Joe Biden has no regard for closing line value.
The Democratic President of the United States and the people around him vowed for weeks that Biden would run for another term atop the party’s ticket. Those reassurances came after a debate on June 27 that Biden did poorly in, leading to calls for the 81-year-old to step aside.
But so much for that. On Sunday, Biden shocked the world by announcing he would not accept the Democratic nomination and that he was throwing his “full support and endorsement” behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Ontario's political betting markets show Kamala Harris is the overwhelming favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president, but that Donald Trump is still the fave to win in November.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 22, 2024
Harris -900 to be the Dem candidate at bet365 this morning, and +200 to win the election.… pic.twitter.com/zFgBtLuegJ
US election betting odds accordingly went haywire as bettors and bookmakers rushed to get in and out of their previous positions.
While Biden’s odds to win the presidency ballooned following the debate, he was viewed as the most likely Democratic as recently as last Wednesday, when bet365 had the incumbent priced at even money to represent the party in November. The veep, Harris, stood at +110.
But by Monday morning Biden was off the board entirely. Harris, meanwhile, was a -900 favorite at bet365 in Ontario (where election betting is legal) to be the Democratic candidate as of around noon, an implied probability of 90%. Trump's odds lengthened a touch, to -200 to win the election, followed by Harris at +200.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
At PredictIt, a legal predictions market in the U.S., more than six million contracts were bought and sold in its Democratic presidential nominee market on Sunday, the highest volume reported for the past three months. Biden's "yes" price, which once sat at 88 cents per share, has cratered to a penny; Harris' has shot up to 86 cents from a quarter last week.
So anyone who tried to buy low on Biden recently got wiped out. And anyone who sold high on Harris missed out.
Trump remains atop the board
However, the one constant is that Trump remains the favorite to win in November, although the markets suggest the Republican might have fared better against Biden than Harris. Trump's odds to win the presidential election shortened to -275 at bet365 following the attempt on his life in Pennsylvania earlier this month, before settling at -200 after Biden's withdrawal announcement this weekend.
The tightening for Trump might have to do with the prospect of facing a more youthful candidate in the general election. The Republican Party has already expended considerable time and energy attacking Biden, and all for naught now, perhaps.
“So, we are forced to spend time and money on fighting Crooked Joe Biden, he polls badly after having a terrible debate, and quits the race,” Trump wrote on the Trump Media & Technology Corp.-owned Truth Social platform on Sunday. “Now we have to start all over again.”
