Presidential Betting Odds Unchanged After VP Debate

After Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, U.S. presidential betting odds were largely stagnant in one of the few remaining major high-profile events that could shape the race.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remained tied Wednesday at -110 apiece at most regulated Ontario sportsbooks following the debate between their respective running mates. Trump had gained ground in the days preceding the vice presidential debate to secure a virtual tie in the eyes of bookmakers with just over a month before the election.

Polls — and bookmakers — show this remains a close race.

Vance, Walz fail to shift odds

Many major legacy media outlets considered it a roughly even debate between the two candidates with Republican JD Vance earning a slight edge over Democrat Tim Walz. Limited straw polls of small groups of undecided voters tended to favor Vance, per the Washington Post and some other media platforms.

However, most instant polling showed that the majority of voters were sticking with their preferred candidate after the debate.

Analysis by Dan Balz: Vice-presidential debates rarely matter much in presidential campaigns and Tuesday’s clash between Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance may matter less than ever. https://t.co/HMI7GYmYmH

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 2, 2024

Though running mates generate headlines and online discourse, historical and contemporary polling shows a limited correlation between vice presidential candidates and election preference. Most attention — and votes — focus on the two candidates atop the respective tickets.

Neither Trump's selection of Vance, an author and first-term Ohio senator, nor Harris' choice of Walz, a second-term Minnesota governor and former congressman, impacted betting odds at the time. 

Few scheduled events remain

Tuesday’s VP debate is one of the few remaining scheduled political events that pundits believe could shift voters’ opinions and the associated betting odds.

The June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden sparked calls from Democrats for the incumbent to drop out. Harris’ performance against Trump in their debate in September helped give her as much as a -125 to +100 edge over the former president.

Trump has so far declined a second debate against Harris before Election Day Nov. 5. This sets up one or more major unexpected events that could alter the election in the next month, a development pundits have called an “October surprise.”

The 2024 election cycle has already seen plenty of shocking twists. Trump survived an assassination attempt in July, boosting his election betting odds. After delivering his nomination acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention days later, his odds reached their highest point at nearly -250 over Biden.

Biden’s decision to drop out, becoming only the second incumbent president to voluntarily not seek re-election, was even more impactful in the eyes of bookmakers. Harris quickly consolidated Democratic support in the days after Biden left the race, and by the following week she had significantly closed the gap behind Trump.

A series of ensuing polls showed Harris continuing to make progress, reaching the highwater mark of around -125 after she formally secured her party’s presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. She held a steady but narrow lead over Trump in the ensuing weeks, only to Trump close the gap, then fall behind again following their debate.

Harris’ lead has again narrowed to a tie at sportsbooks to begin October.

Most leading national and state-specific polls give Harris a slight edge. Polls show the majority of likely voters have already made their decision, but the narrow gap between the two candidates means a major political (or non-political) event could have a significant impact on the election’s outcome.

For now, it appears that does not include the lone debate between the two candidates’ running mates.

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