While the horses take center stage in the Kentucky Derby, their connections offer additional angles of interest. Here are the top five storylines going into Saturday afternoon's Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.
Zandon and Epicenter vie for favoritism
Zandon and Epicenter, the top choices on the morning line at 3-1 and 7-2, respectively, bring stellar credentials and enticing Kentucky Derby odds. They both represent two of the best trainers in the business, each trying to win their first Kentucky Derby. But the duo arrive at Churchill Downs following different trajectories, and that could play a role in which one goes off as the favorite on Saturday.
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has the task of keeping Epicenter in winning form for an extended period of time. Going back to November, Epicenter has won four of his past five, and even his one loss in that span came by just ahead on the wire. He has continued to improve, with his track record-setting Louisiana Derby last outranking as his career-best.
In contrast, Zandon is more lightly raced, and four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown has just geared him up to peak of late. A troubled third to Epicenter in his seasonal reappearance, Zandon broke through with an impressive victory in the Blue Grass.
This morning, @TheRealChadCBr1 answered some media questions on the backside of @ChurchillDowns.
— TwinSpires Racing ???? (@TwinSpires) April 26, 2022
Our @TheBrownAndrew asked the important questions about #Zandon and his @KentuckyDerby chances, as well as what the future holds for #EarlyVoting! pic.twitter.com/OYomK5kEoe
That recent jump up has helped Zandon to overtake Epicenter for Derby favoritism, according to Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. But will bettors agree? Or will Epicenter, who was the favorite in the final Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, be favored again at post time?
Much will depend upon how Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, whose Gallery Furniture stores have a Derby-related promotion, decides to invest his mega-betting budget (reportedly up to $4 million).
Taiba seeks to make happier Derby history for connections
Taiba upset stablemate Messier in the Santa Anita Derby and now aims to become the first horse since 1883 to win the Kentucky Derby in just his third start. Yet, that historic bid is subsumed into the larger storyline about his connections.
Owner Amr Zedan of Zedan Racing Stables had the pleasure of entering the Derby winner’s circle last year with his Medina Spirit. His joy was short-lived, however, as the colt tested positive for a substance prohibited on race day, and he was ultimately disqualified.
In consequence, trainer Bob Baffert was suspended, initially by Churchill Downs Inc. (making his horses ineligible to earn qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby) and ultimately by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Owners, therefore, had to switch their horses to other barns.
.@TheBrownAndrew caught up with @mikeesmith10 between @ChurchillDowns races to chat about his #KyDerby mount aboard lightly-raced #Taiba, who will try and win the Run for the Roses in just his 3rd start ????
— TwinSpires Racing ???? (@TwinSpires) May 6, 2022
Bet w/ #TwinSpires! pic.twitter.com/e1vdimSEce
Taiba and Messier accordingly were transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen, and debuted for him in the Santa Anita Derby. Yakteen is a former Baffert assistant, but he also learned the craft from the late, great Charlie Whittingham, trainer of Derby winners Ferdinand (1986) and Sunday Silence (1989).
Although Yakteen is now saddling his first Derby starters, he has had success in his own right as the trainer of champion sprinter Points Offthebench and Grade 1-winning turf filly Mucho Unusual.
Derby winners via DQ want to finish first this time
Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux found themselves elevated as 2021 Derby winners after the fact. Their Mandaloun, second past the post, was officially awarded the victory upon the disqualification of Medina Spirit. Now Cox and Geroux are back at Churchill Downs with hopes of celebrating a decisive Derby victory on the racetrack.
Cox, the Eclipse Award winner as an outstanding trainer for the past two years, has three runners. Geroux is aboard arguably Cox’s best chance, Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife. His stablemates, Louisiana Derby runner-up Zozos and Lexington scorer Tawny Port, likewise enter on an upward curve.
Zandon’s jockey, Flavien Prat, is in a similar position as a Derby winner via disqualification. In 2019, he rode Country House, who was second to Maximum Security at the wire. Maximum Security was then demoted for interference on the far turn. The promoted Country House got to wear the roses and enter the hallowed Derby winner’s circle on the day.
Japanese contender could make history
Japan has been on a roll through a series of high-profile international race meetings, including landmark wins in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and the Distaff on the Del Mar dirt. The Japanese momentum could carry over to the Kentucky Derby, as Crown Pride has been earning rave reviews from morning work-watchers at Churchill Downs.
If Japan’s three prior Derby runners haven’t hit the board, they have been getting progressively closer over the years. The most recent Japanese hope, Master Fencer, was sixth in the 2019 running, and Crown Pride is a lot better. The Teruya Yoshida homebred booked his ticket by winning the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night, outstaying the speedy Summer Is Tomorrow (a Dubai-based runner who also earned his way to Louisville).
As a counterpoint, the UAE Derby historically hasn’t panned out as a Kentucky Derby prep, and its best winners haven’t run up to form on the first Saturday in May. But Crown Pride’s 3-for-4 resume and energetic work pattern point to a good effort, and Japanese contenders must not be underestimated, even on the dirt.
Scratch of Ethereal Road puts Rich Strike into the field
Ethereal Road, who just made it into the 20-horse field Monday morning, was set to become the 50th Derby starter for the legendary D. Wayne Lukas. The 86-year-old Hall of Famer has won the Derby four times, putting him a joint third on the all-time trainers’ list.
Champion filly Winning Colors (1988) was his first Derby winner, followed by Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996), and Charismatic (1999). But on Friday morning, Ethereal Road was scratched. As a result, the first also-eligible, Rich Strike, draws into the field and gets his chance to compete in the Kentucky Derby.
A 30-1 shot on the morning line, Rich Strike is a stamina-laden deep closer who would need a pace collapse to factor. No other defections were reported by scratch time, so the second also-eligible, Rattle N Roll, is officially out.
