Most-Selected Team in Circa Survivor Contest Continues to be Profitable Fade

Fading the most-picked team in the Circa Sports Survivor contest would’ve netted bettors some serious cash to this point in the NFL season.

Brad Senkiw - News Editorat Covers.com
Brad Senkiw • News Editor
Oct 7, 2024 • 16:47 ET • 4 min read
Ach Charbonnet
Photo By - Imagn Images

The Seattle Seahawks were the latest to succumb to a losing fate in the Circa Sports Survivor contest as 160 entries, the most in Week 5, selected them to stay alive in the pool.

The New York Giants upset the home favorite 29-20, sealing the victory on a blocked field goal that would’ve tied the game but turned into a TD return for the 7.5-point underdog. 

It also left just 1.5% of the initial participants vying for the $14.26 million prize pool. 

It marks the fourth time in five weeks that the team with the most selections lost. The Cincinnati Bengals proved to be the worst pick in Week 1, followed by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2, and the Bengals again in Week 3. The New York Jets cost the most entries in Week 4 with the second-highest picks.  

Combined with 86 participants being eliminated by the San Francisco 49ers’ 23-21 loss in Week 5 to the Arizona Cardinals, who rallied from a 13-point first-half deficit, only 221 of the 14,266 total entries remain. 


More eliminations to come

Each remaining entry currently has an implied value of $62,845, up big from $29,720 after Week 4, but that will change after Monday Night Football as the carnage from Week 5 isn’t complete. 

There are 22 entries riding on the final game of the week, with 16 on the Kansas City Chiefs and another six on the New Orleans Saints. 

That leaves a lot of participants breathing a sigh of relief, though.

After the first two most-selected teams bowed out, there was strong success much of the way with the Chicago Bears’ route of the Carolina Panthers putting 74 entries into Week 6, while 33 participants believed the Jacksonville Jaguars would get their first win of the season, which they did against the Colts. 

Another 33 entries rode the Denver Broncos to a no-sweat victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders helped a combined 52 entries survive. 

Lowest ever percentage remaining

The entry fee for Circa Survivor, which began in 2020, is $1,000, and the contest lasts 20 weeks as the games during Thanksgiving and Christmas are broken out into separate weeks. Participants can only pick a team to win once.

Despite being available to nearly 90% of the field, nobody picked the Cincinnati Bengals, who eliminated 4,895 entries in Week 1 and another 988 in Week 3. It proved a wise move after the Bengals lost in overtime to the Baltimore Ravens, who also weren’t selected in Week 5.

Regardless of Monday night’s outcome, this will be the lowest percentage left heading into Week 6. There were 19.8% of the 9,267-player field remaining at this point last year. The second lowest was in 2022 when 11.7% were left while the highest came in 2021 when 55.6% soldiered on to Week 6.

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