The 2022 U.S. Open lived up to its reputation as the hardest major in golf. Nine of the 23 golfers to enter Saturday under par remained there.
Two of those, Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick, are at the top of the leaderboard at 4-under par. Zalatoris had the low round of the day with a 67, one of only seven rounds under par shot on Saturday.
Both Zalatoris and Fitzpatrick have never held the lead going into the final round of a tournament and are both winless on the PGA Tour.
We look at the U.S. Open odds board and deliver three picks, including predicting who we think we’ll win the 122nd U.S. Open.
2022 U.S. Open Round 4 picks
Picks were made on 6/18/2022 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
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Best 2022 U.S. Open Round 4 picks
Sam Burns outright (+1,600)
Sam Burns is a long shot, but he does have a better than realistic chance to win the U.S. Open.
The 25-year-old is tied for seventh going into the final round, just three shots back of the leaders. As Saturday showed us, making up three shots is definitely possible.
Burns has had two over-par rounds and he is still within striking distance. In between his one over 71s in the first and third round was a nice 67. A similar round would put him in a position to win the U.S. Open.
Burns has been flying under the radar all season, with three wins and seven Top-10 finishes. He finished tied for 20th at the PGA Championship and was tied for fourth at last week’s Canadian Open.
Burns is never going to wow you off the tee, but he is tied for 13th this week in greens in regulation and tied for 14th in putting. Those stats on Sunday will be a lot more valuable than how far you can hit the ball.
Best odds: Sam Burns outright (+1,600 at BetMGM)
Keegan Bradley Top-5 finish (+150)
Quietly, Keegan Bradley has put himself in a position to win the second major of his career. He captured the 2011 PGA Championship but has only had two Top-10 finishes in majors since then.
This year, however, the 36-year-old has found something in his game. He is tied for fourth, just two shots back of the leaders.
One advantage Bradley has is he is benefitting from a home-course advantage. Bradley is a New Englander, and the crowds at The Country Club have been supportive. On Saturday, when he walked up to the 18th green, he received a thunderous ovation.
Bradley said it was like a dream, though he said Sunday will be a tough round.
“It's going to be intense, but I've had this weird sense of calm over me this week,” Bradley said. “I don't know if that will be here tomorrow or not, but I just have to try to just put one foot in front of the other. Honestly, that's all the silly cliches we all say. I'm playing really well, and I really feel comfortable on this course.”
Bradley might not win, but he should finish in the Top 5.
Best odds: Keegan Bradley Top-5 finish (+150 at DraftKings)
Winning score 5-under or worse (-110)
The greens have firmed up, the winds have picked up, and the golf course is starting to show its teeth. In the second round, there were 28 rounds under par. On Saturday, there were seven.
On Sunday, there might not even be that many. There is supposed to be some rain blow through the area through the night, but the greens will still be fast. Plus, the wind is what will wreak havoc on the golfers. The forecast is for 13 to 14 mph winds when the leaders tee off, with it dropping to 10 mph when they make the turn.
Nerves will play a factor, too. There is going to be a lot of defensive golf played by those near the lead. Minimizing mistakes is the goal for the final round.
Look at what happened to Rahm on the 18th hole in the third round. He had the lead, but cooked his tee shot into a bunker that took him two swings to get out of, then his second shot went into another bunker.
He walked off the course with a double bogey and instead of leading going into Sunday, he’s a stroke back.
One mistake can be fatal. I would not be surprised if the winner shot even par on Sunday and others ahead of him fell. The two golfers who are in the lead have never had this sort of pressure before. Don’t expect them to be at the top of the leaderboard after the final 18 holes.
I like 4-under to win this tournament.
Best odds: Winning score 5-under or worse (-110 at FanDuel)
2022 U.S. Open odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks in your region. Odds are best used between rounds. When available, our fair line is updated once per hour between 6 a.m. ET and 11 p.m. ET.
