How do you put a price on history? For oddsmakers, another serious incident during the U.S. election campaign has them keeping calm and continuing to take action.
On Sunday, the FBI said it is investigating “what appears to be an attempted assassination” of former president Donald Trump in Florida.
U.S. Secret Service agents reportedly opened fire on a would-be gunman near Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach after spotting a rifle barrel. A suspect was later arrested and now faces criminal charges.
The apparent assassination attempt would be the second on the former president’s life in recent months, following a shooting at a Butler, Pennsylvania rally in July. One person was killed and the Republican candidate was wounded during the incident, which was condemned by President Joe Biden, Trump’s election competition at the time.
A sensitive wagering subject
Some of Trump’s polling numbers improved following the Butler shooting, and U.S. election odds at least partly reflected that fact.
Following the Republican National Convention in July, Trump was a -225 favorite to win back the White House in November or an implied probability of victory of 69.23%.
The July shooting also prompted a few regulated sportsbooks in Ontario, where election wagering is legal, to cease taking action on the race. BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel stopped taking bets on the election in Canada's most populous province in the aftermath of the assassination attempt.
“In light of recent events, FanDuel has made the decision to suspend its US election markets,” a spokesperson for the bookmaker told Covers on July 15.
FanDuel’s election markets are still suspended. However, several other bookmakers made a different call and continued to take bets on the presidential election following the Butler shooting.
“We've been taking political bets for over 100 years and it takes a large-scale integrity issue or suspicious betting patterns to halt a market,” said William Woodhams, chief executive officer of Fitzdares, in an email to Covers. “Elections are about freedom and being able to wager freely on them is part and parcel of that process. I think Mr. Trump would support us keeping the market open.”
Not sure when this happened exactly, but DraftKings Sportsbook has odds back up in Ontario for the U.S. election. Similar pricing as elsewhere, with Harris the fave and Trump an even-money underdog: pic.twitter.com/nHB6F70d38
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) September 16, 2024
BetMGM would eventually re-offer election wagering. Last week, DraftKings followed suit. The Boston-based bookmaker had a single U.S. election-related betting market - who will win the White House - up in Ontario as of Monday afternoon.
But unlike in July, both BetMGM and DraftKings kept their markets live in Ontario on Monday following Sunday's news. There have been no noticeable changes on the oddsboard either.
At DraftKings in Ontario, for instance, Vice President Kamala Harris was a -125 favorite as of Monday afternoon and Trump an even-money underdog to win the presidency. That was more or less the case last week when Covers canvassed the oddsboards after Tuesday’s debate on ABC.
A spokesperson for Stake told Covers on Sunday that the site saw "a wave of bettors" who seized on Harris' debate performance, with 45% of tickets and 61% of money during the event coming in on the veep. Even so, the bulk of bets and handle are riding on Trump.
"After the uptick in Harris bets during the debate, we have seen a return to expected split with 70% of tickets and 85% of money on Trump," the Stake spokesperson said.
Vox parlay
As November draws nearer, interest in election wagering is growing, despite some legal hiccups in the U.S., where sportsbook-style betting on politics remains offside.
Betfair, notably, has said a new wagering record is possible this election cycle.
“In the past 24 hours, most money was bet on Harris, with just over £543K wagered on her winning the White House, while for Trump the amount was £323K,” the U.K.-based betting exchange said Monday on its election blog.
