Sunday’s NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders sent fans and bettors on a wild roller-coaster ride.
Between blocked field goals, missed extra points, two touchdown returns, several turnovers, an 86-yard game-tying pass play, and a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary that came up short this time, the Cowboys survived with a 34-26 victory.
However, 37% of the Circa Survivor entries did not. Following the NFL's Week 12, the Las Vegas sportsbook’s annual contest went from 95 remaining participants down to 54.
Thanksgiving Week reminders for the 54 remaining #CircaSurvivor entries—
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) November 25, 2024
Week 13a (Thu-Fri games) 🦃🛍️
Wed 10am: Selections open
Wed 10pm: Selections due
Week 13b (Sun-Mon games) 🏈🍻
Fri midnight: Selections open
Sat 4pm: Selections due
*All times Pacific#CircaSurvivor 🏈🏆 https://t.co/NcWzxtqt6r
Thirty-three entries, tied for the most this week, selected Washington in the contest with a $14.26 million prize pool. It was an unlikely upset based on the Cowboys’ trajectory. The team had not played well even before quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for the season, but Sunday was their first win since Oct. 6 and the first under now-starter Cooper Rush in 2024. Washington was a double-digit favorite and desperately needed the win to keep pace with the hot Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.
It was a sensible pick and why so many entries backed the Commanders, but this is how this contest went early in the season. Only 1.5% of the 14,266 entries made it out of Week 5.
The implied value for the remaining 54 entries went from $150,168 after Week 11 to $264,185 following Sunday’s games.
Sweats and no sweats
Another eight entries were eliminated on Sunday by Houston’s 32-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans, who won for just the third time this season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers lost a snowy game on Thursday night to the Cleveland Browns, sending three entries packing.
There were success stories. The Miami Dolphins easily got 33 entries through to Thanksgiving Week with a win over the New England Patriots, while eight others sweated out Kansas City’s 30-27 victory over the Carolina Panthers.
The Denver Broncos stayed hot and kept another eight entries alive, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers helped out four participants with a convincing win over the New York Giants.
Just one entry went with the Green Bay Packers against a depleted 49ers squad, and it paid off with a double-digit win. More than 60 entries still had the Packers available in the contest which allows participants to pick one team each week that can’t be used again.
Unfortunately, one of the 95 entries heading into Week 12 didn’t make a selection and was also eliminated.
Split week
No picks were made on Monday Night Football’s Ravens-Chargers showdown.
Following that game, the contest takes its first interesting turn. The next set of games is broken up into two separate weeks. Entries for the three Thanksgiving Day games and one Black Friday contest count as Week 13. The remaining games Dec. 1-2 will be Week 14 for the Circa contest.
Thursday could present some difficult decisions as four of the six teams playing have losing records. The Lions, which were only available to 35 entries heading into Week 12, take on the Chicago Bears as a double-digit favorite. The Cowboys are a 4-point favorite at home against the 2-9 Giants, while the Dolphins are a field-goal underdog at Green Bay, which will likely be a popular pick in the Circa Survivor pool.
Friday’s game could also be pick-heavy for those who still have Kansas City available. The 10-1 Chiefs host the 2-9 Raiders as a nearly two-touchdown favorite.
