Astros vs Mariners Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Houston Fends Off Seattle

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are locked in a battle for the last AL Wild Card, with Houston holding a slim half-game lead entering the last of a pivotal three-game set in Seattle.

Can the Mariners jump the Astros and take over the final wild-card spot with a win on Wednesday?

Let’s break down the MLB odds for Astros vs. Mariners in our MLB picks and predictions.

Astros vs Mariners odds

Astros vs Mariners predictions

The Seattle Mariners continue to stink it up at the plate, posting a measly 86 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Despite a six-run outburst on Tuesday, this team ranks just 23rd in runs scored during that time with a brutal .231/.306/.357 slash line. Somehow, this team grades out as a Top-10 offense for the entire season judging by wRC+, but it feels like every time you look at recent performances, this team is in the bottom half of the league.

Seattle should be minced meat against one of the best pitchers in the American League in Framber Valdez. Typically a ground-ball machine, Valdez has allowed slightly more fly balls and line drives than normal this year, but his 55.1% ground ball rate is still excellent and he’s put together two great months in that department after a steady three-month decline. On top of that, he’s brought his strikeout rate up to 26.9% in the month of September, giving him yet another way to get batters out.

The Mariners have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball and rank dead last in strikeout frequency against lefties. Considering Valdez’s recent run of form, his last outing notwithstanding, I think the Astros should have this one in the bag.

Bryce Miller will be making the biggest start of his career, and he’s really begun to stumble down the stretch with a 5.49 ERA this month. Sure, the opponents have been difficult, but Houston ranks sixth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and could be Miller’s toughest test of the month.

My best bet: Astros moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)

Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay

Astros moneyline

Framber Valdez 6+ strikeouts

Bryce Miller 6+ hits allowed

+360 at DraftKings

We cashed our same-game parlay when previewing Monday’s series opener, and I feel pretty good about wrapping things up with another winner here.

The Astros are an easy choice with Valdez getting things back under control and the wheels falling off the Bryce Miller train. The Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in the league versus left-handed pitchers and have punched out 25% of the time over the last two weeks. Valdez has found his strikeout touch recently, too, racking up 10 in two of his past three starts.

On top of that, Valdez struck out six Mariners in his first start against them earlier this year and five in his second, which could have easily been more if he had lasted more than five innings.

Miller has allowed six hits in five of his last six outings and will be up against an offense hitting .250 over the last two weeks. He is a strike-thrower who is going to be pitching to a team that does a ton of damage when given opportunities.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Despite running rather hot at the plate, the Astros have cashed the Over just twice over the course of their last six games. Seattle, on the other side, has seen the Over cash just five times in the last 13 games. The story here is that the Mariners’ offense has been a thorn in the side of any Over bettor while the Astros’ pitching has kept the total very interesting even with an offense that’s put up consistent results.

So, I do think the Under is a good play here given that trend should continue. Valdez should have the tools to shut down an offense that has struggled to hit for power and struggled to remain disciplined all year long. Miller should struggle a bit, but with an elite bullpen behind him and the possibility of a shutout on the other side, there’s enough reason to think this number is too high.

An interesting note here is that while 61% of the bets on the total at DraftKings have come in on the Over, 59% of the cash is actually on the Under. I’m aligned with the sharps that the Under is of great value.

If you were curious about the splits on the moneyline, 60% of the wagers and 60% of the handle is on Houston.

Trend to know

The Houston Astros have hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 39 away games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners

Astros vs Mariners game info

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.39 ERA): The lefty is coming off one of his worst outings of the year which saw him surrender seven runs to the Kansas City Royals. He still managed to strike out 10 in the start, and despite the brutal line his ERA for the month still stands at 3.42.

Bryce Miller (8-6, 4.17 ERA): The rookie has really hit a wall in September, allowing five or more runs in two of his last three starts. While he remains excellent at limiting walks, Miller’s strikeout numbers have taken a huge dive this month with just 15 in 19 2/3 innings.

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