Angels vs Rangers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Offenses Come to Play in Texas

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday night in the Longhorn State. 

After the Angels decided to "go for it" at the trade deadline, it became apparent that this wouldn't work. LA lost several games in a row and has found itself well out of the playoff picture. They've lost the first two games of this series and will be looking to avoid the sweep vs. a Rangers team that is surging once again.

Texas has outscored the Angels 19-3 in the first two games of this series and has won eight of its last 10 games. They now have 3.5 games atop the AL West and looked primed to take the Houston Astros off its proverbial perch for the better part of the last decade.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Angels on Wednesday, August 16th.

Angels vs Rangers odds

Angels vs Rangers predictions

Texas has lit up the scoreboard lately and in this series. 

The Rangers scored 12 and 7 runs, respectively, in the first two games vs. the Angels. It goes along with the pattern of who they've been all season. Texas ranks second in the league in runs per game at 5.86 and first in BABIP. As a home favorite, like it is tonight, its games have gone Over at a clip of 62%, which is one of the highest in the league. You might have guessed it already, but I'm on the Over 9 tonight at -105 over at FanDuel for this evening's best bet.

Jon Gray will take the mound for the Rangers tonight, and he's had a great season, but we're playing a situational angle. 

The right-hander is coming off a great start against the San Francisco Giants, where he posted seven scoreless innings. So many times this season, his best starts have been followed by a bad one. In Mid-June, he posted a scoreless start against the Tampa Bay Rays in 4 1/3 innings. How did he follow that up? By allowing six runs to Houston over five innings. Granted, he was a bit lucky vs. Tampa, as he somehow escaped unscathed despite allowing eight hits.

The Angels don't chase a ton of pitches off the plate, which should cause some headaches for Gray. 

The other side of this is where you see the Over side really strengthen. Reid Detmers will take the mound, and he just hasn't been very good this season. Sure, he's flashed some elite strikeout stuff, but he has more significant issues in this matchup.

One, the Rangers are patient at the plate and can attack his walk rate, which is in the bottom 30% of the league. Along with having the fourth-lowest chase rate in the league, the Rangers also have one of the lowest overall swing rates — sitting ninth at 46.7%. These are teams that Detmers can struggle against. A couple of walks and things tend to cascade on him. That has a decent chance of happening tonight. 

Along with the walk rate, Detmers' hard-hit issues are bound to hurt him tonight. Like most fastball pitches, Detmers gives up too much contact when he's not inducing strikeouts. Tonight will be a significant issue facing one of the best offenses in baseball. The Rangers rank third in hard-hit rate and overall batting average. Detmers has given up too much contact to trust him to keep the runs down against an elite offense.

I projected a double-digit total tonight, so this number has a nice edge. I'll happily back this one to go Over tonight with two pitchers on the mound who are no strangers to giving up runs. 

My best bet: Over 9 (-105 at FanDuel)

Angels vs Rangers same-game parlay

Over 9.5 (+115)

Corey Seager to record an RBI (+160)

Marcus Semien to record a run (-120)

+475 at bet365

As we've talked about numerous times, bet365 doesn't allow you the ability to play flat totals, so we had to expand our best bet of 9 to 9.5 for this same-game parlay. It's well worth the risk, though, especially when you think about how much more value we're getting by comparison. This identical parlay is +384 over at FanDuel. For the rest of it, we will be picking on Detmers.

I'm tagging Corey Seager to record an RBI. Fresh off an incredible five-RBI performance last night, Seager will continue keeping things rolling. He's recorded an RBI in about half of the previous ten games, but considering where he's batting in the lineup and his hitting ability (against a pitcher who gives up too much contact), we like this spot quite a bit. 

Completing things is Marcus Semien to record a run. It's the same principle as above in that this is a play on where Semien hits in the lineup. Simply put, he's likely to get on base, and he has some of the fastball best hitters around him going against a pitcher who throws the fastball over 50% of the time. We expect the Rangers to rack up the runs, and Semien is usually part of the equation. He's crossed home plate in three of the last four games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Angels vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rangers are worth a bet at -170. I rarely lay this must juice, but in this instance, I'm placing a unit on the -170 moneyline over at bet365.

This is a decisive pitching mismatch. 

As I said above, Gray will likely give up a few runs, and Detmers has had some flashes of brilliance. Still, Gray has been more consistent and doesn't have some outstanding issues like Detmers. The walk rate problems are a big issue here. I talked about it some above, but the Rangers are a patient team at the plate.

On the season, they walk the fourth most in the league, and that's a number that has ticked up lately. That aspect looms large tonight, and the constant pressure applied to Detmers on the basepaths will cause him to eventually break and lead the Rangers to build an insurmountable lead. 

As discussed above, I'm on the Over tonight as my best bet. It seems like this Rangers offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and I can't turn a price of -105. Seager said it pretty plainly after his five-RBI performance last night.

"We're just playing good baseball, just trying to win a series like we've talked about all year," Seager said. "Pitching the ball well, we're scoring runs. It's kind of everything you can ask for."

Texas is rolling right now, and I won't stand in front of it from a total or moneyline perspective. The two teams' last 10 meetings have gone Over at a 70% clip with two pushes. In addition to that, the previous two starts for Detmers have both gone Over. 

Trend to know

The Over is 7-1-2 in the last ten meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Rangers

Angels vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Reid Detmers (2-9, 5.27 ERA): Detmers is a bit of an adventure. He carries some swing-and-miss stuff that is downright filthy, with a K rate sitting in the Top 20% of baseball. But then there's everything else, like an ERA over 5.00 to go along with a hard-hit rate that sits at the bottom of MLB. Like most fastball-heavy pitchers, hard contact is a big issue. However, it can be overcome by truly elite strikeout hurlers. The biggest problem for Detmers is that he's made things considerably worse by giving up free passes with a walk rate well below the league average. 

Jon Gray (8-5, 3.66 ERA): At 31, Gray is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. He doesn't strike out many batters but can induce soft contact and cool the bats of home-run-reliant teams thanks to an elite barrel rate. He comes into today off a terrific start against the San Francisco Giants, in which he allowed no runs in seven spotless innings of work.  

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