The Tampa Bay Rays have failed to score vs. the Houston Astros through the first two games of this series and could be in trouble again tonight against Lance McCullers Jr. However, it’s the Rays’ starting pitching that I think has the toughest task against this Houston lineup that will likely have Yordan Alvarez back today.
Find out where my best bet lies in my free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs. Rays.
Astros vs Rays best odds
Astros vs Rays picks and predictions
Corey Kluber has been roughed up in two straight starts, getting flamed by both the Rangers and Yankees. In just 6 1-3 innings of work, the righty has been hit 17 times, equaling out to 10 earned runs. These poor performances have driven his ERA all the way up to 4.44.
Kluber could be wearing down late in the season as his inning count is getting up there. He has tossed 148 innings so far this season after 80 last year — and 36 between 2019 and 2020.
With the playoffs a month away, manager Kevin Cash will also want to make sure Kluber is ready to go when it matters most. Shane McClanahan left his last start with another shoulder injury, putting an even bigger strain on a thin Tampa Bay rotation. This is also a bad matchup for the right-hander.
To top it off, Kluber hasn’t hit the 91-pitch mark in 15 straight starts.
My best bet: Corey Kluber Under 16.5 outs (+100 at bet365)
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Astros vs Rays betting preview
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•Moneyline analysis •Over/Under analysis •Trend to know •Game info •Injuries •Weather
Moneyline analysis
The Astros opened as -125 road favorites and have gained a little confidence in the market, moving to -130. They have the starting pitching matchup advantage tonight as well as the edge in offense with Yordan Alvarez likely drawing back in after getting a rest yesterday.
Houston also has the better bullpen (No. 2 per Fangraphs) and the only advantage the Rays have is with home field — sporting a 49-27 record at Tropicana. Unfortunately for them, the Astros are also one of the best road teams in baseball with a similar 48-28 straight up mark.
Lance McCullers Jr. has only made six starts but has looked like the dominant pitcher he was a season ago. The only knock on McCullers here is his walk rate, but he’s also coming off an 11-punchout performance in his last start and has 23 Ks over his last 18-plus innings.
That’s in sharp contrast to Corey Kluber who has been hit extremely hard over his last two starts and has given up 10 runs over his last six-plus innings. He could be slowing down and faces an offense that had no issues vs. Shane McClanahan last night, taking the lefty for five runs over four frames.
This Tampa offense managed just three hits last night and five in the series opener. The Rays have failed to score a run over 18 innings in the series and have scored just one run over their last 23 innings.
Houston closed as a +105 dog on Monday and at +130 last night. This 60-point swing in price is warranted.
Over/Under analysis
Monday’s total closed at 7.0 and then again at 6.5 yesterday. The books aren’t expecting many runs in this series and the struggling Tampa offense isn’t helping bettors who are hitting the Overs on these modest totals.
Over the first two games of the series, the Rays are hitting just .131 (8-for-61) and are 0-for-12 with RISP. The Houston bullpen has been perfect through eight innings of work allowing zero runs, fives hits, and 11 strikeouts. A bet on the Over 7.0 is hoping the Astros’ offense can do most of the heavy lifting.
I’m expecting Kluber to have a shorter leash than usual which would mean more innings for the Rays' bullpen. They're set up today and have the majority of their high-leverage arms available which could make scoring in the later innings tough for both teams with solid stables on both sides.
At 54-87-8 O/U, Houston is the best Under team in baseball while the Rays have also been profitable to the Under at a 65-72-11 O/U.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Astros' last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rays
Astros vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T Sportsnet, Bally Sports
Starting pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. (3-1, 2.34 ERA): McCullers Jr. will be making his seventh start of the season and has gone 34 2-3 innings while striking out 37 batters. He’s seen some weak offenses (OAK x2 and LAA x2) but is stretched out and has 24 punchouts over his last 18-plus innings. He's getting a ton of strikes — both looking and swinging — and THE BAT has him projected for 18.2 outs and just under 6.0 strikeouts. Houston is 4-2 SU over his six starts.
Corey Kluber (10-9, 4.44 ERA): Kluber is coming off two terrible starts where he has given up 17 hits and 10 runs over six-plus innings. Now he faces a deadly Houston lineup that will likely have Yordan Alvarez back after a day off yesterday. Kluber hasn’t topped 90 pitches since June 19 and likely will have a shorter leash today after the Shane McClanahan injury yesterday, as Kevin Cash will want to protect his starter. The Rays are 15-13 SU when Kluber pitches and the righty has not seen the Astros this season.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
