The addition of a significant state, the maturing of wagering in another, harder-to-grasp jurisdiction, and the killing bettors made this NFL season could nudge legal sports betting on this year’s Super Bowl toward $2 billion in regulated action in the United States.
It's indeed that time of year again, the week of the Big Game, the preeminent gambling event for North American bettors and bookmakers.
Estimates already emerged predicting legal sports betting on Super Bowl odds will fly past the billion-dollar mark. If you're rounding up, some of those estimates suggest U.S. handle could even be closer to $2 billion than $1 billion.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) is expected to release its annual forecast this week as well, which continues to tick up along with the growth of regulated wagering.
Investment bank Citizens JMP is forecasting $1.75 billion in legal sports betting on the Super Bowl this year, or 13% of the handle for February. pic.twitter.com/PDdyeIu9Kg
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) January 29, 2025
Research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming forecast $1.5 billion in total legal U.S. betting handle for Super Bowl LIX, “based on historical trends and recent state handle data.”
“The estimate is around 20% higher than our projection last year and is a meaningful jump—indeed, in 2024 we had the Super Bowl accounting for 10.4% of February handle, compared to 11.2% this year,” the EKG analysts wrote last week. “The increase in our number is partially because we under-projected Super Bowl handle last year—handle that may have been boosted somewhat by the outlier-y Taylor Swift effect and record TV viewing figures.”
Another estimate comes from investment bank Citizens JMP, which said it's modeling for $1.75 billion in legal wagering on the Super Bowl this year, or 13% of the February handle.
“North Carolina is the only active online sports betting state that was not live for the Super Bowl last year; therefore, we expect promotional investment to be down [year-over-year] while the industry faces an easy comp with an unfavorable outcome in 2024,” JMP analyst Jordan Bender wrote last week.
So, respected industry thinkers projected $1.5 billion to $1.75 billion in Super Bowl-related handle. That accounts for recent trends in state-level data, Taylor Swift, and the launch of online sports betting in North Carolina last March.
The bull case for Super Bowl betting
These projections were made before bettors placed the biggest Super Bowl bets. We at Covers also see room for upside to those projections, which, based on estimates already making the rounds, would put a $2-billion Super Bowl within reach.
For starters, it's not like the NFL has become less popular. This year's AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills was reportedly the most-watched one yet, with CBS clocking more than 57 million viewers.
The "record TV viewing figures" noted by EKG for last year's Super Bowl are there to be broken again, even if Taylor Swift's novelty is wearing off.
The Florida factor
Also, who can really say how much bettors will wager in Florida? The state remains the sole legal domain of the Seminole Tribe and its Hard Rock Bet app, but there are no monthly or weekly reports that provide insight into how much handle or revenue is being generated.
What statistics there are, though, suggest a healthy chunk of action on SB LIX could come from the Sunshine State.
JMP reported recently users downloaded Hard Rock Bet around 80,000 times during the NFL's Conference Championship week. That was down 11% from a year ago, but enough to put HRB's download share among North American iGaming apps at around 11% this season.
What’s more, bettors downloaded Hard Rock nearly 1.9 million times this NFL year, up from 1.3 million times during 2023-24's campaign, according to JMP and Sensor Tower. This covers downloads in Florida, but also Illinois, Arizona, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Still, the more than 40% download growth could translate into more Super Bowl-related handle in Florida this year compared to last. At that point, Hard Rock Bet was only relaunched for around three months due to legal battles the Seminole Tribe ultimately won in its favor.
Money to burn
Bettors also won more this year than in seasons past. In January, FanDuel-parent Flutter Entertainment reported the 2024-25 NFL season “has been the most customer friendly since the launch of online sports betting with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years."
The friendliness came at a cost for sportsbooks, with Flutter reporting U.S. revenue was expected to be around $370 million lower than previously anticipated.
“Specifically, the high-scoring (40-34) match between the (Detroit) Lions and (San Francisco) 49ers on Dec. 30, which featured nine unique touchdown scorers, cost Flutter $74m,” analysts at investment bank Jefferies wrote in a note to clients.
Going green
This is just one operator, although the largest in the U.S. online sports betting industry. But less revenue for FanDuel and other operators means more for bettors who likely put their winnings back into play at some point, especially during the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl.
That’s backed up by some of the data out of New York, which issues weekly reports on its online sports betting handle and revenue. The same week FanDuel and others got whacked by the Lions-49ers on Monday night, New Yorkers bet more than $600 million using licensed apps, an all-time high for the state.
“We view 4Q24 as a positive for the long-term health of the U.S. industry—customers, after all, need to win every so often to keep them engaged and enjoying the OSB product,” Eilers & Krejcik said last month. “Further, we expect significant recycling in 1Q25 as customers deploy healthy balances.”
Some of that “recycling” no doubt took place during the NFL playoffs, and perhaps in a losing cause, such as the Lions’ loss to the Commanders in the Divisional Round. But if winnings remain, the Super Bowl is an ideal spot to redeploy them, and perhaps in addition to what bettors would usually wager.
