Two of the best teams in the AL square off on Wednesday night at Camden Yards, where the Baltimore Orioles host the Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland will look to sweep this series with a win tonight, but my Guardians vs. Orioles predictions are betting on the O's to end their five-game losing streak instead. Here are my MLB picks for June 26.
Guardians vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Orioles -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Cleveland Guardians have the best record in the majors, but they have a struggling Carlos Carrasco on the mound tonight, and their Statcast analytics indicate major regression at the plate.
Carrasco is coming off the worst season of his career, pitching to a 6.80 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP in 20 starts with the Yankees. While he hasn't been quite as terrible this year, he still has an ugly 5.40 ERA with an OBA of .274 through 13 starts.
At the plate, the Guardians are second in the majors in scoring with 5.09 runs per game, which is shocking when you consider their peripheral numbers: second-last in barrel rate, 26th in exit velocity, and last in hard-hit rate.
The Baltimore Orioles are the only team in the majors scoring at a higher rate (5.23) than Cleveland, but they back it up with elite analytics: second in the majors in barrel rate and exit velocity while ranking first in hard-hit rate.
The O's also have the edge on the mound with Grayson Rodriguez getting the start. Rodriguez is coming off an ugly performance against the Astros, but he's generally been very effective. He was lit up in a pair of games against Houston and the Angels, but he's pitched to a 2.45 ERA in his other 11 starts, including a sparkling 2.21 ERA at home over six starts.
The O's might have lost their first two games in this series, but they should win by multiple runs tonight.
Guardians vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles -1.5
Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases
The Guardians strike out at the fifth-lowest rate in the majors, but the strikeouts total for Rodriguez is still too low at 4.5. Rodriguez has fanned at least six batters in 10 of 13 starts this year, and he averages 6.5 punchouts per start.
Gunnar Henderson is second on the AL MVP odds board, and he's third in the majors in total bases (185) and slugging percentage (.607). He's been even better this month, slashing .333/.436/.667, and he'll have the platoon advantage against Carrasco.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Orioles odds
Guardians vs Orioles live odds
Guardians vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-140) | Baltimore -1.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +145 | Baltimore -170
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-125) | Under 9 (+105)
Guardians vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the home side, shifting the Orioles from -170 to -190 on the moneyline.
- The Guardians are on a seven-game winning streak and have the best record in the majors at 51-26.
- The Orioles have lost five games in a row but still have the fourth-best record in the majors at 49-30.
- The Guardians are 3-6 in Carrasco's last nine starts with five of those losses coming by multiple runs.
Guardians vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have covered the run line in 41 of their last 71 games (+17.45 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Orioles
Guardians vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSGL, MASN |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Carlos Carrasco (3-6, 5.40 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (8-3, 3.82 ERA) |
Guardians vs Orioles latest injuries
Guardians vs Orioles weather
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