5 MLB Futures Bets to Target After All-Star Break

The 2023 Major League Baseball season has hit its unofficial midway point. And with a few days off for the All-Star break, we can take a moment to assess the baseball betting landscape and try to find some value in some second-half futures.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the class of the American League all season, but some cracks are starting to show in their armor. Is there value in backing someone else to win the tough AL East? And who will win the war of attrition — and mediocrity — in the AL Central? 

But maybe the most important question of all. How many 100-loss teams will there be in baseball this year? I've sifted through the litany of MLB odds to find some bright futures to target as the All-Star break nears its conclusion. 

Let's start this off with what I know best, and that's the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays were a weird baseball team in the first half.

Bluebirds finally fly

The Toronto Blue Jays entered the All-Star break with a 50-41 record, which is the best mark they've had at the unofficial midway point in each of the last three seasons. But by all accounts, Toronto has not lived up to expectations.

Led by Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and the rejuvenated Jose Berrios, the pitching has generally been solid, even with Opening Day starter Alek Manoah getting sent down to the minors for a month thanks to being, well, terrible.

But the lineup has not performed the way many would have expected heading into the season. The Jays' biggest struggles have come with runners in scoring position and producing against lefties. And that apparent inability to come up with the big hit has cost them, at least against AL East teams.

The Blue Jays are a stunning 7-20 against division opponents and 43-21 against the rest of MLB. Like I said, weird.

That said, there is room for improvement right now. Manoah showed some promise in his return to the big leagues, the hitting looks like it is starting to come around, and this front office has proven in the past that it's willing to make moves to improve the team at the trade deadline. 

Right now, FanGraphs is projecting the Blue Jays to finish at 89-73. That's what their current winning percentage has them on pace for. Their updated season win total is sitting at 89.5. But I have to believe there will be some progress against AL East teams and in their overall performance as well, whether it's through roster moves or simply improved play combined with better luck. The Over being at +105 is enough to back the Jays to improve in the second half.

Pick: Blue Jays Over 89.5 regular season wins (+105 at DraftKings)

Crab cakes and a division title on the menu

Let’s stick in the American League East — without a doubt the best division in baseball — for a moment. The Boston Red Sox are 48-43 at the All-Star break, which would be good for a 2.5-game lead in the AL Central (more on that later), but has them stuck in the AL East cellar. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the class of the American League to this point. They got off to an incredible start and entered the break with a sterling 58-35 record. But there are definitely some cracks starting to show in the Rays’ facade. 

That’s partly because the pitching staff has been devastated by injuries. Drew Rasmussen, Jeffery Springs, and Shane Baz are all out for the season. Josh Fleming is out until at least August. And now ace Shane McClanahan is out indefinitely with a back injury.

That stress on the staff means the bullpen has been nowhere near as effective as we’ve seen in years past. In fact, Tampa Bay relievers have the seventh-worst xFIP in baseball. 

On top of that, the lineup full of overachievers is coming back down to Earth, to the point where they only have a two-game lead on the Baltimore Orioles.

The O’s also weren’t playing their best baseball heading into the break, but there is no doubt the potential for this team is sky-high. The lineup is loaded with young talent and the bullpen is elite. What they are missing is starting pitching but they also have arguably the deepest farm system in baseball, stocked full of top prospects they can move for starting pitching.

The Orioles remind me a lot of the 2014-15 Kansas City Royals. They are going to be a problem for years, including this one, and there is some value in them to win the AL East at +400.

Pick: Orioles to win AL East (+400 at DraftKings)

A Central concern

The American League Central is in the running for one of the worst divisions in the history of baseball. Currently, the Cleveland Guardians lead the way with a 45-45 record, a half-game ahead of the Minnesota Twins who sit at 45-46. 

Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Royals have combined for a run differential of -308. 

So, basically, it’s a two-horse race for the Central Division title and since it exists and hasn't been rightfully disbanded, we are forced to crown a champion. That has me looking at the Guardians. 

Cleveland got off to a tough start thanks in large part to a handful of injuries to the starting rotation and sat seven games below .500 back on June 2. But the Guardians have gotten healthy and have gone 20-13 since.

They’ve also been a much better-hitting team than the Twins lately. Since June 1, they have the second-highest batting average in baseball (.277) and rank 14th in OPS and 11th in wRC+. 

The other edge the Guardians have over the Twins is that they have an extra four games against the worst division in baseball: The Central! It could all come down to six matchups between these two in nine games at the end of August and into September. 

The Guardians have the better lineup, the is pitching catching up, and they have the better manager in Terry Francona. They look like the more well-rounded of the teams atop this garbage division. I’m betting Cleveland wins a second consecutive division title.

Pick: Guardians to win AL Central (+130 at DraftKings)

From hit king to MVP candidate

Let’s get this out of the way first. I think Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to win the National League MVP. If he gets a 40-40 season, it’s a done deal. And he already has 41 steals. So, basically, it’s a countdown for 19 home runs. 

But! If some unforeseen thing should happen like an injury or a massive slump, then there may be a little more value in the NL MVP odds market than once thought. And looking at the board, something Luis Arraez to win MVP at +3,500 jumps out at me.

The Miami Marlins second baseman needs a couple of things to happen to make this a reality. One, he needs to be the first player since 1948 to hit .400 in a season. Two, he needs to total over 200 hits. And three, he needs the Marlins to win at least 90 games. 

Arraez is baseball’s best contact hitter and he’s having a fantastic season. But he went into a little slump at the end of the first half to drop his batting average to a paltry .383. However, he looked great in Seattle, getting two knocks in the All-Star Game.

Hitting .400 is tough. No one has done it in a 150+ game season since Ted Williams in 1941. The closest anyone has come since is Tony Gwynn, who hit .394 in a strike-shortened 1994 season. Since the year 2000, the highest batting average in a season was .372, accomplished by Nomar Garciaparra, Todd Helton, and Ichiro. 

But if anyone can do it, it’s Arraez. That’s because he doesn’t miss pitches in the zone, and he almost never strikes out. He is basically a soft-contact god. 

As I said, it’s highly unlikely, but if he can somehow get that magic .400, he’s going to get some MVP votes. And +4,200 looks like good value. 

Pick: Luis Arraez to win NL MVP (+4,200 at FanDuel)

Joining the century club

Let’s go with a hilarious one to close this thing out. Typically, in baseball, it’s hard to win or lose 60% of your games. But that’s not holding true for a few teams this season and brings us to a “How many teams will have 100 or more losses” bet. Well, the Oakland Athletics and Royals are pretty much locks.

The A’s are a horrendous 25-67 this season — a .272 winning percentage — and are on pace for 118 losses and one of the worst seasons in MLB history. But the Royals aren’t far behind at 26-65, on pace for a 46-116 regular season.

So, basically, it would require some sort of miracle for those two to finish below triple-digit losses. 

That brings us to our third biggest loser candidate. The Colorado Rockies are 34-57, which puts them at a 101-loss pace. But the Rockies are an interesting team. They, as always, are a better team when playing at Coors Field — 20-24 this season. 

That also means they have more home games than road ones in the second half and it is reasonable to expect them to play near .500 baseball in those remaining games in Denver, particularly when you consider they have matchups against the A’s, White Sox, and Cubs. 

If they can grab 19 wins at home, they would need just 10 on the road in the second half to secure a 63-win season. And with trips to Washington, St. Louis, and Chicago on the docket I think they can get there. 

Pick: Number of teams to record 100+ losses — 2 (+235 at DraftKings)

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