The New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics get going for Game 2 of their series in the Bronx tonight after Monday night's thrilling 9-5 victory for the Bronx Bombers.
I wrote yesterday how I didn't know if it would be a straightforward win for the Yankees, but I certainly wasn't anticipating what played out. New York went down early but made a furious rally late with a six-run 7th inning. It brought the Yankees to 54-20 on the season and dropped the A's to 25-50.
Who takes home Game 2 of the series matchup? Find out our MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 28th, 2022.
A's vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened up as firm favorites around -200. By Tuesday afternoon, Oakland has taken some money, and New York has fallen to around -190. The A's return as high as +188.
The total opened at 8.0 and has also stayed there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
A's vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 6/28/2022 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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A's vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Southern California, YES
A's vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Frankie Montas (3-7, 3.21 ERA): Like his counterpart Paul Blackburn yesterday, Montas is having a bit of an underrated season in Oakland overshadowed by the team's struggles. Virtually all of his peripherals are near the top of the league as he excels in getting teams to chase his pitches. As a result, it isn't easy to pick too many holes in his game. He can give up hard contact here and there, but his exceptional strikeout-to-walk ratio makes up for it. His expected ERA and actual ERA are virtually identical.
JP Sears (2-0, 0.00 ERA): Sears will start the game for the Yankees, but it's difficult to say how long he'll go. He made two starting appearances in April and went just one inning in both. After that, he was stretched out in a five-inning start against the Orioles and he's yet to allow an earned run. There's not a ton to know about Sears simply because there isn't much data on him. Sears has a 1.83 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in the minors this year and batters are hitting .162 against him.
Weather
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Key injuries
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Yankees
A's vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Yankees are going against one of the more underrated pitchers in all of baseball. Frankie Montas was sixth in Cy Young voting last season, but it still doesn't feel like he gets enough credit. The numbers aren't incredible, but they are still above average across the board and probably will look better by the season's end. That, coupled with the Athletics' offensive issues against fastball pitchers, make this far from a straightforward handicap. But I'm rolling with the As.
There's too much value to pass up here not to.
Montas is a hot name on any MLB trade market. It's undoubtedly anecdotal, but I love that aspect in a showcase game. The Yankees will surely be buyers around the trade deadline and will be looking for pitching.
Montas's stuff is pretty good and presents issues for Yankees hitters. If he was a lefty, he might be an actual nightmare matchup for the Yankees, but alas will have to look at other elements.
The teams that have hurt Montas have been the ones that make good contact when chasing pitches. The Cleveland Guardians, who make contact on an unbelievable 65% of pitches they chase out of the strike zone, have tagged Montas twice for five runs. Sometimes the angle fits perfectly.
The Yankees, as a collective, have done a great job of this season throughout the season. They rank fifth in baseball. But as of the last 15 days, those numbers have dropped to around 10th in baseball. It's not a strong angle, but the price makes it more appealing. When you've suddenly had midseason struggles to hit balls out of the zone, the last thing you want to see is a pitcher whose strength is doing just that.
My projections give the A's a 40% chance of winning this game throughout 1,000 simulations. Given how highly it views the Yankees, that's eye-opening. The implied probability of the current line is around 38%. It's not a huge edge, and it's not a full-throated recommendation, but I'll take it.
Prediction: A's moneyline (+188 at 888sport)
Over/Under analysis
Now we go from a spot where I don't have much confidence to one I love. I'm riding the Under today and excited to do so.
We've already talked about why I like Montas on the mound today as his stuff is well-suited against even one of baseball's most potent lineups.
Let's talk about Sears, though. There's a ton out there suggesting Sears could have real staying power in the Yankees rotation. Whether that's now or in the future remains to be seen, but the WHIP and ERA are very impressive in a small sample.
The thing that has set him apart from the other Yankees prospects, though, is the fastball. It has 16 inches of vertical drop, giving it a nice "run," and it has a pretty solid velocity to boot. Sears has raved about the Yankees training staff's ability to take the one thing you're good at and highlight it. I expect it to be emphasized more than ever against an A's offense with a league-low .635 OPS against fastball first pitchers.
My projections are seeing about a 20% edge on the current number. I believe the Yankees' bats and stardom have made this line an entire run higher than it should be. Montas' ability and command of the strike zone aren't getting the respect they should.
Prediction: Under 8 (-120 at FanDuel)
Best bet
This is primarily an add-on to the total handicap, but I want to take advantage of these two pitchers on the mound. Because of that, I'm going with the Under on the first five innings total as my Best Bet.
Montas will be sharp out of the gate, given the opportunity to showcase. The A's haven't had much success scoring on any fastball pitcher and if they are to win this game, it is because they stayed tight to take advantage of the Yankees bullpen late.
It won't be because they roughed up Sears. If they can't hit pretty much any MLB fastball pitcher, how can we expect them to have success against a guy with limited film against whom they've never played?
Grab the Under 4.0 runs through the first five innings and get early game cash.
Pick: First five innings Under 4.0 (-110 at DraftKings)
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