The Houston Astros have all but clinched the AL West title and a first-round bye in the American League playoffs. With just 33 games left on their schedule, the Astros will now have their eyes on securing the top overall seed in the AL. That effort continues Tuesday, as Houston travels to Arlington to take on the struggling Texas Rangers.
Our MLB picks and predictions see value on Houston, though I’ll be steering away from the moneyline tonight.
Astros vs Rangers odds
The Astros opened at -180 on Monday morning at DraftKings. However, there has been clear movement towards the Rangers, and the consensus line sits at around -172 on Houston and as low as -159 at the time of this writing. The total opened at 7, but bettors quickly pushed that number up to 7.5 at all major sportsbooks.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Rangers predictions
Picks made on 8/30/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Rangers game info
• Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
• Date: Tuesday, August 30, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T Sportsnet, Bally Sports Southwest
Astros vs Rangers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Framber Valdez (13-4, 2.65 ERA): Valdez is enjoying the best season of his career in 2022, already setting career highs in strikeouts (142), wins (13), and innings pitched (156) while earning his first All-Star nod. The key to the southpaw's success has been his ability to keep opponents in the yard. Valdez is allowing just 0.4 home runs per nine innings, the best mark in the majors. He has faced Texas three times this season, going 2-0 while allowing just one earned run over 20 innings.
Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.19 ERA): Now in his third MLB season, Dunning continues to be a workmanlike starter who puts up league-average numbers. He ranks second among Rangers starters in innings pitched behind ace Martin Perez, but hasn’t proven he can be the kind of difference maker who can consistently win games for an otherwise poor Texas team. However, he has thrown well against the Astros this year. On June 14, he held Houston to just two hits over six shutout innings in a game the Astros would eventually win 4-3.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Astros are 5-1 in their last six games against the Rangers in Texas. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers
Astros vs Rangers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
With the Astros boasting the best record in the American League and the Rangers sitting at just 58-69, the question isn’t whether Houston should be the favorite here, but by how much. Houston is 10-4 against Texas on the season and 47-27 overall against teams below .500.
The pitching matchup also clearly favors Houston tonight. Valdez has grown into a true frontline starter, joining veteran Justin Verlander to give the Astros two legitimate aces at the top of their rotation. Not only has he been highly effective — throwing to a 2.65 ERA and a 3.18 FIP — but Valdez is also going deep into starts, leading Houston with 156 innings pitched and two complete games.
The biggest advantage Valdez has against the Rangers is his ability to avoid the long ball. Valdez has been the best pitcher in the majors when it comes to suppressing home runs, giving up just seven total (0.4 per nine innings) on the season. Texas relies on homers to power its offense, as the Rangers have gone deep 156 times this season, the eighth-best mark in the majors. With Valdez neutralizing its power, Texas is left with a very mediocre lineup.
While Dunning has pitched more reliably for Texas than his numbers would suggest, he doesn’t rate in the same league as Valdez. Dunning also doesn’t frequently go deep into games, meaning Houston will get the chance to tack on runs against a Rangers bullpen currently missing injured closer Joe Barlow. The Astros are understandably a massive favorite on Tuesday, and while the juice of -159 is lofty, the underdog is simply not the play today.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (-159 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
Virtually every sportsbook has moved the total on this game up from an opening line of 7 to 7.5. That’s great for us, as I want to hit the Under here, and adding an extra half-run only adds more value.
Both Valdez and Dunning have pitched well against the opposing lineup this year. With both having done so over multiple starts, that increases my confidence that they can do it again on Tuesday. Valdez is an absolute stud, but Dunning has proven himself against Houston. He shut down the Astros for six innings in Arlington on June 14, and while we can’t count on that level of success again, he should hold the Houston lineup in check.
Speaking of that Astros lineup, it hasn’t been producing runs at its normal rate over the past month. Houston has scored six or more runs only once in its last nine games and managed just four runs over three games against the Baltimore Orioles this past weekend.
The Astros may also be without designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, who is struggling with a lingering injury to his left hand. That would remove a key left-handed bat from the Houston lineup, which relies heavily on righties like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Even if he plays, Alvarez is hitting just .235 with a .638 OPS in August as he continues to deal with the injury.
Houston should manage to score at least a couple of runs, whether against Dunning or the Texas bullpen. It’s harder to see how Texas can break through against a dominant Valdez, who will likely throw at least seven innings, something he's done in four of his last five outings. There isn’t much scoring in the cards tonight, so I like the Under at -115.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Houston should win tonight against an overmatched Texas team as it continues its push to secure a favorable playoff seeding. While the moneyline looks like a strong option, I feel even better about taking the Astros at -1.5 on the run line at plus money.
Houston has handled the Rangers throughout the season, and there’s no reason to expect anything different on Tuesday night. While Dunning has pitched relatively well as of late, he has still given up at least two runs in eight of his last nine starts.
With Valdez on the mound, even just two runs could be enough to cover the run line. I suspect that the line has moved towards Texas because the Rangers have hit better against left-handed pitching this year. But that modest success doesn’t extend to Valdez, who has allowed a grand total of one earned run to Texas across three starts.
Considering the lopsided pitching matchup in Houston’s favor, I want to extract as much value from this game as possible. That means looking at the run line, where we can get better than even money at most books.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (+110 at WynnBet)
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