Angels vs Astros Picks and Predictions: Ohtani is Houston's Problem Tonight

The Los Angeles Angels (7-5) and Houston Astros (6-5) meet Wednesday night for the rubber match of their three-game series.

This will mark the seventh time this season the teams have faced off, with the Astros holding the 4-2 advantage.

Jake Odorizzi will be on the bump for the Astros while Shohei Ohtani gets the nod for the Angels. Our free MLB betting picks and predictions investigate if Ohtani can get back on track after a rough start to 2022.

Angels vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

There hasn’t been much line movement since the Astros opened +120. The line currently resides between +110 and +120 depending on the book at the time of this writing. The total hasn’t budged since opening at 8.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Angels vs Astros predictions

• Prediction: Angels ML (-130)
• Prediction: Under 8.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Angels F5 ML (-135)

Picks made on 4/20/2022 at 7:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Angels vs Astros game info

• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Wednesday, April 20, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet Southwest, Bally Sports West

Angels vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shohei Ohtani (0-1, 1.93 ERA): It’s been an unfortunate start to the season for the 2021 AL MVP. Ohtani was last seen on April 14 against the Rangers, surrendering six earned runs over 3 2-3 innings. He’ll look to regain the 2021 form that saw him compile a 9-2 record and 3.18 ERA across 130 1-3 innings. 

Jake Odorizzi (0-0, 4.50 ERA): The veteran right-hander has gotten off to a rough start in 2022 as well, most recently allowing four earned runs over 4 1-3 innings to the Seattle Mariners. He’s mostly an innings-eater at this point in his career and has been for several seasons. In 2021, he compiled a 6-7 record and 4.21 ERA across 104 2-3 innings. There’s nothing about his game that stands out.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Angels: Mike Trout OF (Questionable), David Fletcher SS (Out), Jose Quijada RP (Out), Cooper Criswell RP (Out), Chris Rodriguez RP (Out).
Astros: Jose Altuve 2B (Questionable), Ryan Pressly RP (Out), Taylor Jones 1B (Out), Jake Meyers CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros.

Angels vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This young MLB season feels as if it’s just getting underway, yet the Angels and Astros will already be facing off for the seventh time this season when they meet tonight. The Astros hold the 4-2 season advantage while this three-game series is tied at 1-1.

The Angels will be waiting with bated breath for the return of Mike Trout to the lineup, although his status is up in the air for Wednesday night. Trout was hit on the hand by a pitch on Sunday and received a negative MRI on Monday, meaning there are no broken bones and he’s eligible to return without needing a spell on the IL. 

The Astros are also dealing with uncertainty about a key bat in their lineup as star second baseman Jose Altuve’s status is up in the air after straining his left hamstring Monday night.

The clear pitching advantage in this matchup lies with the Angels, as Shohei Ohtani looks to bounce back after allowing six earned runs in his last outing. Considering his impressive numbers on the bump a year ago (3.18 ERA, 3.52 FIP), we’re not too concerned after one poor outing. The star right-hander strikes out over 11 batters per nine innings and does a good job of limiting home runs (career 1.03 HR/9).

Odorizzi is more of an innings eater. He compiled a 6-7 record and 4.21 ERA a year ago, but some of his peripherals pointed out that he may have been a tad lucky. His 4.66 xERA and 4.82 xFIP signal that some regression may be coming in 2022.

With such a clear pitching advantage, we have to look the Angels’ way. Ohtani is two levels above Odorizzi.

Prediction: Angels moneyline (-130 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Both pitchers have struggled out of the gates in 2022. With Ohtani, there’s reason to expect positive regression. He’ll face off with an Astros lineup that’s been mediocre to begin the season, ranking 17th in wOBA (.303) and 21st in OBP (.297). There’s enough talent in this Houston lineup to expect improvement upon those numbers, but perhaps not Wednesday night against Ohtani.

The Angels’ bats have been hot to begin the year, ranking 5th in wOBA (.343) and getting on base at a high clip (.333 OBP, 7th in the league). The matchup against Odorizzi is nothing to fear, but the Astros have an effective bullpen with a collective 2.98 ERA.

The Angels' offensive stats were possibly padded by a four-game series against the Rangers in which they scored 29 runs. In fact, Tuesday’s 7 runs marked this lineup’s highest output of the season.

The Under is 12-3 in the Astros' last 15 games as a home underdog. We like that trend to continue.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Ohtani is too good of a pitcher to not get back on track at some point this season. We don’t mind his strikeout prop (Over 5.5 is -105 at DraftKings), but Houston has the third-lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) in the league, so we’ll look elsewhere.

You have to lay a few cents of extra juice to back the Angels on the first five innings moneyline, but we believe it’s worth the cost. The Astros have a clear advantage in the bullpen, so we’ll look to stick with the first five innings to capitalize on the Angels' clear starting pitching edge.

Pick: Angels first five innings moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

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