Prediction market operator Kalshi – and the business of betting and hedging on events like elections and economic data releases – now has the official backing of Trumpworld.
Donald Trump Jr. announced Monday on X/Twitter that he is joining Kalshi as a “strategic advisor.”
The incoming president’s son said they had consulted the company's prediction markets during Election Night “to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media.”
On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market @Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media.
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) January 13, 2025
I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission. Today, I am proud to…
Kalshi users were indeed projecting a Trump victory this past November via millions of dollars in trading in election-related event contracts. That forecasting has evidently won them, and perhaps other prediction market operators, support among Republicans and the Trump family itself.
“I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission,” Trump Jr. wrote on Monday. “The Kalshi team has worked hard, sued the Biden administration, and achieved the impossible feat of becoming the first legal prediction market in the US. I'm excited to be a part of what they're building.”
“Now,” he added, “time to trade on whether Biden is going to pardon Fauci and Liz Cheney 🤣.”
We're gonna win so much you're gonna get tired of winning
Trump Jr.’s advice and standing with the incoming Trump administration looks like another win for Kalshi, which is federally regulated and still fighting for the right to offer election betting in the courts against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the matter later this week. However, Kalshi has prevailed thus far and continues to offer a variety of event contracts, dozens of which touch on politics.
The Trump endorsement also follows the announcement last week that the CFTC’s current chairman will step down on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.
Rostin Behnam opposed Kalshi’s election contracts. He also continued to warn about the boom in event-contract wagering on U.S. election odds and otherwise in his last official speech as the regulator’s chairman.
“What matters is the proposition that when derivatives trading occurs on an organized exchange subject to strictly enforced rules and oversight, and within a system of effective self-regulation, there should be no mistaking the experience for gaming, gambling, or anything less than the bustling throws of commerce,” Behnam said last week.
Behnam’s departure removes an opponent of election betting through federally regulated exchanges like Kalshi. His Trump-appointed successor could be much more approving of prediction market operators and give them a freer hand to offer whatever event contracts they want. If anything, a rule proposed under Behnam’s watch that would explicitly outlaw contracts concerning elections and sporting events may now never be finalized.
I couldn’t be more excited to welcome @DonaldJTrumpJr to Kalshi.
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) January 13, 2025
Prediction markets have the potential to be the largest financial market and a powerful source of truth.
I can’t think of anyone better to help drive this mission.
Let's build 🇺🇸 https://t.co/AU90K8bGn2
In the meantime, prediction markets are expanding following Kalshi’s success in court last year and ahead of the change in leadership at the CFTC. Kalshi’s menu continues to grow, and users can now buy and sell contracts regarding the next head coach of NFL teams like the Chicago Bears or for which companies will run Super Bowl ads.
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s co-founder, told the Wall Street Journal that Trump Jr. would provide advice as the company prepares to “aggressively expand” its operations.
The expansion efforts are not limited to Kalshi either, as Crypto.com recently added sports event trading to its repertoire. The company has already begun expanding that business.
Robinhood has also voiced an interest in offering a similar form of online sports betting. Furthermore, DraftKings, a state-regulated online sportsbook operator, is mulling over opportunities for itself in the prediction-market business.
