The Houston Astros are red hot to begin the season, starting the season with four wins in five games, including a series-opening 2-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday night.
It’s been a rough start for the Diamondbacks, who are 1-4 to begin the season and will be desperate to get back in the win column tonight.
Keep reading our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Diamondbacks to see who has the betting edge.
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Astros vs Diamondbacks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Diamondbacks opened at +137 and are currently lined between +125 and +140 across most books. As always, be sure to line shop. The total opened at 9, where it currently resides across all books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Diamondbacks predictions
Picks made on 4/13/2022 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Diamondbacks game info
• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Wednesday, April 13, 2022
• First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, ATTSN-SW
Astros vs Diamondbacks betting preview
Starting pitchers
Starter TBD: Houston has not officially announced a starting pitcher for this game. All accounts appear to point toward lefty Framber Valdez as the starter. Valdez threw 6 2-3 scoreless innings against the Angels in his first appearance of the season. His first extended stay in the rotation was a successful one in 2021, as he accumulated an 11-6 record, 3.14 ERA, and 8.35 K/9 ratio. The most worrying aspect of his profile is that 21.4% of fly balls resulted in home runs a year ago.
Merill Kelly (0-0, 0.00 ERA): This will be Kelly’s fourth year back in the majors after spending several years overseas suiting up for the KBO. He’s a middle-of-the-road pitcher and an innings eater that doesn’t strike out many batters. In 2021, he managed a 7-11 record and 4.44 ERA across 158 innings with a low strikeout rate of 7.41 K/9. Oddly enough, he’s much more effective against lefties (.235 BA) than righties (.296 BA).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Yordan Alvarez DH (Questionable), Jake Meyers CF (Out), Taylor Jones 1B (Out).
Diamondbacks: Nick Ahmed SS (Out), Jordan Luplow LF (Out), Josh Rojas RF (Out), J.B. Bukauskas RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Diamondbacks are 3-13 in their last 16 interleague home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Diamondbacks.
Astros vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Houston bats are hot to begin the season. They rank eighth in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA to begin the year despite yesterday’s low-scoring affair.
This is a team with a proven track record and a dangerous lineup, and they could do some damage on Wednesday in hitter-friendly Chase Field.
The matchup against Merill Kelly is not particularly daunting. He threw four scoreless innings in his 2022 debut against the Padres. By now, we have enough evidence on Kelly to peg him as a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater who will likely have an ERA in the mid-4s. On top of that, the Arizona bullpen was one of the league's worst a season ago.
Valdez’s peripherals were mostly encouraging a season ago. He strikes batters out and is effective when limiting home runs.
The Diamondbacks’ sole win this season came via a Seth Beer three-run walk-off home run against the Padres — on national beer day, no less. They’ve struggled to generate offense, ranking dead last in wOBA (.247) and wRC+ (55).
All signs point toward the Astros.
Prediction: Astros ML (-149 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
Valdez has been an effective starter during his stay in the rotation and faces off with the MLB’s coldest lineup. One should expect the Astros to limit the Diamondbacks, barring an offensive resurgence.
Kelly is a decent starter, but this Astros lineup is lethal and is a threat to put up a crooked number at hitter-friendly Chase Field.
Either way, we can’t play an Over with this Arizona team until the bats show any signs of life. This has been the worst lineup in the MLB in a brief five-game sample size to open the year, and Valdez is no slouch on the mound.
We haven’t pointed out many positives in Kelly’s game, but he’s arguably the Diamondbacks' best pitcher. Give us the Under.
Prediction: Under 9 (+100 at WynnBet)
Best bet
We’re backing the Astros in this spot. They’re the better team, have the better lineup, and will have the better pitcher on the mound.
The money line looks like it possesses some value across most books, but we’ll be taking the better odds by laying -1.5 on the run line.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
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