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WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #76
awesome, just wanted to hear your opinion. I jumped on when I saw the line move, and just bought the 1/2 point 

 
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Posted: #77
silly im telling you dallas wins this week, that is all...take it or leave it but they will win. this reminds of when they took down the 13-0 saints. trust me.



 
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Posted: #78
silly who you like best for survivor pool this week, seattle, chicago, or san diego?
 
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Posted: #79
It's a good week to use San Diego.  Chicago will have more opportunities down the line that I don't think you'll get with SD.  The Chiefs are the worst team in football.
 
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Posted: #80
Well the Celtics gave it their best effort I think... but despite bringing a pretty good offense tonight, they just couldn't do anything to contain the Heat who spread the floor exceptionally well.  The Heat are freaking sick.  Definitely the favorites to win it again.
 
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Posted: #81
Hey silly, Just wanted your opinion on why Oakland is giving 1.5 to Tampa...this seems like a trap game. TB's offense looked very sharp and explosive last Thursday and I believe that Minn defense is way better than Oakland's. The only thing Oak has is their home field advantage. Kinda of a brain fuck to me to see Oak giving points...
 
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Posted: #82
Adobe.
 
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Posted: #83

Si1ly,

what are your thoughts on a 6 pt teaser Tampa Bay and San Diego?

 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by pcz:

Gonna put in some early ones before the lines get inflated:

DEN -3.5 -105
CHI -3.5 -105
TB ML +105
BAL -3.5 -105 (coming off bye week)

I think these are going to be my only plays for the week.

TB ML & Den -3.5 +300 - 2 units
CHI & DEN & BAL +350 - 1 units
TB ML +105 - 4 units

Nice cards! Two angels against the Browns:

Home team going into their bye week with a spread of 0 to -6 this year are 0-8 ATS and 15-43 (25.8%) ATS the past 14 Years!

 

For the season 2010-2011 Favorites coming off a bye went 

9-5-2 ATS

Road Favorites coming off a bye went 2-0-1 ATS 

Road Favorites coming off a bye were coming into the season on a 8-0 ATS streak > 

That streak was bolstered to a blistering 10-0-1 ATS clip where it ended the 2010-2011 season>

_______________

2011-2012 season  through week 9 :

Favorites coming off a bye are 9-5 ATS 

Road favorites coming off abye are 3-1 ATS 

Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run 


 I also like Detroit to beat the crap out of Jags.

@Whaler I like that teaser will tail you on that one.  

I don't see how KC can win this game, do you? But just in case right? So come the 6pts teaser.

Will also bet SD 1Q if the spread is -.5

Bought the hook for the Bears as well. Feeling really good about this week. Let's see how it goes
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by ReadBtWtheLines:

Who would be your top survivor option(s) this week si1ly? Thx very much.

If you haven't used Houston, now is as good a time as any.  Next best choice is San Diego.  Then Chicago.  After that it's a whole bunch of coin flips.
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by whalerchris:

Si1ly,

what are your thoughts on a 6 pt teaser Tampa Bay and San Diego?


San Diego is only a good tease if they get down to SD -2.5 or less.
 
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Posted: #87
Celtics had opportunities.. Clips Friday night...GL
 
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Posted: #88
Raiders defen suck? lol r u serious? the only suck in that team is that number 3 guy, he can't do shiet. 
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by longstah:

Raiders defen suck? lol r u serious? the only suck in that team is that number 3 guy, he can't do shiet. 

Well, to be fair, the Raiders are #27 in points allowed, #28 in yards per point and #23 in yards per play and net yards per attempt.  Their only shining point on defense is their league average #16 ranked run defense.  The Raiders defense sucks.
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by LasVegasLord:

Adobe.

Haha LVL, what about Adobe?
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by BigLick08:


Nice cards! Two angels against the Browns:

Home team going into their bye week with a spread of 0 to -6 this year are 0-8 ATS and 15-43 (25.8%) ATS the past 14 Years!

 

For the season 2010-2011 Favorites coming off a bye went 

9-5-2 ATS

Road Favorites coming off a bye went 2-0-1 ATS 

Road Favorites coming off a bye were coming into the season on a 8-0 ATS streak > 

That streak was bolstered to a blistering 10-0-1 ATS clip where it ended the 2010-2011 season>

_______________

2011-2012 season  through week 9 :

Favorites coming off a bye are 9-5 ATS 

Road favorites coming off abye are 3-1 ATS 

Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run 


 I also like Detroit to beat the crap out of Jags.

@Whaler I like that teaser will tail you on that one.  

I don't see how KC can win this game, do you? But just in case right? So come the 6pts teaser.

Will also bet SD 1Q if the spread is -.5

Bought the hook for the Bears as well. Feeling really good about this week. Let's see how it goes




I might have a late play for the week. Depends on the weather in CLE. If weather is good, I'll go 4u on BAL Should be a blowout.

Wonder what the trend is for Baltimore after bye weeks going into a divisional game. I am assume it's good because it's a Harbaugh at head coach.
 
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Posted: #92

Si1ly,

I had s.f. in a 6pt teaser on Monday with an add in spot.  Who would you suggest? 

Thanks in advance.

 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by JBhouse:

Si1ly,

I had s.f. in a 6pt teaser on Monday with an add in spot.  Who would you suggest? 

Thanks in advance.


If you can get San Diego down to below -2.5 I would do that.  Teasing Tampa up to 7 could work too.
 
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Posted: #94
will you play san diego?

really liking them in this spot
 
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Posted: #95
hey sil1y do you support a play on the chargers ML -305?? i know your sheet says it should be around a -600...

your numbers say chargers are the superior team.

external factors:

1) home field  adv. SD
2) division game adv. KC (although this factor is diminished because of #3)
3) playoff/division aspirations   adv. SD
4)  losing streak sd(3)  kc(4)    adv. SD (more pressure on SD to win)
5) matt cassel return  adv. KC (will the chiefs rally around cassel coming back from being booed after his injury??)
6) prime time  adv. SD (chargers cannot afford to lose, a loss would be another embarrassment and another setback in their chase for a playoff spot in the weak AFC)
7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv. KC (KC coming off a loss in the first game, they have the chance to make their adjustments after already seeing the Chargers once)


what do you think of this breakdown and what should be my main concers?

i'm already locked on SD -305
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Show_Stoppa:

hey sil1y do you support a play on the chargers ML -305?? i know your sheet says it should be around a -600...

your numbers say chargers are the superior team.

external factors:

1) home field  adv. SD
2) division game adv. KC (although this factor is diminished because of #3)
3) playoff/division aspirations   adv. SD
4)  losing streak sd(3)  kc(4)    adv. SD (more pressure on SD to win)
5) matt cassel return  adv. KC (will the chiefs rally around cassel coming back from being booed after his injury??)
6) prime time  adv. SD (chargers cannot afford to lose, a loss would be another embarrassment and another setback in their chase for a playoff spot in the weak AFC)
7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv. KC (KC coming off a loss in the first game, they have the chance to make their adjustments after already seeing the Chargers once)


what do you think of this breakdown and what should be my main concers?

i'm already locked on SD -305

7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv KC ... disagree!!! .. they have both seen each other, SD have beaten KC on their own turf and now have the chance to play them at home and the fact they rolled them the first time quite convincingly, then i dont think that is advantage KC
 
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Posted: #97
On the same wavelengths as you this week did my lines tonight and printed off your breakdown sheets to mull over.. Similiar leans i have are
Denver -5.5
Chicago -7
Houston -15.5
Tampa Bay -2.5
Washington -5
Atlanta -7 (raw model came out as -9!!) but something about that game isnt sitting right with me so i dont think i will play...

Definately with you on Denver Chicago and i think il play houston, others will be gameday decisions..

Anyway keep up the good work love the sheets each week
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by BigLick08:


Nice cards! Two angels against the Browns:

Home team going into their bye week with a spread of 0 to -6 this year are 0-8 ATS and 15-43 (25.8%) ATS the past 14 Years!

 

For the season 2010-2011 Favorites coming off a bye went 

9-5-2 ATS

Road Favorites coming off a bye went 2-0-1 ATS 

Road Favorites coming off a bye were coming into the season on a 8-0 ATS streak > 

That streak was bolstered to a blistering 10-0-1 ATS clip where it ended the 2010-2011 season>

_______________

2011-2012 season  through week 9 :

Favorites coming off a bye are 9-5 ATS 

Road favorites coming off abye are 3-1 ATS 

Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run 


 I also like Detroit to beat the crap out of Jags.

@Whaler I like that teaser will tail you on that one.  

I don't see how KC can win this game, do you? But just in case right? So come the 6pts teaser.

Will also bet SD 1Q if the spread is -.5

Bought the hook for the Bears as well. Feeling really good about this week. Let's see how it goes


The home team is not between 0 and -6 though.
 
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Posted: #99
Silly, are you any closer to locking in Houston and Miami? They seem to have the largest variances outside of Denver and Chicago.

Thanks
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Silly, are you any closer to locking in Houston and Miami? They seem to have the largest variances outside of Denver and Chicago.

Thanks

Hard to say, I'm already on two road favorites getting 65% public consensus.  Don't know if I want to add a public home favorite laying double digits.  Miami is still a mystery to me.  I have a horrible read on this team, and I live in this freaking city.
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