We get a preview of a potential postseason matchup when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros for the opener of a three-game set at Tropicana Field.
It should be no surprise that a matchup of two of the best pitching teams in the American League opens this series with a nice low total of 7.0. But even with Houston’s Luis Garcia toeing the rubber against Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen is this number too low for this matchup? And how can we take advantage of that low number?
Check out the best bet for my free MLB betting picks and predictions for this AL throwdown between the Astros and Rays.
Astros vs Rays best odds
Astros vs Rays picks and predictions
The Houston Astros enter this matchup comfortably atop the American League standings at 96-61, having already clinched their spot in the postseason. And it’s not like they’re slowing down, winning seven of their last eight games.
Meanwhile, the Rays are in a tight battle in the AL Wild Card race. The Rays, Blue Jays, and Mariners are all within two games in the standings while Tampa Bay specifically sits a half-game behind Toronto for the all-important top spot.
The opener will see Luis Garcia toe the rubber against Drew Rasmussen and while this total is understandably low, it might be a touch too low.
Houston’s rotation is full of studs, but Garcia is the most gettable. Since the All-Star break, the right-hander has pitched to a 4.70 ERA and is giving up a .265 batting average to opponents. And while the Rays don’t hit for a great average, they are a scrappy, well-coached bunch that still ranks 11th in the MLB in wRC+ when facing right-handed hurlers.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen has been another castoff that the Rays have transformed into another solid starter. The right-hander owns a 2.77 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP this season. That said, he could be due for some regression with an expected ERA is a more manageable 3.43. And we may have seen the beginning of that regression in his last start when he gave up four runs on six hits in four innings against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Now, he’ll have to face another elite lineup that ranks fifth in home runs, sixth in OPS, and eighth in scoring.
This tiny first-five total has a great chance of going Over the number.
My best bet: First five Over 3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Astros vs Rays betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Rays opened this matchup as -120 home favorites and the little action there has been thus far has been on the home team, moving the line to Tampa Bay -125. And while I don’t have an official play on the side for this game, I would look towards taking the value with the underdog Astros.
The starters are much closer to even than the ERAs would indicate. Garcia’s expected ERA is 3.53 compared to Rasmussen’s 3.43. Meanwhile, it’s the Astros who have the much more reliable and dangerous lineup. And even though it’s the Rays who are known for their bullpen, it’s the Astros’ relievers who own the MLB’s top ERA at 2.75 and opponent batting average at .207.
As I said, the starters are close and the Astros have too many edges in the other phases of the game, so getting them at plus money looks like value.
Over/Under analysis
The total hit the board at 7.0 and has yet to move off that number as of Monday afternoon but is juiced to the Under.
We already spoke about why the total is so low. Two solid starters with strong coaching and stronger bullpens. The Astros rank first in reliever ERA, the Rays seventh. But the number feels just a little too low, considering the offensive output available in this matchup. These are teams that rank fifth (Houston) and 11th (Tampa Bay) in wRC+ when it comes to facing right-handed hurlers this season.
The Astros should do enough damage here against a Rasmussen and a Rays bullpen that had to throw a few more pitches than it would have liked over the weekend. While Tampa Bay, which averages 4.29 runs per game should scratch and call a few runs past the plate. The lean is towards the Over in this one.
Astros vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa, FL
• Date: Monday, September 19, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun
Starting pitchers
Luis Garcia (12-8, 4.04 ERA): Garcia has an underwhelming month of August, pitching to a 5.28 ERA, but has responded by starting September off with two solid starts against the Angels, allowing four runs on 11 hits over 12 innings.
Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.77 ERA): Last time out was just the third time all season Rasmussen has allowed four or more runs in a start and ended a run of nine consecutive starts where the right-handed allowed two earned runs or fewer.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2-2 in the Astros' last nine games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rays
