The lack of upsets in the first two rounds of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament has led to a chalky Sweet 16, but that doesn’t mean bettors aren’t hoping to rekindle some of that underdog magic in the second week that March Madness typically presents early.
“The underdogs are still popular heading into the Sweet 16, especially looking at straight moneyline bets,” said Adrian Horton, ESPN BET’s North American sports trading director. “Rooting for the underdogs is part of what makes March great – and given the relative lack of upsets last weekend, there aren’t many outsized ML prices.”
The online sportsbook’s longest underdog odds are +360 on Arizona, which faces a difficult matchup on Thursday night with 1-seed Duke. The Wildcats are the third most-bet ML team at ESPN BET.
BetMGM reported on Thursday morning that Michigan (+350) is getting the most underdog tickets heading into its Friday night showdown with 1-seeded Auburn. Arkansas is the most-bet underdog on Thursday night with March Madness odds of +200 against Texas Tech.
BYU (+180), which takes on 2-seeded Alabama on Thursday, is third among all underdogs, while Ole Miss (+145) is getting the least amount of love from bettors at BetMGM in its Friday showdown with Michigan State.
At ESPN BET, Michigan (+320) and Purdue (+320) are the two most-bet underdogs by tickets.
Riding No. 1
Heading into Thursday’s Sweet 16 slate, Maryland-Florida is the most-bet game at BetMGM. The 1-seeded Gators are getting 71% of the spread bets and 65% of the handle as a 6.5-point favorite and BetMGM’s most-bet team. DraftKings reported that 80% of the money has come in on Florida, which is getting the most lopsided splits on ESPN BET with 75.7% of the wagers.
In the largest spread of Thursday’s action, Duke (-9.5) has taken 69% of the money at BetMGM – which is second highest among all teams – and DraftKings. Arizona vs. Duke predictions are taking the second-most action behind Maryland vs. Florida predictions at ESPN BET.
Auburn (-9.5) is the least-bet spread team at BetMGM as 78% of the wagers and 73% of the money is on the Wolverines so far. Horton said that is the biggest decision game on Friday for ESPN BET.
“Looking at everything together, our ideal results here would be the favorites winning in close games, but any of the 1-seeds bowing out would make for a very good Round of 16,” Horton said.
The Houston-Purdue spread doesn’t seem to be moving the betting needle yet at sportsbooks, but the 1-seeded Cougars are getting 79% of the money at BetMGM and 59% of the handle at DraftKings as an 8.5-point favorite in Friday’s late game.
Other splits
BYU-Alabama is the second most-bet game at BetMGM and the first on Thursday’s slate. Of the BYU vs. Alabama predictions, the Crimson Tide (-5.5) are getting 57% of the money at DraftKings and a narrow 51% of the tickets at DraftKings and BetMGM.
The Razorbacks (+5.5) are a popular underdog side in the late Thursday game at DraftKings, which has seen 63% of the bets and 56% of the money. However, Texas Tech is getting 59% of the handle at BetMGM.
The only two games with spreads under five points are both set for Friday night. Second-seeded Tennessee is a 4.5-point favorite over Kentucky, but the Wildcats are getting a slight majority of bets and money at both DraftKings and BetMGM, but over 65% of the wagers at ESPN BET.
The tightest spread has Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite over Ole Miss, which won both of its first two NCAA games as an underdog. Bettors are backing the Spartans against the spread as they are getting 75% of the tickets and 68% of the money at BetMGM. DraftKings has seen an even higher 83% of the handle on Michigan State.
Going over
It should come as no surprise where bettors are attacking totals. BetMGM said the majority of bets in every Sweet 16 game is on the over. With a total of 175.5, the showdown between two high-scoring teams, BYU and Alabama, has received the most tickets at BetMGM.
There will be a LOT of offense in this one tomorrow pic.twitter.com/E4rPKRi4El
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) March 26, 2025
With 94% of the handle and 79% of the tickets, over 157.5 in the Maryland-Florida game is second. Arizona-Duke (153.5) has seen 80% of the money and 86% of the bets on the over at BetMGM. That game also has the most lopsided splits at DraftKings, which has taken 91% of the handle on the over.
ESPN BET has seen significant action on Friday’s Purdue-Houston over of 132.5 as well as the Auburn-Michigan over 154.5.
