Donald Trump’s odds to become President of the United States remained unchanged after the announced selection of JD Vance as his 2024 presidential running mate.
Trump’s two likeliest opponents for the presidency, sitting President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, saw their odds remain static as well.
Who is JD Vance?
Trump gave little clear indication Vance would be his nominee beyond including him among a loose group of rumored candidates. There was little noise leading up to the announcement as Trump, uncharacteristically, was content to put the media spotlight on Biden as questions swirled about his fitness for office.
Vance was introduced as Trump’s running mate during this week’s Republican National Convention, where later in the week the pair will accept the party’s formal nomination.
Vance is in his first term as a senator from Ohio. He gained national prominence for his 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which detailed cultural and economic issues in his hometown of Middletown, Ohio. He was a Trump critic during the 2016 election cycle but has since established himself as one of his most vociferous defenders on Capitol Hill and in the media.
He topped North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who were reportedly the other finalists for the position.
Burgum is in his second term as North Dakota’s governor. He ran for president earlier this year but gained little traction in the polls and dropped out before the first primary votes.
Rubio, in his third term as a Florida senator, was considered a rising Republican star heading into the 2016 presidential campaign where he was ultimately topped by Trump for the party’s presidential nomination. The son of Cuban-born immigrants, Rubio has been touted by the media as an advisor to Trump on Latin American affairs.
Loyalty was the one clear factor Trump considered when picking a running mate. He turned on Mike Pence, who served during Trump’s first term between 2017 and 2021, after the then-Vice President refused to help overturn the 2020 election results.
Trump is facing multiple federal felony charges around his involvement in efforts to overturn the election. Earlier this year he was convicted by a New York court of more than 30 felonies for falsifying business records. He also faces criminal charges in Georgia for efforts to overturn voting results. A Florida court case for mishandling classified documents was thrown out Monday.
Overview of odds movement
Trump’s legal charges have not dented his seemingly intransient base of support. He saw his polling support grow — and with it, his odds to be President — after the four separate criminal cases were introduced in 2022.
He maintained a steady if slight lead over Biden, the incumbent, for much of the year’s first half. Trump saw a significant spike in late June after Biden’s performance in a one-on-one debate led to renewed concerns about the current president’s mental acuity.
Those odds improved again following last Saturday's assassination attempt before FanDuel Canada pulled their U.S. election odds.
Biden, 81, is the oldest presidential officeholder. Trump, 78, would eclipse that record if he wins in 2024 and finishes out his term.
The two candidates’ ages — and the recent violent attack on Trump — have put unprecedented media attention on their respective vice presidents. This has, so far, not led to significant changes in the bookmakers’ calculations for who will win the presidency.
