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NHL Home Chase

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Prospect
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Joined: Jun, 2009
Posts: 170
Posted: #151

SMITLER, losses are not your enemy, every system takes losses. Bad MM is your enemy, adapt your MM to make profits over time and you should be ok. Avoid martingale is #1 priority. It creates huge profits but the inherent risk is way too much.

GMSI

 
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Posted: #152
December 2009
01,03,05,09,11_________SJ      12/1, Lost next 4
02,04,05______________NJ      11/28 and 12/4
03,05,07______________PIT     12/3
03,05,07,09,11_________BUF   12/3 and 12/9
03,05,09______________CLB    12/9
03,05,07______________LA      12/3
03,05,07______________PHO 12/3
05,07,09______________TB      12/5
05,08,10,12____________NSH  12/8
09,11,13,15,19_________COL   12/11 and 12/13
09,11,12,16,18_________NJ      12/9 and 12/12
10,12,14,16,18,20,22,26_VAN   12/10 and 12/12
12,14,16______________NYR Lost all 3, but won next at NYI
12,14,16______________TOR  12/12
13,16,18,20,22_________CHI   11/13
15,17,19,21____________EDM
17,19,21,23____________NYI
17,19,21_______________PHI
17,19,21_______________ATL 12/17
17,19,23,27____________CGY 12/17
19,21,23,26____________CAR
19,21,23_______________DAL
21,23,26_______________MIN
21,23,27_______________PIT
21,23,26_______________PHO
23,26,28_______________WAS
23,26,28,30,1/02________TB
23,26,30_______________NYR
26,28,30_______________SJ
27,31,1/03______________FLA
27,29,31,1/02___________STL
28,30,31,1/03,1/05_______OTT
29,31,1/02______________PHO
29,31,1/02______________DAL
30,31,1/02______________CGY
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 90
Posted: #153

Two [C] losses in four days....EDM blowing a 2 goal lead in the 3rd, getting 1 1/2, and they give up 4!!!

 

Two more [C] bets on Monday.  I think it is time to get off this system, before all profits are lost.

 

What a shame.

 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 9
Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by DR-D:

Two [C] losses in four days....EDM blowing a 2 goal lead in the 3rd, getting 1 1/2, and they give up 4!!!

 

Two more [C] bets on Monday.  I think it is time to get off this system, before all profits are lost.

 

What a shame.



I guess it depends on how you played the 1st home game for NYI.  NYI was the underdog at some books.  If you took the PL there is only one C bet. 
 
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Posted: #155
Wow couldn't logon at all this morning for some reason. Must have been very busy.

I had two C losses this week also NYR and EDM pl (total moose).

If you look back at post 150 it was noted how successful the PL is taking the visiting team.  There would not be a single loss.
I don't think the home chase is going to be viable with the juice factor.  We would have been better off just taking the road team ML with no juice.
I will continue posting and playing small for record keeping but most of my money is on road team PL.
 
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Posted: #156
What the hell is going on? Keeps saying forums don't exist.
 
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Posted: #157
Make or break tonight for this system.
D EDM (down $200)
C NYI   (down $100)
C PHI   (down $50)

I'm playin each to win $50 and 3tp ($40 to win $350).


 
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Posted: #158
Three A games tonight too. Playin to win same amount ML home team and PL road team.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 97
Posted: #159

Smit,

This is my first year playing hockey.  I just wanted to verify your post 150.  You're saying to take the PL for the visiting team when there's 3 home games in a row?

 
Rookie
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Joined: Apr, 2006
Posts: 524
Posted: #160

smitler,

if you play the PL on the road dogs, you mentioned it does not have a loss yet. Are you chasing the entire homestand, or cap it off at 3 games and consider it a loss?

 
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Posted: #161
kaki57 that is correct.  Using the same schedule in post #152 just apply the Puck Line to the road team if they are a dog.   Hasn't lost a series yet.

Alternatively, if you only played the Money Line on the road team there would have only been two series losses.  Lot less juice involved since they are almost all underdogs. This method would also involve less investment to make up for the two series losses.

E50 probably the entire stand until you win if you can afford it.  However, I don't believe any PL win took more than three games.

I am currently chasing Home Team ML and Road Team PL.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 473
Posted: #162
Not with ya here on the chase but...........
.......... -  and keep fighting the good fight smitler

I haven't looked back but out of curiosity how you chasing it ?
Hope your not martingaling it - Yikes !!!!!!!!!



 
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Posted: #163
MM if the A doesn't win the rest of the chase is just to make my money back rounding up a little to even the $ amount.
Its a slow go, but I'm not ready to risk on labby and for sure not marti.
 
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Posted: #164
The wheels have completely come off of this system.  I'm not even going to post anymore.
I may start a new NHL Road Puck Line thread with January home stands schedule.
I will play the month out on the Road Team PL.
Sorry to all who tailed.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 38
Posted: #165
im still going to use the system, good mm will get it back plus, checking each match up for example I sat out pitt and phi today due to match ups. Consequently the islanders lost and very well min will as well, dont worry we're getting our butts kicked right now, But I think we still got something here...maybe we need some filters?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #166
drLing.............
Try only playing top how ever many home teams
Don't play the bums and the mediocore hm teams
Yes less plays but should be a stronger shot of winning a series
But still could have a good home team hit a hm losing streak
Also done last yr was to fade the worst hm teams by taking different rd team to win the series
No PL's were used I think - just ML's
PL's could help though juicy
Be careful mechanical systems can bomb
Filters definitely do help


smitler................
Wise with the MM - always live for another day
The marti should rarely ever be used in most chases
It all depends on the lines and how deep the rabbit's hole we go
Its cool though - you'll get 'em back
We win like men..........
We lose like men..........
I too am trying out some things that have been all over the place
But if you don't shoot - you don't score
This is how we find successful systems

......................


 
Prospect
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Posted: #167
Oh yeah - I forgot to throw in.........
GMSI up top on the page..............
He says it best........ -
 
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Posted: #168
December 2009
01,03,05,09,11_________SJ      12/1, Lost next 4
02,04,05______________NJ      11/28 and 12/4
03,05,07______________PIT     12/3
03,05,07,09,11_________BUF   12/3 and 12/9
03,05,09______________CLB    12/9
03,05,07______________LA      12/3
03,05,07______________PHO 12/3
05,07,09______________TB      12/5
05,08,10,12____________NSH  12/8
09,11,13,15,19_________COL   12/11 and 12/13
09,11,12,16,18_________NJ      12/9 and 12/12
10,12,14,16,18,20,22,26_VAN 12/10, 12, 14, 18, 22 (5 wins)
12,14,16______________NYR All 3, W next at NYI
12,14,16______________TOR  12/12
13,16,18,20,22_________CHI   12/13, 16, 18
15,17,19,21____________EDM All 4 and 1st road game
17,19,21,23____________NYI    12/23
17,19,21_______________PHI  All 3, W 1st road game
17,19,21_______________ATL 12/17
17,19,23,27____________CGY 12/17
19,21,23,26____________CAR   12/19
19,21,23_______________DAL   12/19
21,23,26_______________MIN   12/23
21,23,27_______________PIT     12/23
21,23,26_______________PHO   12/21
23,26,28_______________WAS 12/23
23,26,28,30,1/02________TB
23,26,30_______________NYR   12/23
26,28,30_______________SJ
27,31,1/03______________FLA
27,29,31,1/02___________STL
28,30,31,1/03,1/05_______OTT
29,31,1/02______________PHO
29,31,1/02______________DAL
30,31,1/02______________CGY
 
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Posted: #169
If you are playing a road chase on the above home stands, there is a C ML or PL game tonight LA at PHO. FYI: PHO won 3 in a row 12/3, 12/5, and 12/7.
I continue to analyze the data and will link a spreadsheet with results and lines showing Home ML, Home -1.5, Visitor ML, and Visitor PL.

Results Nov. 1 through Dec 25
Home Team ML:  50-4
Road Team ML:   52-3
Road Team PL:    55-0
 
Prospect
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Posted: #170
Plays for today are

FLA - B
STL - C

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong

****************
Smitler --- if you can post the Jan plays like you did for Dec
I will try to copy & paste and keep updated for you.

Also, your last post -- I thought this was only a home chase sys,
I didn't think we were playing away games ...
or did I miss something??

THX
 
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Posted: #171
BN727
FLA and DAL were both Home PL winners on the first game so they are done.
STL is a C

There are three ways to play based on these home stands.
The current record taking the home team is  57-4.
The current record taking the road team ML is 57-5.
THE CURRENT RECORD TAKING THE ROAD TEAM PL IS 62-0 .  One time it had to go to the fourth game to cover.

I'm currently playing the Road Team PL for more $ than the Home team ML, but have already hit a surprising number of middles.

I will post the January schedule after tonight's games or sometime tomorrow. No worries, I will continue to update it.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #172
THX SMIT!!

I re-read some of the previous posts to get a better 
understanding

But also wanted to wish you and everyone on here
a Very Happy & Prosperous New Year for 2010!

And Thanks for all you do!!
 
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Posted: #173
2 middles tonight to go 4-0.  This is good stuff.
 
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Posted: #174
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AhVKY8GzoikLdFUxYm0tdG54czU
 
 
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Posted: #175
spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AhVKY8GzoikLdFUxYm0tdG54czU
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