Horse Racing Picks, Odds, and Best Bets for October 14: Will Mawj Make U.S. Debut a Winning One?

Three-year-old grass fillies are in the spotlight this Saturday as Belmont at the Big A hosts the Grade II, $200,000 Sands Point Stakes, while Keeneland offers another Grade I at their fall meet in the $600,000 QE II Challenge Cup.

The Breeders' Cup odds for the Filly & Mare Turf are sure to be impacted greatly after these two fantastic wagering races, so let's start digging into each event.

Sands Point Stakes odds, prediction and best bet

• Race: Belmont at the Big A Race 2
• Post time: 1:08 p.m. ET
• TV: FS2

Post	Horse	Track odds
1	Soviet Excess	4-1	+400	+400	+400
2	Quarrel	15-1	+1,500	+1,500	+1,500
3	Leave No Trace	15-1	+1,500	+1,500	+1,500
4	Be Your Best	7-2	+350	+350	+350
5	Neecie Marie	8-1	+800	+800	+800
6	Root Cause	10-1	+1,000	+1,000	+1,000
7	Eternal Hope	5-2	+250	+250	+250
8	Highland Grace	10-1	+1,000	+1,000	+1,000
9	Stephanie's Charm	30-1	+3,000	+3,000	+3,000
10	Alpha Bella	8-1	+800	+800	+800
11	Essaouira*	5-2	+250	+250	+250
12	Amanda's Folly*	6-1	+600	+600	+600
13	Ichiban*	2-1	+200	+200	+200

*Will only run if race is taken off the turf.

Odds as of October 13, 2023.

The Sands Point is being run fairly early on the Saturday card at Belmont at the Big A due to the threat of rain in the area. If this race does indeed come off the turf, I would consider an exacta box of No. 1 Soviet Excess, No. 6 Root Cause, and No. 13 Ichiban. Soviet Excess has proven form on synthetic surfaces and has worked well on conventional dirt. Root Cause has never tried dirt but is bred to get it and has only missed the trifecta once in five career starts. Ichiban has won three straight, including a state-bred stake at this surface and distance.

Assuming this race remains on the grass, No. 7 Eternal Hope (5-2, morning-line favorite) looks like the one to beat. She was last seen winning the Grade III Jockey Club Oaks going 1 3/8-miles over this course in her stateside debut. Eternal Hope was off slowly that day but rallied smartly to score over long shot No. 5 Neecie Marie (8-1).

The cutback might be detrimental to this Charlie Appleby trainee that is probably pointing to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf going longer than this. But if the turf course comes up less than firm, her past performances suggest that she'll enjoy it under Jamie Spencer, who ships in for the call.

Neecie Marie is a potential upset candidate after nearly beating the top choice at 14-1 last time out, as she was able to carry over some strong form from Parx. Jockey Abner Adorno is far from the most accomplished rider in this race, but he seems to fit this horse like a glove. Scaling back in distance could work in her favor too.

Soviet Excess (4-1) has been third in three straight stakes but today could be the day she breaks through. She adds a bit more ground, and this rallying daughter of Uncle Mo should appreciate it under Dylan Davis, who retains the assignment.

No. 8 Highland Grace (10-1) won convincingly over a yielding turf course two-back before coming up short in the Jockey Club Oaks. Jockey Junior Alvarado has been riding well at the meet (20%), and she'll be a much better price today than she was last time.

Best bet (turf only): $5 exacta 7/1, $4 exacta 7/5,8, $3 exacta 1/7, $2 exacta 5,8/7 ($20)

QE II Challenge Cup odds, prediction and best bet

• Race: Keeneland Race 9
• Post time: 5:16 p.m. ET
• TV: FanDuel TV

Post	Horse	Track odds
1	Mission of Joy	20-1	+2,000	+2,000	+1,800
2	Elusive Princess	3-1	+300	+300	+350
3	Safeen	30-1	+3,000	+3,000	+5,000
4	Mawj	2-1	+200	+200	+110
5	Be Your Best	20-1	+2,000	+2,000	+1,800
6	Lindy	6-1	+600	+600	+1,200
7	Sounds of Heaven	8-1	+800	+800	+1,000
8	Elounda Queen	10-1	+1,000	+1,000	+1,800
9	Heavenly Sunday	30-1	+3,000	+3,000	+2,800
10	Liguria	15-1	+1,500	+1,500	+1,200
11	Prerequisite	20-1	+2,000	+2,000	+2,500
12	Papilio	10-1	+1,000	+1,000	+1,200
13	Freydis the Red**	10-1	+1,000	+1,000	+1,000

**Horse is an also-eligible.

Odds as of October 13, 2023.

The Grade I QE II Challenge Cup has a distinctly European flavor, with three of the 12 runners making their stateside debuts, and another pair making only their second start in this country. Of this quintet, No. 4 Mawj (2-1, morning-line favorite) looks by far the most dangerous.

Mawj was last seen prevailing in the prestigious 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 7 over next-out Group I winner Tahiyra. She's unraced since and must negotiate another furlong here, but the talent is clearly there as she's 5-for-8 lifetime. The daughter of Exceed and Excel also has the tactical speed to make jockey Oisin Murphy's job an easier one. 

No. 7 Sounds of Heaven (8-1) also stretches out while making her first start across the pond, and while her flop on soft turf last time out was discouraging, there's lots to like about her previous efforts on firmer ground. She was beaten only a length by Tahiyra in the Group I Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot two-back, and won two in a row prior to that. Sean Foley keeps the assignment for underrated trainer Jessica Harrington.

No. 11 Prerequisite (20-1) stands the best chance of the Americans in this spot, especially if she uses her natural early foot to clear this wide draw. She won a Grade II in wire-to-wire fashion three-back and nearly did the same in a Grade I two starts ago. When taken off the pace last time, she was rendered ineffective. Trust in Irad Ortiz Jr. to work out the best trip possible and help Prerequisite outrun her odds.

No. 2 Elusive Princess (3-1) won the Grade III Saratoga Oaks by open lengths in a driving rainstorm that rendered the turf course unusable for the rest of the day. That effort could be seen as fluky, but she does have a runner-up result in a Group I in France under her belt too.

Best bet: $5 exacta 4/2,7,11, $3 win 7, $2 win 11 ($20)

Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic Schedule

*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic

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