Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential odds held steady after selecting Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate Monday.
Harris remains a consensus +110 underdog, trailing former President Donald Trump, whose odds ranged from -138 to as much as a -150 favorite at regulated sportsbooks.
Sportsbooks’ vice president odds for Walz were as much as -300 in the hours before the announcement. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was the next closest contender at around +225.
Not surprisingly, Kamala Harris' selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Waltz as her running mate has not moved presidential election betting markets; Donald Trump remains the favorite at between -150 to -138 at Canadian books; Harris remains at +110
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) August 6, 2024
The selection ended the most truncated vice presidential selection process in contemporary US political history.
President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race on July 21. This left incumbent Vice President Harris less than a month to announce her running mate ahead of the Aug. 19 start of the Democratic National Convention.
Shapiro emerged as the clear favorite in the hours after Biden dropped out. Though odds fluctuated in the ensuing weeks, he was still the favorite as recently as Monday.
Other leading contenders included Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, the latter of whom announced comparatively early in the race he would not seek the nomination.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was a 33/1 underdog to be Kamala Harris' VP candidate as recently as July 23. Those odds shortened to -300 this morning, and news broke shortly after that Walz was the pick. pic.twitter.com/ZddrfmyQue
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) August 6, 2024
Walz wasn’t even considered a top contender in the eyes of bookmakers at the start of the “veepstakes.” He was as low as a 33-1 underdog as recently as July 23 before his odds steadily improved in the ensuing weeks.
Walz's background
Walz's selection atop a major party’s presidential ticket continues a meteoric rise that could see him go from public school teacher to one heartbeat from the presidency.
A Nebraska native, Waltz served in the Army National Guard and spent a decade as a high school teacher after moving to Minnesota. He upset a Republican incumbent in the 2006 race for Minnesota’s first Congressional District and was re-elected to his seat for five more terms.
Walz won the Minnesota governorship in 2018 and was re-elected in 2022. He has been touted by local and national media for his effective political leadership and legislative accomplishments despite his party having only a narrow majority in the state legislature.
The selection of Walz, a Midwestern native with a blue-collar upbringing, is being viewed by pundits as a way to compliment Harris, a Californian attorney.
Election odds impact
Democrats hope Walz’s selection atop the ticket will continue a robust start to Harris’ presidential campaign.
After reaching a nadir midway through July, Democrats have seen their odds at keeping the White House skyrocket since Biden left the race. Trump was as much as a -275 favorite shortly after announcing JD Vance as his running mate ahead of the 2024 RNC convention; his odds have steadily slipped in the wake of Harris’ campaign and Trump’s handling of his new opponent.
Vance’s selection has also drawn scrutiny, with some national media outlets questioning if Trump should replace him on the ticket. Harris had agreed to debate Vance when she was at the bottom of the ticket and it appears Walz would be positioned to do the same now that he is in that role.
Political consensus holds that the 2024 election will depend on the presidential candidates, not their running mates.
Like Harris in the immediate aftermath of Walz's selection, Trump saw no odds shift by selecting Vance. A VP selection is largely considered fodder for the punditry class, not something that sways the opinions of the average voter.
