Two traditional powerhouses are meeting in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, and sportsbooks are rooting for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes opened as 9.5-point favorites over Notre Dame, but the spread came down to 8.5 during the 10-day window between the semifinals and the last game of the season scheduled for Monday night in Atlanta.
“We saw some early action on Notre Dame at +9.5, but it’s been largely Ohio State since we moved in a point last Sunday,” said Adrian Horton, ESPN BET North American sports trading director. “Entering game day, we’ve got a majority of tickets and about 70% of money on OSU, so a Buckeyes win by a touchdown or less would be our ideal result as things stand now.”
The online sportsbook also said 53.1% of the Ohio State vs. Notre Dame predictions and bets, and 69.7% of the handle, is on the Buckeyes, who are also getting 62.1% but a slight 50.8% of the moneyline wagers at -400.
Even though Ohio State is the sportsbook’s biggest liability in the national title winner market with 17.3% of the tickets and 29.8% of the handle, BetMGM still needs the Buckeyes.
The online operator reported 55% of the bets and 64% of the handle is backing Ohio State on the spread. However, the operator is concerned about the moneyline wagers as 83% of the tickets came in on Notre Dame as of Monday morning.
The moneyline handle is split evenly at 50/50, but BetMGM expects that to change.
“If you include the futures market, we’ll be fine with either team taking home the trophy, but Notre Dame moneyline betting will surely become an overall negative result by kickoff,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle told Covers.
Regional wagering
bet365 noted an interesting regional betting trend last week. According to the provided data at the time, 36% of moneyline bets placed in Indiana were on Notre Dame, which received just 28% of spread wagers.
Bettors in Ohio, meanwhile, were getting down on the Buckeyes with 80% of the moneyline bets and 82% of spread wagers.
“The data tells us that the Ohio State backers from Ohio definitely see much more faith in their team’s covering -8 with 82%, where the Indiana-based action, though it is liking a straight-up ND win more than other regions, is still seeing an Ohio St -8 cover, with only 28% on the Irish +8,” bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth said.
Prime Sports reported similar support for bettors in Ohio. But sharp bettors are targeting a different angle.
“While the public is divided on who will win tonight (though our handle in Ohio is very one-sided in favor of the Buckeyes), sharps are locked in on the Irish (+9),” Prime Sports’ Joe Brennen Jr. told Covers. “We are looking at a number of respected players holding ND tickets anywhere from +10 to +8. For Prime, the best result tonight would be an OSU win by 11 or more, or an outright Notre Dame win.”
Other game markets
It’s no surprise, but the sportsbooks are also rooting for the under. The point total of 45.5 is getting 71% of the bets and 74% of the handle at BetMGM. ESPN BET reported similar splits with 79.5% of the tickets and 73.4% of the money coming in on the over.
Bettors love betting Jeremiyah Love in the Ohio State vs. Notre Dame player props. The Irish running back was banged up in the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia but played against Penn State and said last week he was healthy.
Love leads three different markets in wagers at BetMGM. The under on Love’s rushing total of 42.5 yards (-115) is the most-bet player prop, ahead of Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka’s over 59.5 receiving yards.
Love leads all players in the anytime touchdown market (+140). Ohio State freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith is second at -140, followed by teammate and running back Treveyon Henderson (-105), Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (+125), and Egbuka (+145).
At +800, Love to score the first touchdown of the game is the most popular bet in that market, followed by Smith at +450 and Henderson at +600.
