It's the end of the weekend, but it comes with a treat when the St. Louis Cardinals meet the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball.
This will be the second of a doubleheader, as yesterday's rainy weather caused a postponement. The Red Sox come into the day as winners of three straight while putting up a lot of runs. My Cardinals vs. Red Sox predictions expect that trend to continue.
I break it all down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet under the prime-time lights on Sunday, April 6th, at 7:08 p.m. on ESPN.
For more on this matchup, don't forget to check out Tom Oldfield's Cardinals vs. Red Sox player prop picks.
Cardinals vs Red Sox prediction for Sunday Night Baseball
My Cardinals vs Red Sox best bet: Red Sox team total Over 4.5 (+100 at Caesars)
Even money on a hot offense to plate five runs? I'm in. The Boston Red Sox reached double-digit scoring in their lone game at Fenway Park this season and are well-equipped to continue putting up big numbers. My projections made this number around 5.3, so I'll happily take this as my best bet.
My prognosis of St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas isn't great, despite a decent season debut. He went just over five innings and allowed only two earned runs on two hits against the Los Angeles Angels.
Suffice it to say, this Red Sox lineup isn't the Angels, and there's much more offensive firepower from top to bottom that can attack a 36-year-old right-hander's weak spots.
Last season continued a two-year decline for Mikolas, at least if you're looking at it from an ERA perspective. That said, he was a bit unlucky, producing an expected ERA that was an entire run lower than his actual ERA. Part of why some of those underlying metrics viewed him more favorably? A ground ball rate that hovered just above league average.
It's only one game. And just as we shouldn't take much from Mikolas allowing just two earned runs, we shouldn't take a ton from this, but producing just a 20% groundball rate against an Angels team that had a Top-5 rate of hitting them a season ago is noteworthy.
Aside from what's laid above about possibilities and projections, there's also enough validity to expect Boston to have a big day based on what we've already seen.
Last season, Mikolas posted one of the highest hard-hit rates of his career, placing him in the bottom 20% of baseball in such categories.
The Red Sox are sixth in hard-hit rate, even with star Rafael Devers having an unsustainably horrific start to the season. In addition to that, a heavy sinker-slider combo should suit the Red Sox hitters well. They could have up to four players in the lineup with a batting average above .300 against breaking balls in the limited data points of this season.
From a scoring perspective for the home team, there's much to like here.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Cardinals vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox team total Over 4.5
Red Sox moneyline
Triston Casas to hit a home run
The Cardinals should be well-positioned to put up some offenses themselves, but it won't be enough to overcome the edge I see the Red Sox have.
This is a good spot for Triston Casas to go deep. The young slugger has just one bomb this season but has hit the ball hard over the last week.
More importantly, remember that sinker-slider combo? He's a big fan. Casas easily leads Red Sox players in hard-hit rate against the sinker. He also finished in the Top 5 against the slider in hard-hit rate last season.
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Cardinals vs Red Sox odds
Cardinals vs Red Sox live odds
Cardinals vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis -110 | Boston -110
- Run line: St. Louis -1.5 (+143) | Boston +1.5 (-169)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Cardinals vs Red Sox trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 2 of their last three games at home (+1.20 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Cardinals vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Sunday, 4-6-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Miles Mikolas (0-0, 3.38 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Hunter Dobbins (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Red Sox latest injuries
Cardinals vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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