There was a time when the most hyped pitching prospect of this decade was such an overwhelming favorite in the MLB Rookie of the Year odds that it wasn’t worth betting. That time has passed.
Three weeks ago, FanDuel listed Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes at -5000 to take home the first-year National League honor.
When bettors woke up Wednesday morning, not only was Skenes no longer a longshot. he was no longer favored.
San Diego Padres’ hot-hitting outfielder Jackson Merrill is currently the front-runner at -120 odds to take home the award, according to FanDuel. Skenes is listed second at -105.
Remember when Paul Skenes was an overwhelming favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year? Yeah, that was like three weeks ago. Here’s the latest odds @FDSportsbook: pic.twitter.com/Ncg6WFNYVT
— Brad Senkiw (@BradSenkiw) August 21, 2024
DraftKings, however, still gives Skenes the slight nod at -120 with Jackson at -105 while Skenes is still holding on to -145 odds at BetMGM.
How they got here
Skenes has been electric since being called up on May 11. He sports a 7-2 record with a 2.30 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 98 innings pitched.
Two months into his Big League career, Skenes joined Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan as the only two MLB pitchers ever to have two outings with at least six no-hit innings and 11 strikeouts in each.
A few days later, with an ERA of 1.90, Skenes became the first rookie selected in the previous summer’s draft to start the MLB All-Star Game.
Rookie of the Year looked like a foregone conclusion until Merrill, who’s hitting .289 with 17 home runs and 69 RBIs, and the Padres caught fire. The 2021 first-round selection has 18 hits and four home runs through 16 games in August, and the Padres have won 21 of their last 26 games.
Where it’s gone
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the consensus front-runner to win NL Rookie of the Year before the season began, but the native of Japan has been out since June 16 with a strained rotator cuff.
Before his May debut, Skenes was +2,500 in the NL ROY market.
A week ago, Skenes was -450 to win the award. A couple of days ago, Skenes was still listed at -200 at DraftKings and bet365 and -210 at FanDuel.
Merrill jumped from +145 to the new favorite. He’s 7-of-20 with five RBIs at the plate in the last five games.
There’s a massive gap after Merrill and Skenes in the NL ROY market.
