The Toronto Blue Jays are riding a heater ahead of their three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels, which opens tonight at the Rogers Centre. With all the winning the Jays have been doing of late, the bullpen is gassed, and many arms won’t be available. Is this being priced into the side and total?
Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Jays on August 26.
Angels vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as -180 home favorites last night and hasn’t seen any significant movement on the moneyline. The total is starting to see some action as bettors are getting down on the Over that opened at 8.5 and has hit 9 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Angels vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 8/26/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Angels vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Friday, August 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, BSN
Angels vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Reid Detmers (4-4, 3.66 ERA): The left-handed Detmers will see the heavy right-handed lineup of the Jays tonight. He owns a 2.23 ERA over his last seven starts but was roughed up for 10 hits and four runs vs. the lowly Tigers in his last start. The 23-year-old former first-rounder hasn’t faced the Jays this season, while the Halos are 7-12 SU in his 19 starts this year.
Detmers doesn’t sit in the Top 50% in any metric, per baseball savant, and might be pitching above expectations with a 4.21 FIP and a 4.18 xERA.
Mitch White (1-3, 3.63 ERA): White will look to keep the winning streak going tonight but hasn’t had a long leash as the Jays’ No. 5 starter. He hasn’t thrown more than 85 pitches in any of his three starts with Toronto and threw just 73 pitches in his last outing vs. the Yankees. White pitches to contact and sits in the Bottom 10% in Whiff%.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Blue Jays
Angels vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Jays are coming off a sweep of the Red Sox, which included two back-to-back extra-inning wins. Players are starting to feel something happening with the team, but one thing that the momentum won’t help tonight is the state of the bullpen.
With all the winning, the Jays’ bullpen comes in tonight overused, with the majority of the arms likely unavailable. Closer Jordan Romano has pitched on back-to-back days and threw two innings last night. Tim Mayza, Anthony Bass, and Adam Cimber have all pitched on back-to-back days, and middle reliever Trevor Richards threw 30 pitches last night.
Making this a bigger issue is that starter Mitch White does not project to go deep in this game and hasn’t recorded more than 14 outs in any of his three starts with the Jays.
If White is handing things over to the pen, that means freshly outcasted Yusei Kikuchi could be eating some middle innings, and that's something Toronto backers don’t want to hear.
Kikuchi has made two low-leverage appearances from the bullpen since losing his job in the starting rotation. The same command issues have followed him to his new role as he’s walked four of the 11 batters he’s seen.
Yusei Kikuchi threw 28 pitches, a few of which were strikes.
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) August 24, 2022
He had no idea where the baseball was going, walked three batters and hit another. #BlueJays
This could be a game where interim manager John Schneider asks the overpaid lefty to take it on the chin and give the team two or three innings with the pen gassed and White not going deep.
I’d feel much better taking the Jays F5 ML, but there is still some slight value on the visitors at +165 for the full game.
Detmers is a former Top-10 pick that is a solid pitcher to back at this price, and the Angels’ bullpen wasn’t used yesterday and carries the same WAR (1.8) over the last 30 days as the Jays.
It might come late, but the Angels, with a rested Mike Trout back in the lineup, should have some success offensively — especially in the later innings.
Prediction: Angels moneyline (+165 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 8.5 on Thursday night, but after the Jays blew through their bullpen for a second straight day, smart bettors hopped on the Over 8.5, which drove it to 9 at most books by lunchtime today.
Even at the 9, I’m still loving this Over.
Schneider might need to sacrifice a pitcher tonight to get the bullpen back in order, and Kikuchi is the likely candidate. He is currently running out of options, and his new mop-up role has not looked good on him. He might have a higher-leverage appearance tonight, but I’m expecting similar results from the lefty who sits in the Bottom-1% of baseball in HardHit%, average exit velocity, and Barrel%.
We know the Toronto bats can do their share of the heavy lifting with the total as a Top-5 offense. George Springer is 14 for 24 over his last seven games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a hit in 30 of his last 33 games, Matt Chapman has a .915 OPS over his last 30 games, and Alejandro Kirk is 9-for-24 with a .429 OBP over his last seven games.
In his last start, Detmer got roughed up by the Tigers and now faces an infinitely better offense that creates runs off lefties at the third-best rate in baseball.
The Halos’ bullpen is nothing to fear and is a bottom-tier unit itself.
The Jays will get theirs, and with an empty bullpen and their No. 5 starter, they’re probable to give up a handful of runs themselves.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-128 at TonyBet)
Best bet
I’m not getting cute here and think that tonight’s situation with the Toronto bullpen is enough to load up on the Over 8.5 and even 9 if the lower total isn’t available to bettors.
The Jays might only have three arms, max, in the pen tonight, and with White projected to get Under 15 outs, Kikuchi is the man here who will need to eat innings.
Schnedier says the #BlueJays will "tread lightly at first" with Yusei Kikuchi, finding him spots that favour him maychup-wise.
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) August 18, 2022
If there's a hope, it's that Kikuchi's velocity (and whiffs) can tick up, which would help to offset control issues.
He is likely not thrilled with his new role in the bullpen and has zero experience with it — other than 1 2-3 innings of late. He has looked bad in this transition, and he might be the worst pitcher in baseball as his -0.8 WAR ranks dead last in the league (min. 70 innings)
I love this Over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-128 at TonyBet)
