After greeting thousands on Easter Sunday in St. Peter's Square following Easter Mass, Pope Francis, the 88-year-old Holy Father tasked with bringing the Catholic Church into the 21st century through his ideas of inclusion and equality for all, has passed away.
The Vatican announced early Easter Monday morning that the Holy Father had succumbed to a stroke that led to a coma and subsequent heart failure.
In the announcement of Pope Francis' death by the Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church, Cardinal Cardinal Kevin Farrell, the cardinal eulogized the 266th pope by saying, "He taught us to live the values of the Gospel with fidelity, courage, and universal love, especially in favor of the poorest and most marginalized."
Sticking to the Vatican's tradition of electing a new pope, cardinals from around the world will gather in the conclave to determine who will become the next Pope in the next 15-20 days.
As such, bookmakers have had their say on who that person will be by releasing their Next Pope Odds. Currently, the betting favorite is Cardinal Pietro Parolin at odds of +150.
These are the remaining candidates who could ascend to the most powerful position in the Roman Catholic Church and guide the 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide through what critics call a "very challenging spiritual future."
🕊️ Next Pope odds
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | +150 | 40% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | +300 | 25% |
| Peter Turkson | +600 | 14.3% |
| Matteo Zuppi | +700 | 12.5% |
| Robert Sarah | +800 | 11.1% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | +900 | 10% |
| Péter Erdő | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Mauro Gambetti | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Kevin Farrell | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Reinhard Marx | +2000 | 4/8% |
✝️ Favorites to be the next Pope
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (+150)
The 70-year-old Cardinal Parolin is essentially the Vatican’s top diplomat. Parolin has been the Pope’s right-hand man when it comes to dealing with governments and tricky international issues. He’s got a lot of experience and is known for being steady and practical. If the cardinals want someone who knows how to keep the Church running smoothly and handle delicate situations, which seems to be the case, Parolin is their man.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (+300)
The 67-year-old Cardinal Tagle is known for being warm, approachable, and good at connecting with his flock. He’s from the Philippines, where Catholicism is growing rapidly due in large part to the Cardinal's efforts. Tagle has also worked extensively on spreading the faith around the world. People like him because he focuses on kindness, inclusion, and getting along with other religions. He is often seen as someone who could continue to move the Church in the same compassionate, open direction that Pope Francis had been leading it.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (+600)
Cardinal Peter Turkson is often considered a strong candidate for pope due to his significant global appeal, especially in Africa, where Catholicism is growing rapidly. As the former president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Turkson has a deep understanding of social justice issues, particularly poverty, climate change, and global inequality. His leadership experience in the Vatican and his ability to address complex issues with pastoral care make him an ideal candidate to guide the Church through contemporary challenges.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (+700)
To many, Cardinal Zuppi is a small-town pastor at heart. It would not be a stretch to say that Zuppi shares many of the positive traits of the late former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Zuppi has devoted considerable effort to peace efforts, including initiatives to help resolve conflicts worldwide, and is particularly focused on assisting migrants and other groups that are often overlooked. He was close to Pope Francis and is seen as someone who can bring people together and keep the Church caring about social issues. For those cardinals who want a leader who is both compassionate and a unifier, Zuppi fits the bill.
Cardinal Robert Sarah (+800)
Cardinal Robert Sarah is considered a potential papal candidate due to his strong commitment to traditional Catholic doctrine, his emphasis on reverence and continuity in liturgy during his time as Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship, and his global perspective as an African prelate from a region where the Church is rapidly growing. His personal sanctity, intellectual contributions, and leadership under difficult political conditions have earned him deep respect among traditionalist circles, making him an appealing choice for those who favor a return to more conservative Church values.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+900)
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem since 2020, is regarded as a compelling papal candidate due to his extensive experience in interfaith dialogue, pastoral care in conflict zones, and commitment to the Church's mission of reconciliation. A Franciscan friar fluent in Italian, Hebrew, and English, he has lived in the Holy Land since 1990, serving as Custos of the Holy Land and later as Apostolic Administrator of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem. His leadership during times of tension, including offering himself as a hostage during the Gaza conflict, demonstrates his courage and dedication to peace. Elevated to cardinal in 2023, Pizzaballa embodies the Church's call to universality and dialogue, making him a strong candidate to continue Pope Francis's legacy of outreach and compassion.
Cardinal Péter Erdő (+1000)
Cardinal Erdő is more on the traditional side. He’s a skilled theologian and knowledgeable about Church law. He is respected for adhering to the core teachings of the Church and ensuring that things do not drift too far from tradition. If the cardinals want to maintain a more conservative and doctrinal focus, Erdő would probably be their choice.
🤖 AI prediction for the next Pope
We turned to the enormous computing power of ChatGPT to find out who it thinks will succeed Pope Francis, and it confidently chose Péter Erdő within a matter of seconds, citing his theological expertise and philosophical leanings.
Take a look at ChatGPT's reasoning below:
Erdő is a highly respected canon lawyer and theologian. He earned doctorates in both theology and canon law and has served as a professor and author on Church law. That makes him particularly attractive for a Church that might be looking to shore up doctrinal discipline and clarity after years of internal debate and reform under Pope Francis.
He's also from Hungary, which represents both Eastern Europe and a kind of geopolitical bridge between Western Europe and the increasingly influential Global South. The last few popes have come from Poland, Germany, Argentina, and Italy—but many believe it's time for more Eastern or non-Western representation.
Hungary is part of the post-communist world, which gives Erdő a unique lens on religious freedom, secularization, and cultural transformation. He’s seen as someone who understands the pressures the Church faces in secular and pluralistic societies.
Erdő is often seen as doctrinally conservative, but not divisive. This could appeal to cardinals who are looking for a stabilizing, centrist figure who can balance continuity and correction without sparking polarizing reactions.
If the conclave looks for someone who is:
- Theologically grounded ✅
- Geopolitically strategic ✅
- Doctrinally balanced ✅
- Not a radical departure from either Pope Benedict XVI or Pope Francis ✅
...then Péter Erdő is a very strong contender.
🗳️ How is a new Pope chosen?
When a pope dies or resigns, the process of selecting a new one begins. Cardinals under the age of 80 gather in Rome for a conclave, where they are isolated from the outside world. They meet to discuss the needs of the Church before casting votes in secret.
Each cardinal writes down a name on a paper ballot, and a two-thirds majority is required for someone to be elected pope. If no one wins after several rounds, the process continues, with the ballots burned after each vote. White smoke indicates the election of a new pope, while black smoke means no decision has been made yet.
Once a new pope is elected, the senior cardinal asks him if he accepts the election. If he does, he chooses a papal name and is presented to the world with the announcement, "Habemus Papam!" ("We have a pope!").
Though there are often favorites, the process is unpredictable, and surprises are not uncommon.
📈 Who will the next Pope be?
Next Pope Odds are also available at Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform that operates similarly to the stock exchange. It lets you buy and sell contracts — bets — with other users on real-world events, where you can make predictions on the outright winner.
