 - 1
I create a second version that takes 6 game home stands and break them into two series. This gave two more possible series to bet on. Here is the record by month W - L Oct 25 - 1 Nov 31 - 0 Dec 13 - 0 Total 69 - 1
I will continue posting and playing this system, however, I'm going to
shift my emphasis to playing the road dog either Puck Line or Money
Line.
We lost another series tonight with the NYR. That makes two since November 1 and a record of 40-2
Read post 139 for the reason in shift.
In summary, we would be 42-0 if took Puck Line on the road team.
Additionally, we would be 40-2 if we took the road
team Money Line. So a lot less juice to risk with same result. I wonder if you can parlay them (just thinkin out loud). Please comment if you have any long term experience doing any of the above. This is my first year playing NHL and there appears to be more potential here for a great system than in any other sport. Just need to figure it out. Who knows, I may be crazier than a shit house rat too.
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I will continue posting and playing this system, however, I'm going to
shift my emphasis to playing the road dog either Puck Line or Money
Line.
We lost another series tonight with the NYR. That makes two since November 1 and a record of 40-2
Read post 139 for the reason in shift.
In summary, we would be 42-0 if took Puck Line on the road team.
Additionally, we would be 40-2 if we took the road
team Money Line. So a lot less juice to risk with same result. I wonder if you can parlay them (just thinkin out loud). Please comment if you have any long term experience doing any of the above. This is my first year playing NHL and there appears to be more potential here for a great system than in any other sport. Just need to figure it out. Who knows, I may be crazier than a shit house rat too.
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12/1, Lost next 4
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