The tradition and allure of March Madness have long been the upsets that occur during the first and second rounds of the men’s NCAA tournament.
Coming out of the first weekend, though, Cinderella is no more. No mid-majors made it to the Sweet 16 and no double-digit favorites were eliminated, leading to parlay victories in the sports betting market.
“Without many upsets, bettors found success on moneyline parlays with favorites to start the NCAA Tournament,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said on Monday. “UConn covering was the best result of the early rounds for the sportsbook. BetMGM is cheering for at least one upset in each round moving forward to break up parlays.”
In the first round, favorites covered 19 of the 32 games with eight spread underdogs winning outright. Favorites were 7-8-1 in the second round with three moneyline underdogs cashing on Saturday and just two on Sunday, but none were massive odds payouts.
“Overall, it’s been a choppy tournament for the house, as we’ve won the important decisions but have only had one major elimination with St. John’s,” Rich Zanco, head of college hoops at Caesars Sportsbook, told Covers on Monday. “Bettors have been all over the SEC and with Arkansas, it was no different against Rick Pitino.
“Most of the big-handle games have gone over the total, so bettors have reaped the rewards for the most part, especially with parlays in this first weekend of March Madness.”
Weekend recap
Favorites were 36-12 straight up and 26-22 against the spread while unders won the totals battle 27-20-1 in the NCAA tournament’s opening two rounds.
Only four conferences are represented in the Sweet 16, the lowest ever.
Arkansas and Ole Miss were the only two underdogs in both rounds to advance to the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks and McNeese State were the two biggest underdogs at +7 each to win outright over the weekend.
Colorado State had a chance to win as a +8 underdog on Sunday, but Maryland hit a buzzer beater to win as a -400 favorite.
All four No. 1 seeds – Duke, Auburn, Florida, and Houston – and three of the four No. 2 seeds – Alabama, Tennessee, and Michigan State – made it past the first two rounds.
Drake had one of the bigger upsets of the opening weekend against Missouri, but the Bulldogs lost by 13 as a 7.5-point underdog to Texas Tech.
“Days 2 and 3 of the tourney have seen much more chalk results with favs holding very steady, and only a few smaller upsets, which has been good for many moneyline parlay tickets, and favorite backers in general, as well as keeping more brackets alive,” said bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth.
Big cashes
A New York bettor took full advantage of the lack of upsets with a 15-team parlay at Caesars Sportsbook that included six favorites of -190 or higher. The $60 wager paid out $145,816.
WHAT A WIN 🤯
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) March 24, 2025
A bettor in New York turned $60 into $145,816.32 on a 15-leg College Basketball parlay 🤑
Kentucky ML (+105)
Michigan State ML (-345)
Florida ML (-550)
Arizona ML (-190)
Tennessee ML (-225)
Purdue ML (-260)
Alabama ML (-225)
Ole Miss +5 (-110)… pic.twitter.com/7jYFUAZLHO
Another bettor in the Empire State made $22,538 on a $40 12-team parlay.
A bettor in New York turned $40 into $22,538.22 on a 12-leg College Basketball parlay 🤑
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) March 24, 2025
Alabama ML (-225)
Kentucky ML (+105)
Tennessee ML (-225)
Michigan State ML (-345)
Arizona ML (-190)
Purdue ML (-260)
Creighton-Auburn OVER 151 (-110)
Gonzaga-Houston OVER 139.5 (-110)… pic.twitter.com/5akBKIDCiV
Futures market
The No. 1-seed Duke Blue Devils were one of the most impressive teams of the first two rounds, beating Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor by a combined 67 points.
A bettor in New York wagered $18K on the Duke ML (-900) 😈
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) March 23, 2025
Potential Win: $2K pic.twitter.com/3yBSCFUgFt
Sportsbooks would’ve loved an early exit.
Duke is BetMGM’s biggest liability in the futures market to win the NCAA championship with 13.2% of the tickets and 38.3% of the handle. The online sportsbook also reported that there’s a $500,000 wager on the Blue Devils at March Madness odds of +350 to win the title.
Second-seeded Michigan State, BetMGM’s second-biggest liability, made it to the Sweet 16 as well. Fellow No. 2-seed St. John’s, the third biggest liability, was eliminated in the second round by Arkansas on Saturday.
